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Long-term growth and development of Western Balkan countries
Štiblar, Franjo
"Western Balkan" is a geo-strategic term introduced by the EU in 1990s to encompass Balkan countries which have not yet established formal contractual relations to the EU. The region encompasses ...countries in the territory of ex-Yugoslavia minus Slovenia plus Albania. There are thus six countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia) plus Kosovo as UN protectorate. From the beginning of 2007, the region is fully encircled by EU member countries. Thus, it is expected that sometimes in the future it will join EU. Western Balkan is one of the poorest regions in Europe, second only to the region of ex-Soviet Union countries except Baltics. It was stricken by military activities following a collapse of SFR Yugoslavia during 1990s and remains a serious risk for stability in Europe. Peacekeeping and re-integration to developed Europe are steps towards stabilizing the region. Economic perspective of Western Balkan countries is subject of the paper. Data on Slovenia, EU2 7 and sometimes the USA or the World as a whole are added as benchmarks. Based on in depth assessment of current macroeconomic situation, long term forecasts are made for growth of GDP, population and standard of living (GDP per capita) in the region. The outline of paper is as follows. First, identity card for the members of Western Balkan region is presented, followed by a detailed description of macroeconomic situation. Next, forecasts until 2020 for growth of GDP, population and standard of living are made. They are not available elsewhere. Forecasts of purchasing power parity enhance the forecasts in nominal terms while the contribution of remittances to the available income and standard of living in the region is added at the end.
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