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The modelling of manpower by Markov chains - a case study of the Slovenian armed forcesŠkulj, Damjan ; Vehovar, Vasja ; Štamfelj, DarkoThe paper presents a case study of manpower planning for the Slovenian armed forces. First, we identified 120 types of military segments (including civil servants). Next, administrative data were ... used to estimate the transitions between these segments for the 2001-2005 period. Markov chain models were thenapplied and 5-, 10- and 20-year projections were calculated. Various discrepancies were discovered between the projected structures of the military segments and the official targets. Finally, we addressed two optimisation questions: 'Which transitions would lead to the desired structurein five years' time?' and 'Which transitions would sustain the desired structure in the long run?'. A heuristic modelling approach was applied here, i.e. we used a simulation model with a specific loss function. To perform feasible simulations of the probabilities in a 120 x 120 matrix, only those transitions were simulated where experts had previously estimated that real measures existed to provide potential change (recruitment policy, regulation of promotion, retirement strategy etc).Source: Informatica : an international journal of computing and informatics. - ISSN 0350-5596 (Vol. 32, no. 3, Oct. 2008, str. 289-297)Type of material - article, component part ; adult, seriousPublish date - 2008Language - englishCOBISS.SI-ID - 18174950
Author
Škulj, Damjan |
Vehovar, Vasja |
Štamfelj, Darko
Topics
Slovenska vojska |
kadri |
načrtovanje kadrov |
Markove verige |
Slovenian Army |
personnel |
personnel planning |
Mark chains |
Mark chains
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source: Informatica : an international journal of computing and informatics. - ISSN 0350-5596 (Vol. 32, no. 3, Oct. 2008, str. 289-297)
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Database name | Field | Year |
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Links to authors' personal bibliographies | Links to information on researchers in the SICRIS system |
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Škulj, Damjan | 19505 |
Vehovar, Vasja | 10155 |
Štamfelj, Darko | 29785 |
Source: Personal bibliographies
and: SICRIS
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