In dem Artikel wird ein Modell entwickelt, mit dem die Beziehung zwischen persönlichen Ausgaben und Inflationserwartungen getestet wird. Danach ist die Wirkung einer erwarteten Steigerung der Preise ...von dauerhaften Gütern auf die Ausgabenquote signifikant positiv, aber die einer erwarteten Preissteigerung bei Verbrauchsgütern und Dienstleistungen signifikant negativ. Schließlich wirken sich in Übereinstimmung mit Friedmans Hypothese vom permanenten Einkommen Veränderungen des Realeinkommens in signifikanter Weise negativ auf die Ausgabenquote aus.
This report is a case study analyzing key issues--coverage, equity, sustainability--faced by the Brazilian health system in the state of Bahia, in the context of national reforms geared to the ...decentralization of health care. Thus, the report examines the instruments and the incentives in the system to: 1) improve the coverage of the key health interventions that influence the basic health outcomes of the population; 2) reduce the inequality in the distribution of publicly financed health care; and 3)) improve the fianncial sustainability of the health sector through greater efficiency and through improved mechanisms for cost control. Special attention is paid to implementation in Bahia of the latest and most ambitious of the national reforms based on those objectives: the Operational Regulations for Health Care, issued in early 2001 and referred to in this report by its Brazilian acronym, NOAS. NOAS is expected to have a significant impact on the organization of public health care over the next several years. Its main features are described in the Introduction. The structure of the report is as follows: the report has four chapters dealing, respectively, with public sector financing sources and allocation mechanisms in Bahia; Basic health care issues; reforming complex care; and conclusions, recommendation, and options for reform. There are two annexes. the first describes the key issues in health outcomes, and the epidemiological and demographic profile of the state. The second annex summarizes a benefit incidence study of public expenditures in Bahia.
Using pre-war surveys of expenditure an attempt is made to assess the effect of the addition of one or more children on the distribution of expenditure. It is found that the changes between broad ...groups are small. The chief effect is an increased expenditure in the larger families on food and children's clothing, compensated by reduced expenditure on luxuries and adult clothing. It is confirmed that expenditure on accommodation does not rise with family size.
This report seeks to identify policy, and institutional reforms to enhance the efficiency, equity, and effectiveness of public expenditures at the federal, and provincial levels in Argentina. These ...are crucial to generate the kinds of fiscal surpluses needed for fiscal solvency, and macroeconomic stability. Otherwise, efforts to stimulate private-sector-led growth, and generate employment - which are key for sustained poverty reduction - may not succeed. The report analyzes both sectoral, and process-related issues. The sectoral analysis focuses on the major expenditure categories within the social, and infrastructure sectors, which accounts for over 70 percent of total expenditures. Effective provision of social, and infrastructure services is crucial for poverty reduction, equity, and improved living standards. The process-related issues focus on two areas affecting expenditure efficiency, and fiscal solvency: federal-provincial government relations, and public expenditure management. Though important, federal tax policy, and public administration issues are excluded from this report in order to keep its scope manageable. The report further highlights that only the private sector is able to finance Argentina's projected infrastructure investments. To this end, investor confidence will need to be restored, which will in turn, require concluding the renegotiations with private operators, and addressing certain second-generation reforms. The alternative of a return to public ownership, and control is not desirable, given the higher efficiency in the private sector, the other demands on fiscal resources, and problems with public provision of services. As outlined below, what Argentina needs is a fair resolution of renegotiations, better regulatory arrangements, better protection for the poor, and better financing mechanisms.
The concept of stochastic Hicksian aggregation is introduced to eliminate the bias associated with aggregating imperfectly correlated variables. This paper describes stochastic Hicksian aggregation, ...and uses it to estimate demands for groups of goods without assuming separable utility. Separability is a restrictive behavioral assumption that is difficult to test powerfully. In contrast, Stochastic Hicksian aggregation is easily testable without reference to any demand system, and essentially requires only the commonly observed property that within group prices be highly correlated. /// La notion d'agrégation stochastique hicksienne trouve sa raison d'être dans le désir d'éliminer le biais associé à l'agrégation de variables imparfaitement corrélées. On l'utilise pour estimer la demande de groupes de biens sans assumer la séparabilité de l'utilité. La séparabilité est une hypothèse comportementale restrictive qu'il est délicat de tester d'une manière forte. Au contraire, l'agrégation stochastique hicksienne se teste aisément, sans référence à un système de demande. Elle nécessite avant tout une propriété unique, habituelle: qu'à l'intérieur d'un groupe les prix soient fortement corrélés deux à deux.
Problems of identification of equivalence scales, on both philosophical and mathematical grounds, are discussed. Scales are estimated using an Almost Ideal Demand System and data from the 1980's ...United States Consumer Expenditure Survey. Resulting parameter estimates are reasonable for income and demographic effects, but the estimated price elasticities and the scales themselves are less appealing and less robust, especially since the validity of the scale estimates depends on strong assumptions about functional form. /// Les problèmes d'identification d'échelles d'équivalence sont discutés, au niveau philosophique et au niveau de la formalisation mathématique. Les échelles sont estimées en utilisant un Almost Ideal Demand System et les données d'une enquète de 1980 sur les dépenses des Ménages aux États-Unis. Les paramètres estimés sont raisonnables pour les effets revenus et démographiques, mais les estimations d'élasticié en prix et les échelles elles-mêmes sont moins satisfaisantes et moins robustes, en particulier parce que la validité des estimations des échelles dépend d'hypothèses fortes sur les formes fonctionnelles.
