Purpose To determine the association between retinal blood vessel flow and geometric parameters and the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) progression through a 2-year prospective cohort study. Methods Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were recruited from a diabetic registry between November 2017 and March 2019. All participants underwent standardized examinations at the baseline and 2-year follow-up visit, and the presence and severity of DR were assessed based on standard seven-field color fundus photographs. They also underwent swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) imaging to obtain measurements of foveal avascular zone area, blood vessel density (VD), fractal dimension (FD), blood vessel tortuosity (BVT) in the superficial capillary plexus (SCP) and deep capillary plexus (DCP). Results A total of 233 eyes of 125 patients were included, and 40 eyes (17.17%) experienced DR progression within 2 years. DR progression was significantly associated with lower baseline VD (odds ratio OR 2.323 per SD decrease; 95% confidence interval CI 1.456–3.708; P  < 0.001), lower FD (OR, 2.484 per SD decrease; 95% CI 1.268–4.867; P  = 0.008), and higher BVT (OR, 2.076 per SD increase; 95% CI 1.382–3.121; P  < 0.001) of the DCP after adjusting for confounding factors. The addition of OCTA metrics improved the predictive ability of the original model for DR progression (area under the curve AUC from 0.725 to 0.805; P  = 0.022). Conclusions OCTA-derived VD, FD and BVT in the DCP were independent predictors of DR progression and showed additive value when added to established risk models predicting DR progression.