Central Technological Library of the University of Ljubljana (CTK)
13.
Uncertainty of predicted precipitation and its consequences in hydrological modelling [Elektronski vir]
Kobold, Mira ; Sušelj, Kay
The hydrological forecasts and warnings issued for flood protection are depending on measured and forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the ...most of the Slovenian rivers, and the distribution of rainfall has high influence to the runoff. The lag time between rainfall and runoff is about few hours or even less and measured on-line data are used only for now-casting. The predicted precipitation is necessary for short-term hzdrological forecast. The global ECMWF model gives general forecast for several dazs ahead while more detailed precipitation data with ALADIN/SI model covering Slovenia are available for two dazs ahead. The variabilitz of precipitation is verz high in Slovenia. Therefore the verification of ECMWF predicted precipitation for Slovenian territorz was performed. The results show that ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctlz, but it is unable to predict amount of precipitation correctlz. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/SI model show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. Hydrological models are tools for generating of runoff. The HBV model was tested on the Savinja River basin as contribution in EFFS project. The HBV models with time steps of one daz and one hour show the applicability of the models for hydrological purposes.
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