The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China’s oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) ...emissions in China’s road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.
•Review of 211 studies on the adoption of theelectric vehicles was presented.•Demographic, situational, contextual, and psychological factors were categorized.•Importance of factors compared to each ...other was discussed.•Regression analysis was the most commonly used data analysis technique.•Theoretical implications and future research directions were presented.
The deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) may mitigate major issues such as environmental pollution and dependence on oil. However, the current market penetration of EV is still at the nascent stage despite many governments employing dynamic advertising policies. This paper empirically investigates the factors influencing a consumer’s intention to adopt an EV. A total of 211 peer-reviewed research articles published between 2009 and 2019 covering the main categories consumer intentions – adoption intention, purchase intention, behavioural intention, and usage intention, – were selected. This study categorises influential factors, into four main types, namely demographic, situational, contextual, and psychological. A comprehensive overview of the theoretical perspectives was also developed to understand adoption behaviour and a consumer’s intentions towards EVs. The findings provide the most common research methodology employed for testing, analysing and comparing the relations among EV factors. A simple meta-analysis shows that the trend of studies on the influencing factors for adopting EVs has increased significantly over the past decade. Finally, this review study has managerial implications and shows future directions for EV researchers and practitioners that may help governments and the automobile industry to increase the usage share of EVs.
The paper proposes a sustainability-oriented assessment through a case study based on the duplication project of one of the most critical federal highways for cargo transport in Southern Brazil, ...considering the most common pavement technologies used in the country. The framework consists of concatenating life cycle impacts determined through life cycle assessment, the corresponding social effects regarding the population's health and well-being, and the life cycle cost. Results show that while hot mix asphalt contributed 30% more to the damage of natural resources, the Portland cement concrete contributed 16% more to harming ecosystem quality and 27% to harming human health. The photochemical oxidation and climate change potential of Portland cement concrete was 33% and 68% higher than those of hot mix asphalt. The toxic substances potentially released in ecosystems were 27% (freshwater), 15% (marine), and 11% (terrestrial) higher for Portland cement concrete. In contrast, ozone layer depletion potential, cumulative energy demand, and net present value were 36%, 29%, and 89% higher for hot mix asphalt, and the acidification and eutrophication impacts surpassed those of Portland cement concrete by 10% and 8%. Maintenance services are the hotspots for both pavement technologies throughout the life cycle. The significance of the proposed framework relies on guiding local strategic initiatives at the government and agency levels, assisting decision-making processes, and designing business models that meet sustainability requirements for road infrastructure in emerging countries where sustainability-oriented practices are not yet consolidated.
Road transport is the main anthropogenic source of NOx in Europe, affecting human health and ecosystems. Thus, mitigation policies have been implemented to reduce on-road vehicle emissions, ...particularly through the Euro standard limits. To evaluate the effectiveness of these policies, we calculated NO2 and NOx concentration trends using air quality and meteorological measurements conducted in three European cities over 26 years. These data were also employed to estimate the trends in NOx emission factors (EFNOx, based on inverse dispersion modeling) and NO2:NOx emission ratios for the vehicle fleets under real-world driving conditions. In the period 1998–2017, Copenhagen and Stockholm showed large reductions in both the urban background NOx concentrations (−2.1 and −2.6% yr−1, respectively) and EFNOx at curbside sites (68 and 43%, respectively), proving the success of the Euro standards in diminishing NOx emissions. London presented a modest decrease in urban background NOx concentrations (−1.3% yr−1), while EFNOx remained rather constant at the curbside site (Marylebone Road) due to the increase in public bus traffic. NO2 primary emissions —that are not regulated— increased until 2008–2010, which also reflected in the ambient concentrations. This increase was associated with a strong dieselization process and the introduction of new after-treatment technologies that targeted the emission reduction of other species (e.g., greenhouse gases or particulate matter). Thus, while regulations on ambient concentrations of specific species have positive effects on human health, the overall outcomes should be considered before widely adopting them. Emission inventories for the on-road transportation sector should include EFNOx derived from real-world measurements, particularly in urban settings.
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•NOx and NO2 reductions were seen in the background of the three cities in 1998–2017.•NO2 primary emissions increased until 2010 due to vehicle after-treatment systems.•EFNOx of the vehicle fleet decreased in Copenhagen (68%) and Stockholm (43%).•London showed the smallest reductions in ambient concentrations and EFNOx.•EFNOx was consistent with on-road studies but higher than simulated by emission models.
