The recent influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan and Lebanon has stimulated domestic political action against these countries' governments. This is the dramatic argument at the heart of Anne Marie ...Baylouny's When Blame Backfires. Baylouny examines the effects on Jordan and Lebanon of hosting huge numbers of Syrian refugees. How has the populace reacted to the real and perceived negative effects of the refugees? In thought-provoking analysis, Baylouny shows how the demographic changes that result from mass immigration put stress on existing problems in these two countries, worsening them to the point of affecting daily lives. One might expect that, as a result, refugees and minorities would become the focus of citizen anger. But as When Blame Backfires demonstrates, this is not always the case. What Baylouny exposes, instead, is that many of the problems that might be associated with refugees are in fact endemic to the normal routine of citizens' lives. The refugee crisis exacerbated an already dire situation rather than created it, and Jordanians and Lebanese started to protest not only against the presence of refugees but against the incompetence and corruption of their own governments as well. From small-scale protests about goods and public services, citizens progressed to organized and formal national movements calling for economic change and rights to public services not previously provided. This dramatic shift in protest and political discontent was, Baylouny shows, the direct result of the arrival of Syrian refugees.
The recent influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan and Lebanon has
stimulated domestic political action against these countries'
governments. This is the dramatic argument at the heart of Anne
Marie ...Baylouny's When Blame Backfires .
Baylouny examines the effects on Jordan and Lebanon of hosting
huge numbers of Syrian refugees. How has the populace reacted to
the real and perceived negative effects of the refugees? In
thought-provoking analysis, Baylouny shows how the demographic
changes that result from mass immigration put stress on existing
problems in these two countries, worsening them to the point of
affecting daily lives. One might expect that, as a result, refugees
and minorities would become the focus of citizen anger. But as
When Blame Backfires demonstrates, this is not always the
case.
What Baylouny exposes, instead, is that many of the problems
that might be associated with refugees are in fact endemic to the
normal routine of citizens' lives. The refugee crisis exacerbated
an already dire situation rather than created it, and Jordanians
and Lebanese started to protest not only against the presence of
refugees but against the incompetence and corruption of their own
governments as well.
From small-scale protests about goods and public services,
citizens progressed to organized and formal national movements
calling for economic change and rights to public services not
previously provided. This dramatic shift in protest and political
discontent was, Baylouny shows, the direct result of the arrival of
Syrian refugees.
The role of resources in war has been much debated. What happens when foreign patrons provide lavish amounts of cash to rebels, without mechanisms of accountability? This article analyzes three major ...sources of funding and their micro-level effects on insurgent-groups in the Syrian civil war. Recipients of funding demonstrated opportunism in actions, alliances, and ideologies, directly related to the funding source. Funders thus set the agenda of the war, promoting Islamist ideologies and regional over local issues. Private donors rivaled state sponsors, in what may be a harbinger of future globalization trends.
Jordan's seemingly successful economic and political reforms have been used to advertise the American vision of societal transformation in the Middle East. The imposition of neo-liberal economic ...policies removed a key source of welfare for the populace, leaving the regime without a
secure base of support. Economic liberalization led to a radical change in the regime's base of support, marginalizing the previous regime backers - the East Bank population - and replacing them with a strengthened military, formerly only part of the regime's support. Initial economic
liberalization was a critical juncture when differing outcomes were possible. The 1990s set the institutions and state policies that persisted after these extreme hard times passed. An analytical focus on state social provisioning demonstrates the changed social base of the Jordanian regime
and the groups effectively disenfranchised by the new arrangements. The military and security services are the only sector growing in structural adjustment. Alongside decreasing social welfare allocations in general, the military's budgets are increasing and the military diversifying into
sub-contracting and new economic enterprises. Militarized liberalization serves as an alternative model for Middle East regimes, one that can furnish the foundation for semi-authoritarianism into the near future. This changing social base of the regime, illuminated through an examination of
social welfare, must be recognized when tackling the perennial question of a democratic deficit in the Middle East.
