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  • Continent-wide tree species distribution models may mislead regional management decisions [Elektronski vir] : a case study in the transboundary biosphere reserve Mura-Drava-Danube
    Sallmannshofer, Marcus ...
    The understanding of spatial distribution patterns of native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate species distribution models (SDMs), since riparian forest habitats have a limited spatial ... extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs to be represented in the environmental predictors. However, SDMs are urgently needed for adapting forest management to climate change, as well as for conservation and restoration of riparian forest ecosystems. For such an operative use, standard large-scale bioclimatic models alone are too coarse and frequently exclude relevant predictors. In this study, we compare a bioclimatic continent-wide model and a regional model based on climate, soil, and river data for central to south-eastern Europe, targeting seven riparian foundation species%Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia, F. excelsior, Populus nigra, Quercus robur, Ulmus laevis, and U. minor. The results emphasize the high importance of precise occurrence data and environmental predictors. Soil predictors were more important than bioclimatic variables, and river variables were partly of the same importance. In both models, five of the seven species were found to decrease in terms of future occurrence probability within the study area, whereas the results for two species were ambiguous. Nevertheless, both models predicted a dangerous loss of occurrence probability for economically and ecologically important tree species, likely leading to significant effects on forest composition and structure, as well as on provided ecosystem services.
    Vir: Forests [Elektronski vir]. - ISSN 1999-4907 (Vol. 12, iss. 3, article 330, 2021, 26 str.)
    Vrsta gradiva - e-članek
    Leto - 2021
    Jezik - angleški
    COBISS.SI-ID - 55754243

    Povezava(-e):

    https://doi.org/10.3390/f12030330
    http://dirros.openscience.si/IzpisGradiva.php?id=13789
    https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/3/330
    DiRROS - Digitalni repozitorij raziskovalnih organizacij Slovenije
    DOI

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