The main purpose of this study was to build multivariate classification models using water quality monitoring data for the hydrographic basin of the Gualaxo do Norte River, Minas Gerais state, Brazil, which was impacted in 2015 by the rupture of a containment structure for iron ore tailings. A total of 27 points were evaluated, covering areas affected and unaffected by the disaster, with monitoring of chemical, physical, and microbiological variables during the period from July 2016 to June 2017. Multivariate classification techniques were applied to the data, with the aim of developing models to determine when the impacted locations would present characteristics equivalent to those existing prior to the rupture. Classification models constructed using PLS-DA and LDA were able to predict three classes: unaffected main river, affected main river, and tributaries. The first technique was able to clearly differentiate the three classes for the data evaluated, achieving averages corresponding to 90% accuracy. The second method was consistent with the first, identifying the chloride content, conductivity, turbidity, and alkalinity as discriminatory variables, among those monitored, with the relationships among the parameters being coherent with the environmental conditions of the region. The model, with a correct classification rate of 91.67%, enabled identification of the behavior of new samples, using only these easily measured variables. In summary, application of the multivariate statistical tools allowed the development of models capable of providing information about the recovery process of an ecosystem impacted by the greatest environmental disaster to have occurred in Brazil. Display omitted •Assessment of the long-term environmental effects of the Fundão dam failure, Brazil.•Multivariate classification models to assess the profile impacted and non-impacted.•Samples collected in the dry season already showed pre-disaster characteristics.