To assess whether the presence of bone marrow edema (BME) leads to the development of structural lesions at the same anatomical location of the sacroiliac joints (SIJ), and to investigate the association between BME patterns over time and structural lesions in patients with early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Patients with axSpA from the DESIR cohort with ≥2 consecutive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-SIJ were assessed at baseline, 2 and 5 years. MRI-SIJ images were divided into 8 quadrants. The association between BME and subsequent structural lesions (sclerosis, erosions, fatty lesions, and ankylosis) on MRI in the same quadrant was tested longitudinally. Additionally, patients were grouped according to the pattern of BME evolution across quadrants over time (no BME, sporadic, fluctuating, and persistent). The association between these patterns and 5-year imaging outcomes (eg: ≥5 erosions and/or fatty lesions on MRI-SIJ) was tested. In total, 196 patients were included. BME in each quadrant was associated with sclerosis (OR:1.9 (95%CI: 1.1;3.4)), erosions (1.9 (1.5;2.5)) and fatty lesions (1.9 (1.4;2.6)). Ankylosis was uncommon. There was a gradient between increased level of inflammation and subsequent damage: compared to the ‘no BME’ pattern, the sporadic (OR (95% CI): 2.1 (1.0;4.5)), fluctuating (OR:5.6(2.2;14.4)) and persistent (OR:7.5(2.8;19.6)) patterns were associated with higher structural damage on MRI-SIJ at 5-years. In early axSpA, inflammation on MRI-SIJ leads to damage at the quadrant level. The higher the exposure to inflammation across quadrants in the SIJs over time the higher the likelihood of subsequent structural damage, suggesting a cumulative effect. •What is already known on this topic?In axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), the presence of inflammatory lesions at the sacroiliac joints (SIJ) is associated with subsequent structural lesions in general.•What does this study add?This is the first study to show that inflammation leads to subsequent structural lesions (fatty lesions, sclerosis and erosions) at the same anatomical location (quadrant) of the SIJs in patients with early axSpA.The higher the exposure to inflammation in the SIJs over time, the higher the likelihood of subsequent structural damage, suggesting a dose effect.•How this study might affect research, practice or policy - summarize the implications of this studyCurrent findings strengthen the prognostic significance of early detection of bone marrow inflammation in the progression of axSpA and shed new light on the mechanisms of this complex disease.