We report on the results of an i-band time-series photometric survey of NGC 2516 using the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) 4-m Blanco telescope and 8k Mosaic-II detector, achieving ...better than 1 per cent photometric precision per data point over 15 ≲i≲ 19. Candidate cluster members were selected from a V versus V−I colour–magnitude diagram over 16 < V < 26 (covering masses from 0.7 M⊙ down to below the brown dwarf limit), finding 1685 candidates, of which we expect ∼1000 to be real cluster members, taking into account contamination from the field (which is most severe at the extremes of our mass range). Searching for periodic variations in these gave 362 detections over the mass range 0.15 ≲M/M⊙≲ 0.7. The rotation period distributions were found to show a remarkable morphology as a function of mass, with the fastest rotators bounded by P > 0.25 d, and the slowest rotators for M≲ 0.5 M⊙ bounded by a line of P∝M3, with those for M≳ 0.5 M⊙ following a flatter relation closer to P∼ constant. Models of the rotational evolution were investigated, finding that the evolution of the fastest rotators was well reproduced by a conventional solid body model with a mass-dependent saturation velocity, whereas core–envelope decoupling was needed to reproduce the evolution of the slowest rotators. None of our models were able to simultaneously reproduce the behaviour of both populations.
We have begun a large-scale photometric survey of nearby open clusters and star-forming regions, the Monitor project, aiming to measure time-series photometry for >10 000 cluster members over >10 ...deg2 of sky, to find low-mass eclipsing binary and planet systems. We describe the software pipeline we have developed for this project, showing that we can achieve peak rms accuracy over the entire data set of better than ∼2 mmag using aperture photometry, with rms <1 per cent over ∼4 mag, in data from 2- and 4-m class telescopes with wide-field mosaic cameras. We investigate the noise properties of our data, finding correlated ‘red’ noise at the ∼1–1.5 mmag level in bright stars, over transit-like time-scales of 2.5 h. An important source of correlated noise in aperture photometry is image blending, which produces variations correlated with the seeing. We present a simple blend index based on fitting polynomials to these variations, and find that subtracting the fit from the data provides a method to reduce their amplitude, in lieu of using techniques, such as point spread function fitting photometry, which tackle their cause. Finally, we use the sysrem algorithm to search for any further systematic effects.
We report on the results of an I-band time-series photometric survey of NGC 2547 using the MPG/ESO 2.2-m telescope with Wide Field Imager, achieving better than 1 per cent photometric precision per ...data point over 14 ≲I≲ 18. Candidate cluster members were selected from a V versus V−I colour–magnitude diagram over 12.5 < V < 24 (covering masses from 0.9 M⊙ down to below the brown dwarf limit), finding 800 candidates, of which we expect ∼330 to be real cluster members, taking into account contamination from the field (which is most severe at the extremes of our mass range). Searching for periodic variations in these gave 176 detections over the mass range 0.1 ≲M/M⊙≲ 0.9. The rotation period distributions were found to show a clear mass-dependent morphology, qualitatively intermediate between the distributions obtained from similar surveys in NGC 2362 and 2516, as would be expected from the age of this cluster. Models of the rotational evolution were investigated, finding that the evolution from NGC 2362 to 2547 was qualitatively reproduced (given the uncertainty in the age of NGC 2547) by solid body and core-envelope decoupled models from our earlier NGC 2516 study without need for significant modification.
