Purpose To assess the effect of different treatment strategies on the risk of subsequent invasive breast cancer (IBC) in women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Methods Up to 15-year cumulative incidences of ipsilateral IBC (iIBC) and contralateral IBC (cIBC) were assessed among a population-based cohort of 10,090 women treated for DCIS in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2004. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate associations of treatment with iIBC risk. Results Fifteen years after DCIS diagnosis, cumulative incidence of iIBC was 1.9 % after mastectomy, 8.8 % after BCS+RT, and 15.4 % after BCS alone. Patients treated with BCS alone had a higher iIBC risk than those treated with BCS+RT during the first 5 years after treatment. This difference was less pronounced for patients <50 years hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.35–3.29 for women <50, and HR 4.44, 95 % CI 3.11–6.36 for women ≥50, P interaction  < 0.0001. Beyond 5 years of follow-up, iIBC risk did not differ between patients treated with BCS+RT or BCS alone for women <50. Cumulative incidence of cIBC at 15 years was 6.4 %, compared to 3.4 % in the general population. Conclusions We report an interaction of treatment with age and follow-up period on iIBC risk, indicating that the benefit of RT seems to be smaller among younger women, and stressing the importance of clinical studies with long follow-up. Finally, the low cIBC risk does not justify contralateral prophylactic mastectomies for many women with unilateral DCIS.