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Singh, Jitendra; Vittal, H.; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Niyogi, Dev
Geophysical research letters, 16 November 2016, Letnik: 43, Številka: 21Journal Article
Global and local environmental changes are likely to introduce nonstationarity in the characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes. Here we perform a nonstationary frequency analysis on ISMR extremes in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape framework with a cluster of 74 models, considering nonstationarity in different possible combinations. Interestingly, we observe significant nonstationarity in ISMR extremes in urbanizing/developing‐urban areas (transitioning from rural to urban), compared to completely urbanized or rural areas. This presents a postulation that the extent of urbanization plays a significant role in introducing nonstationarity in ISMR extremes. We emphasize the effect of urbanization in changing the character of ISMR extremes, which further needs a scientific re‐evaluation by implementing physics‐based modeling. The impact of these observational studies will be critical in correcting the bias of model projections of ISMR. Key Points Signature of nonstationarity in rainfall extremes is more significant in the developing‐urban areas than in the urbanized and rural areas Extent of urbanization plays a significant role in introducing nonstationarity in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall extremes A framework with a cluster of 74 nonstationary models is proposed to capture both linear and nonlinear changing characteristics of rainfall
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