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Lickley, Megan; Solomon, Susan; Fletcher, Sarah; Velders, Guus J M; Daniel, John; Rigby, Matthew; Montzka, Stephen A; Kuijpers, Lambert J M; Stone, Kane
Nature communications, 03/2020, Volume: 11, Issue: 1Journal Article
Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.
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