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13.
Macroeconomic environment and banking sector results : the case of Slovakia and Slovenia
Festić, Mejra ; Glogovšek, Jože
Exposure to macroeconomic risk factors across banks is a source of systemic risk that influence the quality of the loan portfolio, and an increasing non-performing loans ratio may be a signal of ...deterioration in credit portfolio quality. The list of frequently investigated macro variables includes real GDP, a monetary aggregate, loans to the business sector and households, the unemployment rate, the CPI, the real effective exchange rate, unemployment, the terms of trade, exports, imports, interest rates, investment, savings and the quality of the loan portfolio itself. The GDP growth might improve borrowers' ability to serve their bank loans (Slovenia), meanwhile the accelerating non-performing loans ratio dynamics has failed to support the hypothesis that GDP growth fosters an improvement in non-performing loans ratio in the case of Slovakia. Deceleration in non-performing loans on net export impulses supports pro-cyclical theory in Slovakia and Slovenia. Savings have accelerated NPL ratio in the case of Slovakia.
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