The Arcachon Lagoon on the French Atlantic coast is a triangular shaped lagoon of 20 km on a side connected to the ocean by a 3-km wide inlet between the mainland and an elongated sand spit. This tidal inlet exhibits a particularly active morphology due to locally strong tidal currents and rough wave conditions. During the past 300 years, minimum and maximum spatial extents of the Cap Ferret sand spit have varied by 8 km while one or two channels have alternately allowed circulation between the lagoon and the ocean. These impressive morphological changes have never prevented regular flushing of the lagoon, eventhough the spit came as close as 300 m from the coast during the 18th century. According to Bruun's concept of tidal inlet stability Theory and Engineering (1978), 510 pp., the balance between longshore littoral transport and the tidal prism ensures the perpetuity of the inlet. Process modeling was believed to give better insight into the respective roles of tides and waves in driving the long-term morphological changes of the inlet. A two-dimensional horizontal morphodynamic model was therefore developed, combining modules for hydrodynamics, waves, sediment transport and bathymetry updates. The use of process models at a scale of decades requires a schematization of the input conditions. We defined representative mean annual wave and tide conditions with respect to sediment transport, i.e. conditions that induce the same annual transport as measured in the field. Driven by these representative conditions, simulations run from the 1993 bathymetry show that the tide is responsible for the opening of a new channel at the extremity of the sand spit (where tidal currents are the strongest), while waves induce a littoral transport responsible for the longshore drift of sand bodies across the inlet. One particular simulation consisted in running the model from a hypothetical initial topography where the channels are filled with sand and the entire inlet is set to a constant depth (3 m). The results show the reproduction of a channel and bar system comparable to historical observations, which supports the idea that the lagoon is unlikely to be disconnected from the ocean, provided tide and wave conditions remain fairly constant in the following decades.