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Wang, Liang; Didelot, Xavier; Yang, Jing; Wong, Gary; Shi, Yi; Liu, Wenjun; Gao, George F; Bi, Yuhai
Nature communications, 10/2020, Letnik: 11, Številka: 1Journal Article
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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in: SICRIS
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