NUK - logo
E-viri
Celotno besedilo
Recenzirano Odprti dostop
  • A model-based strategy for ...
    Escosio, Rey Audie S.; Cawiding, Olive R.; Hernandez, Bryan S.; Mendoza, Renier G.; Mendoza, Victoria May P.; Mohammad, Rhudaina Z.; Pilar-Arceo, Carlene P.C.; Salonga, Pamela Kim N.; Suarez, Fatima Lois E.; Sy, Polly W.; Vergara, Thomas Herald M.; de los Reyes, Aurelio A.

    Journal of theoretical biology, 09/2023, Letnik: 573
    Journal Article

    COVID-19 has affected millions of people worldwide, causing illness and death, and disrupting daily life while imposing a significant social and economic burden. Vaccination is an important control measure that significantly reduces mortality if properly and efficiently distributed. In this work, an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission, incorporating an unreported infectious compartment, is developed. Three age groups are considered: young (0–19 years), adult (20–64 years), and elderly (65+ years). The transmission rate and reporting rate are determined for each group by utilizing the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region in the Philippines. Optimal control theory is employed to identify the best vaccine allocation to different age groups. Further, three different vaccination periods are considered to reflect phases of vaccination priority groups: the first, second, and third account for the inoculation of the elderly, adult and elderly, and all three age groups, respectively. This study could guide in making informed decisions in mitigating a population-structured disease transmission under limited resources. •Age-structured model plays a crucial role in identifying effective interventions.•Population and social structure influence the transmission of COVID-19.•Reporting of probable cases aids in controlling the spread of the disease.•Optimal control theory guides in vaccine allocation strategy given limited resources.