In September 2020, the Chinese central government announced a new policy to develop hydrogen energy and fuel cell applications. It emphasized fuel cell commercial vehicles rather than passenger ...vehicles. Such an emphasis is drastically different from the hydrogen and fuel cell strategies of other leading economies. This study aims at providing insights into the justification behind it. It develops quantitative models to conduct economic assessments of the feasibility of hydrogen energy produced from renewable energy and subsequently applied in the road transport sector in China. A well-to-wheel model is developed to estimate the carbon emissions of the hydrogen supply chain as well as that of the fuel cell electric vehicles. In the meantime, a levelised cost of hydrogen model is adopted to analyze the cost of hydrogen as storage for renewable energy. These are followed by a total cost of ownership model applied to assess the cost of owning and driving fuel cell electric vehicle, fueled by the hydrogen produced from renewables, compared to alternative vehicle powertrains, especially those fossil fuel-based. On such a basis, the relation between energy policies and the competitiveness of hydrogen produced from renewable energy and the fuel cell electric vehicle is discussed.
•Green hydrogen in China could be competitive against grey hydrogen in terms of cost.•Fuel cell passenger vehicles are already competitive given high subsidy.•Fuel cell buses and trucks are not competitive yet even with subsidies.•Capital cost of fuel cell vehicles is a more important barrier than hydrogen cost.•Policies to prioritize the support for R&D, supply chain, and new market mechanisms.
Decarbonizing road transport is important for China to achieve carbon neutrality. Road transport decarbonization requires rapid deployment of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, ...expanding demand for critical battery minerals including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. By constructing a novel bottom-up framework that combines Low Emissions Analysis Platform and Vehicle Critical Mineral Demand model, this study assesses China’s road transport decarbonization pathways and critical battery mineral demand under three illustrative scenarios. Results show China’s vehicle stock peaking at 528 million in 2045 and remaining saturated through 2060. Except for diesel-fueled trucks, China’s internal combustion engine vehicles are completely phased out around 2050–2055. Share of oil-derived fuels in China’s road transport energy declines, while share of electricity and hydrogen increases significantly, with electricity and hydrogen together accounting for 57–88% in 2060. China’s road transport CO2 peaks at 977–1,083 Mt in 2028–2032, declining to 62–282 Mt in 2060, with private vehicles, light- and heavy-duty trucks as core mitigation areas. Cumulative demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel from electric-vehicle batteries is estimated at 16.1–19.6 Mt LCE, 0.4–0.55 Mt and 3.3–4.3 Mt by 2060, respectively, indicating a challenge for China’s local mineral supply. Recycling reduces cumulative demand for primary lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources by over 30%, 60% and 60%, respectively.
The last decade was marked by a new boom of popularity for electric transport. Massive government support helped increase EV annual sales from just 2 to over 753 thousands worldwide over the ten ...years. Many countries and private enterprises hold extremely high hopes for electric transport, predicting the imminent abandonment of the internal combustion engines (ICE). Our research shows that in 2018 EVs are yet still unable to compete on equal footing with conventional cars. However, should government and auto manufacturers maintain the current pace of development, true competitiveness between ICE and electric vehicles can be achieved by 2035 even in the low-oil-price environment.
Our calculations indicate that by 2040, depending on the scenario, the EVs can secure an 11–28% share of the global road transport fleet. This will lead to an additional increase in global electricity consumption of 11–20%. The challenge, however, is the adaptation of power grid to the growing demand peaks due to EVs charging patterns. To maintain the course on “green” energy, global leaders in EV adoption need to double the efforts on development and implementation of energy storage technologies, otherwise, the spread of electric cars will lead to more fossil fuel consumption.
•Massive government support was instrumental for EV boom.•EVs are capable of attaining 11–28% of global fleet by 2040.•Expansion of EV fleet can cause significant instabilities in power grid.•EVs can achieve full competitiveness by 2035.