Abstract
Variability in the light curves of spotted, rotating stars is often non-sinusoidal and quasi-periodic – spots move on the stellar surface and have finite lifetimes, causing stellar flux ...variations to slowly shift in phase. A strictly periodic sinusoid therefore cannot accurately model a rotationally modulated stellar light curve. Physical models of stellar surfaces have many drawbacks preventing effective inference, such as highly degenerate or high-dimensional parameter spaces. In this work, we test an appropriate effective model: a Gaussian Process with a quasi-periodic covariance kernel function. This highly flexible model allows sampling of the posterior probability density function of the periodic parameter, marginalizing over the other kernel hyperparameters using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. To test the effectiveness of this method, we infer rotation periods from 333 simulated stellar light curves, demonstrating that the Gaussian process method produces periods that are more accurate than both a sine-fitting periodogram and an autocorrelation function method. We also demonstrate that it works well on real data, by inferring rotation periods for 275 Kepler stars with previously measured periods. We provide a table of rotation periods for these and many more, altogether 1102 Kepler objects of interest, and their posterior probability density function samples. Because this method delivers posterior probability density functions, it will enable hierarchical studies involving stellar rotation, particularly those involving population modelling, such as inferring stellar ages, obliquities in exoplanet systems, or characterizing star–planet interactions. The code used to implement this method is available online.
The past two decades have seen a major expansion in the availability, size, and precision of time-domain data sets in astronomy. Owing to their unique combination of flexibility, mathematical ...simplicity, and comparative robustness, Gaussian processes (GPs) have emerged recently as the solution of choice to model stochastic signals in such data sets. In this review, we provide a brief introduction to the emergence of GPs in astronomy, present the underlying mathematical theory, and give practical advice considering the key modeling choices involved in GP regression. We then review applications of GPs to time-domain data sets in the astrophysical literature so far, from exoplanets to active galactic nuclei, showcasing the power and flexibility of the method. We provide worked examples using simulated data, with links to the source code; discuss the problem of computational cost and scalability; and give a snapshot of the current ecosystem of open-source GP software packages. In summary:
GP regression is a conceptually simple but statistically principled and powerful tool for the analysis of astronomical time series.
It is already widely used in some subfields, such as exoplanets, and gaining traction in many others, such as optical transients.
Driven by further algorithmic and conceptual advances, we expect that GPs will continue to be an important tool for robust and interpretable time-domain astronomy for many years to come.
Among the available methods for dating stars, gyrochronology is a powerful one because it requires knowledge of only the star's mass and rotation period. Gyrochronology relations have previously been ...calibrated using young clusters, with the Sun providing the only age dependence, and are therefore poorly calibrated at late ages. We used rotation period measurements of 310 Kepler stars with asteroseismic ages, 50 stars from the Hyades and Coma Berenices clusters and 6 field stars (including the Sun) with precise age measurements to calibrate the gyrochronology relation, whilst fully accounting for measurement uncertainties in all observable quantities. We calibrated a relation of the form P = A
n
× (B − V − c)
b
, where P is rotation period in days, A is age in Myr, B and V are magnitudes and a, b and n are the free parameters of our model. We found
$a = 0.40^{+0.3}_{-0.05}$
,
$b = 0.31^{+0.05}_{-0.02}$
and
$n = 0.55^{+0.02}_{-0.09}$
. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to explore the posterior probability distribution functions of the gyrochronology parameters and we carefully checked the effects of leaving out parts of our sample, leading us to find that no single relation between rotation period, colour and age can adequately describe all the subsets of our data. The Kepler asteroseismic stars, cluster stars and local field stars cannot all be described by the same gyrochronology relation. The Kepler asteroseismic stars may be subject to observational biases; however, the clusters show unexpected deviations from the predicted behaviour, providing concerns for the overall reliability of gyrochronology as a dating method.
