The study presents an extensive System Dynamics simulation model, running up to 2050, employing an agent-based approach and incorporating major factors that influence the technology transition in the ...EU light duty vehicle road transport sector. The model aims at better understanding and analysing market trends. It is a comprehensive representation of EU powertrain technology transition, at member state level, and includes interactions and feedbacks between major stakeholders influencing the evolution of the market shares. The model seeks to integrate a wider range of market, industry and technology dynamics compared to other known models to date. Five scenarios are conducted to explore the dynamics of the powertrain transitions under different oil prices, GDP growth, learning rates, purchase subsidies and EU emission targets. The findings illustrate that the developed model is able to give strategic insights to authorities, manufacturers and infrastructure providers regarding their respective decisions, policies and challenges in relation to medium and long-term trends in the EU road transport sector.
•A simulation model to analyse the trends in the EU passenger road transport sector•Analysis of technology transition in the EU passenger road transport•Understanding of the market dynamics of the future EU road transport sector•Modelling and analysis of interactions between agents in the EU road transport•Scenarios to explore how alternative power-trains may replace conventional vehicles
Nowadays, urban planners and decision-makers are confronted with an increasing number of major urban spaces whose functioning is accompanied by a high density of domestic, private and professional ...activities, all associated with the consumption of fossil fuels and the emission of atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gases. As centers of activity and zones of economic and demographic resources, urban centers stand out as privileged areas for the implementation of local strategies aiming at reducing air pollutant emissions, whether through spatial planning, the evolution of services or the transformation of practices. In this work, we propose a diagnosis of the links between population, urban forms, mobility and air pollutant emissions, using the OLYMPUS activity-based emission model. The model is run over two distinct French regions, Pays de la Loire and Île-de-France, characterized by contrasting urban characteristics in terms of structure, density and accessibility. The results highlight the good transposability of the OLYMPUS model over different territories. Then, the interconnections between the specificities of urban systems on one side and the travel demand, modal share, mobility patterns and total road emissions on the other side, are explored. We notably show that the densification of urban centers exerts a pull on peri-urban areas, generating car trips from the suburbs and worsening air quality in the urban cores. The results underline the importance of targeted emission reduction strategies taking into account the unique characteristics and challenges of specific urban landscapes.
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•Modelling analysis of city design and transportation's impact on emissions•Analyzes environmental effects in two urban areas•Suggests emission reduction strategies for cities•Stresses city planning's role in combating climate change•Identifies key interventions for better urban air quality
As the title suggests, the essay proposes a study of the regulation of the posting of workers in the road-transport sector, in the light of the Directive (EU) 2020/1057, focusing on the main aspects ...of this complex recent regulatory intervention. Taking the cue from a general introduction to transport work, the attention is focused on the 2020 Directive, putting it in relation to two previous ones (Directive 96/71/EC and Directive 2014/67/EU), to then analyze the focal points of the new discipline and then conclude with some critical reflections of a proactive nature, with a view to future interventions in the field.
Urban road transport disruptions caused by urban floods have become severe in the Chinese megacities due to climate change and urbanisation. Urban road planning, design, and land drainage systems are ...insufficiently coping with intense rainstorms, especially in the wet season. This is reflected in more research findings on urban flood impacts and road transport disruption over the past decade. Here we provide a critical overview of current research on urban road inundation, road traffic delays, and accessibility losses under flood conditions, and illustrate up-to-date practices with the relevant governmental institutions. Our review implies that urban flood management in road design is still at an embryonic stage in the Chinese megacities. Hence, we review the lessons and experiences of urban flood impacts on roads in the global context. We argue that it is essential to enhance better co-production practices on emergency responses and recovery measures between authorities, which is vital to improving flood resilience in uncertain climates.
•Recent research studies and practices on urban flood and road transport disruptions are reviewed.•Urban flood management in road design is still at an embryonic stage in Chinese megacities.•International lessons are provided to improve current practices in Chinese megacities.•More resilient flood risk management are recommended in light of uncertain climates.
The environmental effects of increasing CO2 emissions from road transport in port landside area (PLSA) have attracted significant research attention. This study aims to identify the spatial effects ...of CO2 emissions in PLSA by introducing a machine learning approach. A high spatiotemporal precision emissions inventory is constructed using one month of heavy-duty vehicles GPS trajectory data. We develop an eXtreme Gradient Boosting model to assess the spatial effects of CO2 emissions. Our findings indicate that the spatial effects of CO2 emissions in PLSA exhibit non-linear characteristics, identified as four effect ranges in space with corresponding thresholds of 30 km, 150 km, 300 km, and 1200 km. The interaction effects between the distance to port and other variables reveals the spatial thresholds leading to negative effects on CO2 emissions. We propose the concept of a four-tier Landside Emission Control Area and suggest four policy recommendations to promote carbon reduction in PLSA.
The transport sector is responsible for around 20% of global CO2 emissions, and road transport alone contributes to three-quarters of that share. A separate Emissions Trading System (ETS) in the EU ...will be implemented in 2027, covering road transport, buildings and additional sectors (mainly small industry). The likely outcomes of such policy are higher fuel prices, leading to less fuel consumption and reduced road transport emissions. Given that the inclusion of road transport in the EU ETS was originally proposed by the UK in the 2000s, and that the UK is exploring possible improvements to its own UK ETS, it is not impossible that the idea of emissions trading in road transport could be revisited in the UK. This article explores differences in perceptions of fuel price increases as a result of an increase in fuel duties or as a result of the introduction of a parallel ETS for road transport. This research employs a Serious Game to elicit perceptions. The game was designed to create situations where car drivers would need to make decisions in response to an increase in the pump price of fuel. Ultimately, the idea was to get the study participants to reflect on their travel decisions both in the game and in real life. Possible responses included changing their cars, modifying their travel behaviour and moving house. The data was analyzed using an interpretive approach, which contributed to the understanding of how participants experience and rationalize their decisions after fuel price increases. The main finding is that emissions trading seems to be seen more positively than an increase in fuel duties. The study participants associated emissions trading with a reduction in GHG emissions, and fuel duty increases to an increase in pump prices. When they were reminded that emissions trading would also cause pump prices to increase, they still seemed to be open to the idea of such a policy, and when they were reminded that the increase in fuel duties would also be aimed at reducing GHG emissions, they changed their attitude slightly towards a more positive one.