In this study, we use the approach of geospatial and temporal (GeoST) mapping of urban mobility to evaluate the speed-time-acceleration profile (dynamic status) of passenger cars. We then use a ...pre-developed model, fleet composition and real-world emission factor (EF) datasets to translate vehicles dynamics status into real-urban fuel consumption (FC) and exhaustive (CO2 and NOx) emissions with high spatial (15 m) and temporal (2 h) resolutions. Road transport in the West Midlands, UK, for 2016 and 2018 is the spatial and temporal scope of this study. Our approach enables the analysis of the influence of factors such as road slope, non-rush/rush hour and weed days/weekends effects on the characteristics of the transport environment. The results show that real-urban NOx EFs reduced by more than 14 % for 2016–18. This can be attributed to the increasing contribution of Euro 6 vehicles by 63 %, and the increasing contribution of diesel vehicles by 13 %. However, the variations in the real-urban FC and CO2 EFs are less significant (±2 %). We found that the FC estimated for driving under the NEDC (National European Driving Cycle) is a qualified benchmark for evaluating real-urban FCs. Considering the role of road slope increases the estimated real-urban FC, and NOx, and CO2 EFs by a weighted average of 4.8 %, 3.9 %, and 3.0 %, respectively. Time of travel (non-rush/rush hour or weed days/weekends) has a profound effect on vehicle fuel consumption and related emissions, with EFs increasing in more free-flowing conditions.
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•We use GeoSTMUM here to estimate vehicle dynamics with high spatiotemporal resolution.•Telematics data were collected from the West Midlands in the UK for 2016 and 2018.•Real-urban FC and EFs are estimated by vehicle dynamics and real-world measurements.•Fleet renovation reduces real-urban NOx EFs by over 14 % for the studied period.•Road slope has an increasing impact of 2–5 % on the estimated real-urban FC and EFs.
The objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the potential of green hydrogen (H2) as a substitute fuel for Cameroon's road transportation system. To achieve this objective, we start by ...providing a status quo of Cameroon’s road transport. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis on the potential of H2 as a fuel for vehicles. Based on photovoltaic electrolysis, we estimate the amount of H2 needed to fuel vehicles with the associated costs as well as the quantity of carbon emissions that could be reduced in the event of an energy switch over the period 2020-2035. Finally, techno-economic indicators are used to assess the cost-effectiveness of an H2 vehicle in comparison to a petrol car. Results reveal that if a transition were to take place before 2035 the Cameroonian road transport sector would need between 1.75MT and 2.5MT of H2 fuel per year. With this transition, Cameroon could reduce its emissions by around 26% (or 429 megatons of CO2 equivalent). Hydrogen-fuelled vehicles offer the greatest potential for initiating this transition with the current level of technology. Indeed, starting from an investment cost for PV of 0.42 USD/Wp, H2 in a hydrogen-fuelled vehicle can be cost-effective compared with petrol in an internal combustion engine with a PV efficiency of 40%. Therefore, a hydrogen fuel-based transport sector could emerge through technological and production advances. This study contributes to solving the problems related to fossil fuel availability and greenhouse gas emissions arising from the expansion of the road transport sector in Cameroon, envisaging H2 as an alternative fuel.
•The situation of Cameroon's vehicle fleet and its expansion are thoroughly examined.•The challenges of alternative fuels are discussed with highlights on car technologies.•The cost of producing H2 with photovoltaic electrolysis is also studied in this paper.•Cameroon's road transport would need between 1.75MT and 2.5MT of H2 fuel per year.•An H2 transport sector could emerge through technological and production advances.
Road transport is a prominent source of carbon emissions. However, fine-grained regional estimations on road carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are still lacking. This study estimates road CO2 emissions ...in Guangdong Province, China, at high spatiotemporal resolution, with a bottom-up framework leveraging massive vehicle trajectory data. We unveil the spatiotemporal pattern of regional road CO2 emissions and highlight the contrasts among cities. The Greater Bay Area (GBA) is found to produce 76 % of the total emissions, wherein Guangzhou emits the most while Shenzhen has the highest emission intensity. Emission agglomeration is still an under-explored field, which we advance in this paper. We propose Quantile-based Hierarchical DBSCAN (QH-DBSCAN) to explore road CO2 emission agglomeration in GBA. Our method is the first one to identify the specific location and scope of emission hotspots. Emission hotspots exhibit significant concentration on major urban centers. Considering emission characteristics from multiple perspectives, we derive six emission categories, including four emission zones and two emission connectors. The density-based property of our method results in spatially contiguous regions with similar emission patterns. Accordingly, we divide policy zones and propose targeted strategies for road carbon reduction. The study provides new technologies and insights to achieve regional sustainable development.
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•Provide a bottom-up framework for estimating road CO2 emissions based on massive vehicle trajectories•Present a fine-grained spatiotemporal analysis of regional road CO2 emissions•Propose an approach to explore emission agglomeration with hierarchical emission hotspots•Emission patterns are categorized for targeted carbon emission reduction policy making.
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