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Modelling and forecasting of traffic flow rate on Slovenian high-ways
Grabec, Igor ; Kalcher, Kurt ; Švegl, Franc
A traffic flow on roads is considered as a non-autonomous dynamic phenomenon that is influenced by population activity which is represented by the hour andcharacter of a day. The flow dynamics is ...described statistically by a non-parametric model for which the information is extracted from records of traffic flow rate. Based on recorded data, the traffic flow generator is modelled by the conditional average estimator. The modelling is demonstrated using traffic flow records from a counter on a Slovenian high-way in the year 2007. The model is further used to forecast the traffic flow rate. Performanceof forecasting is evaluated by the correlation coefficient r of theforecasted and original time series. The mean value r~0.95 indicates a rather accurate modelling. The analysis of r permits tuning of the model to a specific example.
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