ABSTRACT
Binary supermassive black hole (SMBH) systems result from galaxy mergers, and will eventually coalesce due to gravitational wave (GW) emission if the binary separation can be reduced to ...≲0.1 pc by other mechanisms. Here, we explore a gravitational self-lensing binary SMBH model for the sharp (duration ∼1 h), quasi-regular X-ray flares – dubbed quasi-periodic eruptions – recently observed from two low-mass active galactic nuclei: GSN 069 and RX J1301.9+2747. In our model, the binary is observed ∼edge-on, such that each SMBH gravitationally lenses light from the accretion disc surrounding the other SMBH twice per orbital period. The model can reproduce the flare spacings if the current eccentricity of RX J1301.9+2747 is ϵ0 ≳ 0.16, implying a merger within ∼1000 yr. However, we cannot reproduce the observed flare profiles with our current calculations. Model flares with the correct amplitude are ∼2/5 the observed duration, and model flares with the correct duration are ∼2/5 the observed amplitude. Our modelling yields three distinct behaviours of self-lensing binary systems that can be searched for in current and future X-ray and optical time-domain surveys: (i) periodic lensing flares, (ii) partial eclipses (caused by occultation of the background mini-disc by the foreground mini-disc), and (iii) partial eclipses with a very sharp in-eclipse lensing flare. Discovery of such features would constitute very strong evidence for the presence of a supermassive binary, and monitoring of the flare spacings will provide a measurement of periastron precession.
ABSTRACT As the hunt for an Earth-like exoplanets has intensified in recent years, so has the effort to characterize and model the stellar signals that can hide or mimic small planetary signals. ...Stellar variability arises from a number of sources, including granulation, supergranulation, oscillations, and activity, all of which result in quasi-periodic or stochastic behaviour in photometric and/or radial velocity observations. Traditionally, the characterization of these signals has mostly been done in the frequency domain. However, the recent development of scalable Gaussian process regression methods makes direct time-domain modelling of stochastic processes a feasible and arguably preferable alternative, obviating the need to estimate the power spectral density of the data before modelling it. In this paper, we compare the two approaches using a series of experiments on simulated data. We show that frequency-domain modelling can lead to inaccurate results, especially when the time-sampling is irregular. By contrast, Gaussian process regression results are often more precise, and systematically more accurate, in both the regular and irregular time-sampling regimes. While this work was motivated by the analysis of radial velocity and photometry observations of main-sequence stars in the context of planet searches, we note that our results may also have applications for the study of other types of astrophysical variability such as quasi-periodic oscillations in X-ray binaries and active galactic nuclei variability.
ABSTRACT
The two most successful methods for exoplanet detection rely on the detection of planetary signals in photometric and radial velocity time-series. This depends on numerical techniques that ...exploit the synergy between data and theory to estimate planetary, orbital, and/or stellar parameters. In this work, we present a new version of the exoplanet modelling code pyaneti. This new release has a special emphasis on the modelling of stellar signals in radial velocity time-series. The code has a built-in multidimensional Gaussian process approach to modelling radial velocity and activity indicator time-series with different underlying covariance functions. This new version of the code also allows multiband and single transit modelling; it runs on Python 3, and features overall improvements in performance. We describe the new implementation and provide tests to validate the new routines that have direct application to exoplanet detection and characterization. We have made the code public and freely available at https://github.com/oscaribv/pyaneti. We also present the codes citlalicue and citlalatonac that allow one to create synthetic photometric and spectroscopic time-series, respectively, with planetary and stellar-like signals.
We present the results of a systematic search for transiting planets in a ∼5 Myr open cluster, NGC 2362. We observed ∼1200 candidate cluster members, of which ∼475 are believed to be genuine cluster ...members, for a total of ∼100 h. We identify 15 light curves with reductions in flux that pass all our detection criteria, and six of the candidates have occultation depths compatible with a planetary companion. The variability in these six light curves would require very large planets to reproduce the observed transit depth. If we assume that none of our candidates are, in fact, planets then we can place upper limits on the fraction of stars with hot Jupiters (HJs) in NGC 2362. We obtain 99 per cent confidence upper limits of 0.22 and 0.70 on the fraction of stars with HJs (fp) for 1–3 and 3–10 d orbits, respectively, assuming all HJs have a planetary radius of 1.5RJup. These upper limits represent observational constraints on the number of stars with HJs at an age ≲10 Myr, when the vast majority of stars are thought to have lost their protoplanetary discs. Finally, we extend our results to the entire Monitor project, a survey searching young, open clusters for planetary transits, and find that the survey as currently designed should be capable of placing upper limits on fp near the observed values of fp in the solar neighbourhood.
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