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  • Molecular Tracing of the Gl...
    Tanaka, Yasuhito; Kurbanov, Fuat; Mano, Shuhei; Orito, Etsuro; Vargas, Victor; Esteban, Juan I.; Yuen, Man–Fung; Lai, Ching–Lung; Kramvis, Anna; Kew, Michael C.; Smuts, Heidi E.; Netesov, Sergey V.; Alter, Harvey J.; Mizokami, Masashi

    Gastroenterology (New York, N.Y. 1943), 03/2006, Letnik: 130, Številka: 3
    Journal Article

    Background & Aims: Molecular evolutionary analysis based on coalescent theory can provide important insights into epidemiologic processes worldwide. This approach was combined with analyses of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiologic-historical background and HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in different countries. Methods: The HCV gene sequences of 131 genotype 1b (HCV-1b) strains from Japan, 38 HCV-1a strains from the United States, 33 HCV-1b strains from Spain, 27 HCV-3a strains from the former Soviet Union (FSU), 47 HCV-4a strains from Egypt, 25 HCV-5a strains from South Africa, and 24 HCV-6a strains from Hong Kong isolated in this study and previous studies were analyzed. Results: The coalescent analysis indicated that a transition from constant size to rapid exponential growth (spread time) occurred in Japan in the 1920s (HCV-1b), but not until the 1940s for the same genotype in Spain and other European countries. The spread time of HCV-1a in the United States was estimated to be in the 1960s; HCV-3a in the FSU, HCV-5a in South Africa, and HCV-6a in Hong Kong in the 1960s, mid-1950s, and late 1970s, respectively. Three different linear progression curves were determined by analysis of the relationship between HCV seroprevalence and HCC mortality in different geographic regions; a steep ascent indicated the greatest progression to HCC in Japan, a near horizontal line indicated the least progression in the United States and the FSU, and an intermediate slope was observed in Europe. Conclusions: These findings strongly suggest that the initial spread time of HCV is associated with the progression dynamics of HCC in each area, irrespective of genotype.