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How sustainable are fiscal deficits? Evidence from Eastern Europe [Elektronski vir]
Aristovnik, Aleksander
Abstract: In the paper, the author reviews recent literature on fiscal sustainability with particular reference to problems that are specific to emerging economies from Eastern Europe. While the ...original literature on fiscal sustainability chiefly focuses on industrial countries by now a few works have focused on fiscal sustainability in transition countries. Consequently, the paperćs purpose is to assess the short-, medium- and long-term sustainability of fiscal policy (under particular assumptions) at the national level in the majority of Eastern European countries, which we divide into two main groups, i.e. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and Southern and Eastern Europe (SEE). By using mainstream (primary fiscal gap) theory (proposed by Buiter (1983) and Blanchard (1990)), a non-increasing public debt to GDP ratio is seen as a practical sufficient condition for the sustainability of fiscal policy; a country is likely to remain solvent as longas this ratio is not growing. Based on the mainstream theory measures of fiscal sustainability, the results indicate that fiscal sustainability seems to be a problem in many transition countries, particularly in the Visegrad group countries (in CEE region) and in Albania and Croatia (in SEE region).
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