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Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Tóth, G.; Mullinix, R. E.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.; Gombosi, T. I.
Astrophysical journal/The Astrophysical journal, 01/2017, Letnik: 834, Številka: 2Journal Article
ABSTRACT We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux-rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO/LASCO, and STEREO/COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration, we present a method to derive Gibson-Low flux rope parameters through a handful of observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms is shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 au (see the companion paper by Jin et al. 2016a).
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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in: SICRIS
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