E-viri
Recenzirano
-
Lu, Qingwen; Zhong, Ping-an; Xu, Bin; Huang, Xin; Zhu, Feilin; Wang, Han; Ma, Yufei
Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), March 2022, 2022-03-00, Letnik: 606Journal Article
•Establishing a risk analysis model for multi-objective flood control operation of a complex reservoir system coupling multi-dimensional uncertainties.•Introducing the initial water level uncertainty to risk analysis for multi-reservoir operation.•Using copula theory to describe the correlation of the errors of reservoir initial water levels and the time-space correlation of flood forecast errors. Many uncertainties are involved in flood control operation of a multi-reservoir system and result in risks for the system. Risk analysis for reservoir flood control operation is essential for decision making. Traditional flood control risk analysis only takes flood forecast error as the main risk source, ignoring the influence of dynamic control of flood-limited water level on reservoir initial water level for flood regulation. In this study, the spatial correlation of reservoir initial water level errors and the spatiotemporal correlation of flood forecast errors are identified via copula function. A risk analysis model considering both upstream and downstream is established for multi-objective flood control operation of a complex reservoir system, coupling multi-dimensional uncertainties of reservoir initial water levels, flood forecast errors, reservoir capacity curve errors, reservoir discharge curve errors and river flood routing errors. The impact of multiple risk sources with spatiotemporal correlations on reservoir flood control operation is then evaluated and the competitive tradeoff between flood control risks in upstream and downstream analyzed. The model is applied to a mixed four-reservoir system in Pi River Basin in China. Results indicated that 1) there is a strong correlation between the reservoir initial water level errors in space and also between the flood forecast errors in space and time, which can be effectively described by copula function, and ignoring the correlations will underestimate the flood control risk; 2) the two objective values of upstream and downstream show a clear competitive relationship, and the solution that prefers one objective has low risk marginal benefit, thus choosing a compromise solution can balance risks; 3) coupling the initial water level uncertainty reduces the flood control risk caused by the flood forecast errors to a certain extent, but also lead to the increase of extreme risk loss.
![loading ... loading ...](themes/default/img/ajax-loading.gif)
Vnos na polico
Trajna povezava
- URL:
Faktor vpliva
Dostop do baze podatkov JCR je dovoljen samo uporabnikom iz Slovenije. Vaš trenutni IP-naslov ni na seznamu dovoljenih za dostop, zato je potrebna avtentikacija z ustreznim računom AAI.
Leto | Faktor vpliva | Izdaja | Kategorija | Razvrstitev | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
Baze podatkov, v katerih je revija indeksirana
Ime baze podatkov | Področje | Leto |
---|
Povezave do osebnih bibliografij avtorjev | Povezave do podatkov o raziskovalcih v sistemu SICRIS |
---|
Vir: Osebne bibliografije
in: SICRIS
To gradivo vam je dostopno v celotnem besedilu. Če kljub temu želite naročiti gradivo, kliknite gumb Nadaljuj.