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  • Long-range prediction and t...
    Scaife, Adam A; Baldwin, Mark P; Butler, Amy H; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J; Domeisen, Daniela I. V; Garfinkel, Chaim I; Hardiman, Steven C; Haynes, Peter; Karpechko, Alexey Yu; Lim, Eun-Pa; Noguchi, Shunsuke; Perlwitz, Judith; Polvani, Lorenzo; Richter, Jadwiga H; Scinocca, John; Sigmond, Michael; Shepherd, Theodore G; Son, Seok-Woo; Thompson, David W. J

    Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 02/2022, Letnik: 22, Številka: 4
    Journal Article

    Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.