Green technology innovation is the strategy adopted by the manufacturing industry in implementing green innovation. Choosing the right green technology innovation path is crucial to the development of green innovation in manufacturing industry. From the perspective of niche theory, the paper constructs the green technology innovation trend indicators of manufacturing industry, and builds a multi-layer comprehensive evaluation model by using cloud model tools. Taking the green technology of manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province as an example, the empirical analysis reveals that from 2012 to 2016, Jiangsu Province manufactures. The ecostate value of green technology innovation has been continuously improving, while the ecorole value has fluctuated. The comprehensive niche score has gradually boosted, indicating that the overall development trend of manufacturing green technology innovation capability in Jiangsu Province goes well. When advancing the level of innovation and formulating green technology innovation capability promotion strategies, macro-control and supervision for Jiangsu Province’s manufacturing green technologies should be emphasized, environmental management optimized, stimulation of green innovative talents strengthened, and green technology R&D and service centers intensified. Create a symbiotic environment, increase cooperation between enterprises, and the government, build a green innovation and cultivation mechanism for manufacturing, and facilitate sustainable development with creative approaches in Jiangsu Province. •Evaluation index system of green technology innovation in manufacturing industry.•Constructs the green technology innovation trend indicators of manufacturing industry from the perspective of niche theory.•Assign different weights to each index by AHP.•Build a multi-layer comprehensive evaluation model by using cloud model tools.