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Predictability of flash flooding in sloping dutch catchments (Rur, Niers and Swalm Rivers) : master thesis = Napovedljivost poplav na hudourniških prispevnih območjih vodotokov Rur, Niers in Swalm na Nizozemskem
Wasim, Syeda Khushnuma
The Dutch province Limburg is characterized by sloping terrain and is therefore prone to serious damages during flash floods. This was also the case for the July 2021 flood event. The study focuses ...on a detailed hydrological analysis and the generation of deterministic flood forecasts of the tributaries of the Meuse River in Limburg (i.e. Rur, Niers and Swalm rivers). For hydrological modeling, the wflow_sbm model was used which is a distributed hydrological model and its parameters were estimated with the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and from Pedo Transfer Functions (PTFs). The horizontal hydraulic conductivity fraction (KsatHorFrac) parameter for the Rur catchment was calibrated to generate deterministic forecasts. Due to the significant difference between the observed and the simulated discharges of the Niers and Swalm catchments it was not possible to calibrate their hydrological models. Probable reasons for this difference can be the effects of ground water abstractions for pit mining and other purposes, frequent mowing management in the Niers catchment etc. Therefore forecasts were generated only for the Rur catchment by coupling the wflow model with Delft-FEWS. The forecasts generated using the DWD ICON dataset showed substantial error when compared to the observed discharge. However, for the flood event of 2021, the model predicted high flows 5-6 days ahead of the flood. There was a large overestimation of the peak for the forecast in downstream of the Rur catchment. The sensitivity of the forecast performance by changing KsatHorFrac was also analysed in the end. The findings of the study show several scopes of improvements in the wflow hydrological modeling and flood forecasting of the Meuse tributaries. Future studies based on these recommendations could aid in providing a more accurate flood prediction in this region.
Type of material - master's thesis
; adult, serious
Publication and manufacture - Ljubljana : [S. K. Wasim], 2022
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