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Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio
Geophysical research letters, 16 August 2017, Letnik: 44, Številka: 15Journal Article
The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10‐member initial‐condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend. Key Points Realistic simulation of the hiatus in global mean surface temperature is no guarantee that the pattern of temperature trends is reproduced Dynamically induced cooling over Eurasia and North America is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics and tropical Pacific teleconnections Hiatus in global mean surface temperature is due equally to cooling from internal atmospheric dynamics and tropical Pacific teleconnections
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