Central Technological Library of the University of Ljubljana (CTK)
13.
Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts [Elektronski vir]
Kobold, Mira ; Sušelj, Kay
The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the ...peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall-runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. Forecasted precipitations are necessary to make hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF model gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/SI model are available for two years ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation in Slovenia region is higher than resolution of any operational meterological model. Therefore the exact location of precipitation can be hard to estimate. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but understimates amount of precipitation in general.
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