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Projekcije sprememb temperature zraka in padavin v Sloveniji do konca 21. stoletja
Bertalanič, Renato ...
Projekcije sprememb temperature zraka in padavin so bile pripravljene v okviru projekta Ocena podnebnih sprememb za Slovenijo do konca 21. stoletja (OPS21). Spremembe obeh spremenljivk so ocenjene za ...tri 30-letna obdobja v prihodnosti (2011- 2040, 2041-2070 in 2071-2100) glede na primerjalno obdobje 1981-2010. Projekcije kažejo smer in velikost sprememb ter oceno njihove zanesljivosti za tri scenarije izpustov toplogrednih plinov RCP2.6, RCP4.5 in RCP8.5. Temperatura zraka bo v prihodnosti še naprej rasla, velikost dviga pa je odvisna od scenarija izpustov toplogrednih plinov in znaša od 0,8 do 6,1 °C. Dvig temperature bo močno povečal toplotno obremenitev, znatno se bo povečalo število vročih dni, vročinski valovi bodo daljši in bolj pogosti. Višina padavin na letni ravni in pozimi se bo po scenarijih izpustov RCP4.5 in RCP8.5 sredi ali konec 21. stoletja znatno povečala. Kazalniki, s katerimi merimo izjemne padavine, kažejo, da se bosta povečali tako jakost kot pogostost izjemnih padavin, povečanje pa bo najbolj izrazito v primeru scenarija izpustov RCP8.5.
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