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Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20 : a multicentre prospective registration studyPatterson, Christopher C. ...Background: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 yearsis increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enableadequate fund allocation for delivery of care to ... be planned. We aimed toestablish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europeancentres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe. Methods: 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29 311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989-2003. Age-specific log linear rates of increase were estimated in five geographical regions, and usedin conjunction with published incidence rates and population projections to predict numbers of new cases throughout Europe in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Findings: Ascertainment was better than 90% in most registers. All but two registers showed significant yearly increases in incidence, ranging from 0.6% to 9.3%. The overall annual increase was 3.9% (95% CI 3.6-4.2), and the increases in the age groups 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years were 5.4% (4.8-6.1), 4.3% (3.8-4.8), and 2.9% (2.5-3.3), respectively. The number of newcases in Europe in 2005 is estimated as 15 000, divided between the 0-4 year, 5-9 year, and 10-14 year age-groups in the ratio 24%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. In 2020, the predicted number of new cases is 24 400, with a doubling in numbers in children younger than 5 years and a more even distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020. Interpretation: If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. (Abstract truncated at 2000 characters)Vir: The Lancet. - ISSN 0140-6736 (Letn. 373, št. 9680, 2009, str. 2027-2033)Vrsta gradiva - članek, sestavni delLeto - 2009Jezik - angleškiCOBISS.SI-ID - 26733785
Avtor
Patterson, Christopher C. |
Kržišnik, Ciril, 1944- |
Battelino, Tadej |
Bratina, Nada
Teme
Registries |
Age Distribution |
Child |
Child Welfare |
Trends |
Child, Preschool |
Cost Of Illness |
Europe |
Epidemiology |
Forecasting |
Health Planning |
Health Services Needs And Demand |
Incidence |
Infant |
Likelihood Functions |
Linear Models |
Population Surveillance |
Prevalence |
Prospective Studies |
Risk Factors |
Sex Distribution |
Registri |
Starostna porazdelitev |
Prospektivne študije |
Otrok |
Evropa |
Napovedovanje |
Zdravstvene službe, potrebe in zahteve |
Incidenca |
Otrok predšolski |
Dojenček |
Verjetnostne funkcije |
Populacija, nadzor |
Otrok, zaščita |
Stroški bolezni |
Zdravstveno načrtovanje |
Dejavniki tveganja |
Spolna porazdelitev |
Linearni modeli |
Prevalenca
Vnos na polico
Trajna povezava
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Leto | Faktor vpliva | Izdaja | Kategorija | Razvrstitev | ||||
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
Baze podatkov, v katerih je revija indeksirana
Ime baze podatkov | Področje | Leto |
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Povezave do osebnih bibliografij avtorjev | Povezave do podatkov o raziskovalcih v sistemu SICRIS |
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Patterson, Christopher C. | |
Kržišnik, Ciril, 1944- | 02278 |
Battelino, Tadej | 13023 |
Bratina, Nada | 07601 |
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