This paper explores the bi-directional long-run relationship between energy consumption in the road transport sector with CO2 emissions and economic growth in OECD countries. Using time series data ...from 1960 to 2008 and employing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares cointegration approach, the paper shows positive significant long-run bi-directional relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, road sector energy consumption and economic growth and CO2 emissions and road sector energy consumption in all the OECD countries. To examine the response of each of the variables to shocks in the value of other variables, the generalized impulse response approach is employed. The response of CO2 emissions to economic growth is initially positive in most cases but it is relatively shorter when compared to its initial response to the road transport sector energy consumption. Moreover, in most cases, the response of carbon emissions to the road transport sector energy consumption lasts longer than its response to economic growth. This implies that most of the CO2 emissions from transport come from energy consumption, thus long-run policies related to the efficient use of energy and shifting to biofuel, renewable and nuclear energy can bring major benefits in mitigating GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions.
•The relationship between GDP, energy and CO2 in OECD's transport is investigated.•The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares cointegration approach was employed.•There is positive long-run bi-directional relationship between the variables.•The response of CO2 to GDP is shorter than its response to the energy consumption.
This study aims to estimate the demand for petroleum products (PP) in the Chadian road sector by 2030 and to determine which of the two models used is the most efficient. The methodology is based on ...two optimised Grey models, namely: the Sequential-GM(1,N)-GA and NeuralODE-GM(1,1) models. These models reduce forecasting errors compared with the conventional Grey model. The forecasts confirm that both models are robust, with MAPEs of 1.16% and 2.5% respectively for gasoline and diesel obtained with the Sequential-GM(1,N)-GA, and 3.3% and 4.8% respectively for gasoline and diesel obtained with the NeuralODE-GM(1,1). We note that the Sequential-GM(1,N)-GA is more robust than NeuralODE-GM(1,1) with regard to MAPEs. The estimated consumption needs for gasoline and diesel in the road transport sector by 2030 are 294376818.5 and 381570061.5 litres respectively for the Sequential-GM(1,N)-GA and 264376818.5 and 375570061.5 litres for the NeuralODE-GM(1,1). Based on these results, securing the supply of PP in the road transport sector requires the development of the downstream petroleum sector. The development of alternative energies and the acquisition of hybrid vehicles. A policy encouraging mass transport in urban areas can considerably reduce energy consumption in this sector. This study adds to the literature through the simultaneous use of two new optimised grey models and their comparison in terms of predicting demand for PP in the Chadian road transport sector.
This study estimates CO2e emissions from road transport in the UK under the Future Energy Scenarios from the National Grid ESO through to 2050, including emissions from electricity generation for EVs ...and tailpipe emissions. In addition, it estimates emissions under a combination of the UK current electricity generation mix with the increase in EVs and the reduction in fossil fuel vehicles assumed under the different scenarios. The main finding is that road transport electrification can save CO2e emissions through 2050 even assuming no further decarbonisation of the power sector. All the Future Energy Scenarios with and without decarbonisation of the power sector and with and without bioenergy with carbon capture and storage see emissions decline. There are, however, important differences in the extent to which emissions decline and the only scenarios that achieve negative emissions from road transport are the scenarios that incorporate bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. This provides an opportunity for the UK government to not just reduce emissions from road transport, but to achieve net zero in road transport, and indeed, to yield negative emissions and compensate for other sectors where emissions are not possible to reduce. Some policy recommendations are also provided.
Megacities are major contributors to global road CO2 emissions, highlighting their pivotal role in achieving low-carbon development. However, comprehensive studies on emission patterns and ...decarbonization strategies in these metropolitan areas remain limited. This study presents a novel and portable big data-based workflow for megacities to reveal their spatiotemporal dynamics of road CO2 emissions and quantify decarbonization potentials associated with inter-city travel and the 15-minute city concept. We take Guangzhou City (China) as a case study. Our results reveal that primary purpose trips produce 17 % more CO2 emissions than secondary trips on average. Inter-city trips account for 36.3 % of the total emissions in the city, and those for primary purposes exhibit closer spatial distributions with intra-city trips. While providing more 15-minute-walk POIs exhibits a marginally diminishing effect on reducing trip average emissions, comprehensive implementation of the 15-minute city concept in Guangzhou can reduce up to 56.3 % of the total emissions from non-home-related passenger trips, with variations observed across different trip purposes (40 %–70 %). A significant “head effect” of decarbonization potential across communities exists for all trip purposes. Our study highlights the environmental limitations of monocentric urban planning models in megacities and contributes valuable insights for crafting effective strategies for sustainable urban development.
•Diversified spatiotemporal patterns of road CO2 emissions in Guangzhou were revealed.•Novel methods were proposed to compare emission disparities between intra-city and inter-city trips.•Decarbonization potential of the 15-minute city concept was quantified in a megacity context.•Efficient paradigms for promoting low-carbon 15-minute city in megacities were proposed.
