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Sheppard, Richard J; Watson, Oliver J; Pieciak, Rachel; Lungu, James; Kwenda, Geoffrey; Moyo, Crispin; Chanda, Stephen Longa; Barnsley, Gregory; Brazeau, Nicholas F; Gerard-Ursin, Ines C G; Olivera Mesa, Daniela; Whittaker, Charles; Gregson, Simon; Okell, Lucy C; Ghani, Azra C; MacLeod, William B; Del Fava, Emanuele; Melegaro, Alessia; Hines, Jonas Z; Mulenga, Lloyd B; Walker, Patrick G T; Mwananyanda, Lawrence; Gill, Christopher J
Nature communications, 06/2023, Letnik: 14, Številka: 1Journal Article
Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.
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in: SICRIS
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