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  • Meeting well-below 2°C targ...
    Pai, Sandeep; Emmerling, Johannes; Drouet, Laurent; Zerriffi, Hisham; Jewell, Jessica

    One earth (Cambridge, Mass.), 07/2021, Letnik: 4, Številka: 7
    Journal Article

    To limit global warming to well-below 2°C (WB2C), fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon energy sources. Support for this transition is often dampened by the impact on fossil fuel jobs. Previous work shows that pro-climate polices could increase employment by 20 million net energy jobs, but these studies rely on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) jobs data, assumptions about jobs in non-OECD countries, and a single baseline assumption. Here we combine a global dataset of job intensities across 11 energy technologies and five job categories in 50 countries with an integrated assessment model under three shared socioeconomic pathways. We estimate direct energy jobs under a WB2C scenario and current policy scenarios. We find that, by 2050, energy sector jobs would grow from today's 18 million to 26 million under a WB2C scenario compared with 21 million under the current policy scenario. Fossil fuel extraction jobs would rapidly decline, but losses will be compensated by gains in solar and wind jobs, particularly in the manufacturing sector (totaling 7.7 million in 2050). Display omitted •Implementing the Paris Agreement targets will entail shifts in energy jobs•Globally, we find an increase in direct global energy jobs under well-below 2°C•Over 80% of energy jobs by 2050 are expected to be in renewables•Solar and wind manufacturing sectors will provide millions of jobs globally To keep global warming well-below 2°C, fossil fuels need to dramatically decline and be replaced by low-carbon energy sources. While the technologies to replace fossil fuels are widely available, support for their expansion is often linked to the impact they have on fossil fuel jobs. Here, we analyze this question quantitatively by creating a novel dataset of job footprints in over 50 countries. These job intensities are applied to output from an integrated assessment model. We find that, by 2050, jobs in the energy sector would grow from today's 18 million to 21 million in the reference scenario and even more, to 26 million, under our well-below 2°C scenario. Overall, in 2050, under well-below 2°C scenario, of the total jobs, 84% would be renewable jobs, 11% fossil fuels, and 5% nuclear jobs. While fossil fuel extraction jobs rapidly decline, these losses are compensated by gains in solar and wind jobs, particularly in the solar and wind manufacturing sector. If the world meets the 2°C target, by 2050, there may be an increase in direct energy jobs from today's 18 million to 26 million. While fossil fuel extraction jobs will decline dramatically, renewable energy jobs will expand rapidly. By 2050, we estimate that around 84% of all energy jobs could be in solar and wind generation and manufacturing. While most countries will see net job increase, China and fossil-fuel-exporting countries could witness net job losses.