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Kumar, Sanjiv; Merwade, Venkatesh; Kinter, James L.; Niyogi, Dev
Journal of climate, 06/2013, Letnik: 26, Številka: 12Journal Article
The authors have analyzed twentieth-century temperature and precipitation trends and long-term persistence from 19 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study is focused on continental areas (60°S–60°N) during 1930–2004 to ensure higher reliability in the observations. A nonparametric trend detection method is employed, and long-term persistence is quantified using the Hurst coefficient, taken from the hydrology literature. The authors found that the multimodel ensemble–mean global land–average temperature trend (0.07°C decade−1) captures the corresponding observed trend well (0.08°C decade−1). Globally, precipitation trends are distributed (spatially) at about zero in both the models and in the observations. There are large uncertainties in the simulation of regional-/local-scale temperature and precipitation trends. The models’ relative performances are different for temperature and precipitation trends. The models capture the long-term persistence in temperature reasonably well. The areal coverage of observed long-term persistence in precipitation is 60% less (32% of land area) than that of temperature (78%). The models have limited capability to capture the long-term persistence in precipitation. Most climate models underestimate the spatial variability in temperature trends. The multimodel ensemble–average trend generally provides a conservative estimate of local/regional trends. The results of this study are generally not biased by the choice of observation datasets used, including Climatic Research Unit Time Series 3.1; temperature data from Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit, version 4; and precipitation data from Global Historical Climatology Network, version 2.
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Dostop do baze podatkov JCR je dovoljen samo uporabnikom iz Slovenije. Vaš trenutni IP-naslov ni na seznamu dovoljenih za dostop, zato je potrebna avtentikacija z ustreznim računom AAI.
Leto | Faktor vpliva | Izdaja | Kategorija | Razvrstitev | ||||
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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Vir: Osebne bibliografije
in: SICRIS
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