FSS, J. Goričar Central Social Sciences Library, Ljubljana (ODKLJ)
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Podaljšana igra v tenisu in Laplaceov demon : diplomsko deloVehovar, Miha, diplomant FDVNapovedovanje izida teniške igre v živo je znanstveno in špekulativno aktualno zgolj zadnjih nekaj desetletij. Trenutni modeli takšnega napovedovanja v znanstveni literaturi temeljijo na verjetnosti, ... da igralec na servisu doseže točko, to verjetnost pa se izračuna že pred začetkom tekme. V literaturi je za takšno napovedovanje najpogosteje uporabljen model markovskih verig, ki predpostavlja, da so prihodnje verjetnosti dogodkov odvisne zgolj od trenutnih stanj in ne od celotne zgodovine rezultata. V diplomskem delu zasnujemo metodo, ki obravnava podaljšano igro, to je trinajsto igro seta. Ta metoda se od obstoječih modelov napovedovanja izida teniške igre razlikuje v dveh temeljnih lastnostih. Prva lastnost naše metode je, da se ne osredotoča na verjetnost, da igralec na servisu doseže točko, kot na osrednjo spremenljivko modela. Druga lastnost naše metode je, da v našem modelu ne predpostavljamo markovske lastnosti, ki pomeni nespominskost procesa (ang. memorylessness), saj želimo pokazati, da na trenutno verjetnost izida vplivajo prav vsa predhodna stanja in ne zgolj trenutno stanje rezultata, kakor to predpostavlja model markovskih verig. S tem postane celota vseh predhodnih stanj naša osrednja spremenljivka, s katero napovedujemo izid. S testom ANOVA tako pokažemo, da so verjetnosti napovedovanja izida podaljšane igre odvisne od celotne zgodovine zaporedja točk in ne zgolj od predhodnega stanja. V diplomskem delu pokažemo tudi, da v podaljšani igri tenisa lahko obstajajo takšne točke, ki za napovedovanje izida teniške tekme nosijo znatno večjo napovedno vrednost od vseh preostalih točk in za katere lahko teoretiziramo njihovo deterministično naravo.Type of material - undergraduate thesis ; adult, seriousPublication and manufacture - Ljubljana : [M. Vehovar], 2020Language - slovenianCOBISS.SI-ID - 36643421
Author
Vehovar, Miha, diplomant FDV
Other authors
Škulj, Damjan |
Matjašič, Miha
Topics
Metodologija |
Methodology |
Tenis |
Tennis |
Diplomska dela |
Graduate theses |
tenis |
podaljšana igra |
modeliranje tenisa v živo |
determinizem |
tennis |
tie break |
in-play modelling of tennis |
determinism
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Database name | Field | Year |
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Links to authors' personal bibliographies | Links to information on researchers in the SICRIS system |
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Vehovar, Miha, diplomant FDV | ![]() |
Škulj, Damjan | 19505 |
Matjašič, Miha | 38368 |
Source: Personal bibliographies
and: SICRIS
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