Salt marshes often undergo rapid changes in lateral extent, the causes of which lack common explanation. We combine hydrological, sedimentological, and climatological data with analysis of historical maps and photographs to show that long‐term patterns of lateral marsh change can be explained by large‐scale variation in sediment supply and its wave‐driven transport. Over 150 years, northern marshes in Great Britain expanded while most southern marshes eroded. The cause for this pattern was a north to south reduction in sediment flux and fetch‐driven wave sediment resuspension and transport. Our study provides long‐term and large‐scale evidence that sediment supply is a critical regulator of lateral marsh dynamics. Current global declines in sediment flux to the coast are likely to diminish the resilience of salt marshes and other sedimentary ecosystems to sea level rise. Managing sediment supply is not common place but may be critical to mitigating coastal impacts from climate change. Plain Language Summary Salt marshes are valuable ecosystems for human societies and are especially vulnerable to losses caused by human activity and climate change. Little is known about how the size of marshes has changed in response to disturbance over large‐ and long‐term scales. We used historical maps and aerial photographs to capture 150 years of change in marsh area extent in 25 estuaries and ca. 100 marshes across Great Britain. We then related the rates of marsh change to existing data on hydrology, biology, climate, sediment supply, and other variables, to find out which elements best explained patterns of erosion and expansion for the period between 1967 and 2016. We found a shift from long‐term marsh erosion in the southeast to long‐term marsh expansion in the northwest of Great Britain. This pattern was explained by a south‐to‐north gradient of increasing sediment flux into marshes and wave fetch lengths which helps transport sediment onto marshes. Our study demonstrates how sediment supply should be monitored and managed to preserve salt marsh extent into the future. Key Points Sea level rise alone does not explain marsh lateral changes over the past 150 years Sediment flux is by far the strongest indicator of long‐term lateral changes in salt marsh extent Small increases in fetch length may boost marsh expansion through stimulating wind‐driven sediment transport onto marshes