Based on the actual meteorological data that characterize statistically significant changes in the air temperature and the amount of precipitation in the southwest of the Moscow artesian basin, the conditions that form the water balance and groundwater recharge are modeled. The comparison of the calculated longterm average values for the previous (1965–1988) and recent (1989–2012) periods made it possible to estimate the climate changes in the elements of water balance and groundwater recharge. Based on the maps of longterm average groundwater recharge for these periods, which were constructed using the results of modeling, the estimation of the change in natural resources of groundwater in the territory was performed, showing an increase of 9% (780000 m 3 /day).