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Analysis of uncertainties in the process of flood hazard maps elaboration : master thesis no.:98/II. VOI-FRM = Ocena negotovosti pri izdelavi kart poplavne nevarnosti : master thesis no.: 98/II. VOI-FRM
Donevska, Jasna
Flood hazard mapping is an essential component of flood risk assessment, providing valuable information for preventive pre-impact hazard reduction, largely employed in spatial planning, risk ...management, and raising public awareness about flood hazards. Spatial and temporal variation of the natural processes, limited knowledge about the system's physical properties, and insufficient data introduce uncertainties in the modelling chain used to produce flood inundation and hazard maps, hampering flood risk management. This master’s thesis investigates the impact of uncertainties in hydrological and hydraulic parameterization and the related sensitivity of hydrological and hydraulic calculations and modelling on flood hazard mapping. Specifically, uncertainties related to the flow hydrograph shape and peak discharge value and variations in the channel and floodplain Manning's roughness coefficients were propagated through a combined 1D/2D hydraulic model using LiDAR Digital Terrain Model (DTM) combined with geodesy data of the Vipava river channel and detailed land use data. The uncertainty analysis was applied to the case study of the Vipava river, a transboundary river catchment shared between Slovenia and Italy, by comparing the flood extension and spatial distribution of flood hazard classes by performing hydraulic simulations associated with 10-, 100-, and 500-year return periods as specified in the Slovenian legislation. The analysis points out the greatest sensitivity of the results associated with variations in the channel Manning’s coefficients for a 10-year return period event, depicting an increase in the flood extent of 45%. The increase in the inundated areas is smaller for 100- and 500-year floods, amounting to 15% and 11%, respectively. Furthermore, the modelling results confirm the higher impact of the uncertainty in the peak discharge with respect to the impact of varying floodplain Manning’s values, denoting an increase in the flood extension of 9-12% between the 10% and 90% confidence interval values for the different flood occurrence probabilities. The maximum increase in the flood-prone area with the floodplain Manning’s coefficients amounts to 4-6%. Lastly, the impact of the flow hydrograph shape variations appears to be the lowest, depicting a maximum variation in the flood inundation area of 2-3%. All these changes in the overall flood extent are further reflected in variations of flood hazard classes, which are not uniform and not equally distributed for all but depend on the water depth distribution which is considered the dominant criterion for flood hazard classification.
Type of material - master's thesis
; adult, serious
Publication and manufacture - Ljubljana : [J. Donevska], 2022
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