We know little of the internal governing practices of non-state actors once in control of territory. Some territories have witnessed the establishment of new institutions of public goods remarkably ...similar to state institutions. This article compares four armed political parties governing territory during the Lebanese civil war. These non-state violent actors established complex political and economic institutions and administrative structures. Despite the wide range of ideologies and identities of these actors, they all converged in their institutional priorities, although not in their capacities or the particular ways of achieving those priorities. Data from interviews and the actions of the armed political parties suggest a combination of ideology and desire for control is causal in generating public institutions, partly attributable to the high degree of citizen activism marking the Lebanese case.
In 2013, a Jordanian town near Mafraq in the north ran out of water. The villagers barricaded roads and burned tires. This was no ordinary protest: King Abdullah himself came to the scene, assuring ...the villagers he would get water to them in tankers. In a move uncharacteristic of Jordanian politics, the villagers refused. They wanted water piped directly into their houses instead. In the end, the king promised piped water. This negotiation with the king of Jordan, in the area with the country's highest concentration of Syrian refugees, demonstrates a key effect of the crisis: population pressure on scarce resources. In Jordan and Lebanon, the countries most demographically affected by the crisis, the presence of the Syrian refugees has brought to the fore longstanding problems in providing resources to the populace. The refugees did not create the water scarcity, but they did exacerbate it, advancing the timeline for water deprivation. More important, their presence laid bare the inadequacies of the states' infrastructural capacity. Hostility is directed both at the Syrians for using the water and at the governments for mismanaging it, generating the potential for domestic conflict and a crisis of state allegiance. On the other hand, it also provides an opportunity for governments to reform effectively and better govern their people. The proportion of refugees to locals in Jordan and Lebanon dwarfs anything Europe or the United States has experienced: one in four people in Lebanon is Syrian, as is at least one in 10 in Jordan, conservatively. Lebanon has more refugees per capita than any country in the world. The two countries are also water-scarce, though Lebanon's water issues are recent. The sudden influx of refugees highlighted the problem of securing adequate resources, turning water into an unavoidable domestic issue that can no longer be deflected and blamed on a neighboring state (Israel), as it was in the past. The Syrian refugees present an unsustainable burden on crucial resources.But environment is not destiny in this situation. Politics will ultimately decide the future of water in these countries. While they are burdened disproportionately with refugees, they benefit from massive aid from the United Nations and other international organizations thanks to their presence.6 Technological changes, demand moderation and changes in distribution could furnish enough water. However, these would entail fundamental alterations in the nature of the regimes and their support bases. Neither state has been able or willing to confront these core issues, although Jordan has begun to try. The consequences of inaction are stark: water is not a luxury, and its lack holds long-term implications for health, sanitation, development and social movements.
The U.S. Capitol protest and siege in January 2021 provides a vivid demonstration of the challenges posed by managing potentially hostile crowds. Individuals in these crowds are organized into ...identity groups. Crowd participants' emotions, beliefs, objectives and group affiliations are dynamic. Security forces managing such crowds are tasked with the weighty decisions of tactical rules-of-engagement and choice of weapons. We have developed an agent-based simulation modeling the detailed psychological and behavioral dynamics of individuals and groups in a potentially hostile crowd. This crowd is modeled as actively engaging with security forces that protect a compound. The user can specify crowd attributes, choose diverse non-lethal weapons and rules-of-engagement, watch the event play out, and see the impacts on key outcomes of crowd attitudes and actions. We present our prototype simulation and initial experimental results. We then discuss our future plans for this research.
Simple role-play simulations can not only demonstrate the dynamics of a conflict but also create awareness of multiple perspectives even among populations relatively set in their opinions. To teach ...my student population of military officers, I utilize simple, nongame simulations of multisided Middle East conflicts that not only facilitate learning the complex sides but also generate insight and new perspectives. Understanding the motivations of all sides is a prerequisite to analyzing conflicts fully and creating effective policies, necessary skills for military students. The nongame character of these simulations allowed inclusion of the average person; a role generating alternative perspectives, creative thinking, and understanding of the motivations and grievances of disliked groups. Students stated that they now appreciated different claims and the causes of even terrorist group stances, having seen the conflict from the players' points of view. Most students stated that they had not considered the effect on the average person previously, viewing the conflict and potential solutions purely in terms of superpower diplomacy, military actors, terrorist groups, and governmental actions. By not narrowly focusing on diplomatic negotiations, these role-plays spurred insights into the situation on the ground and empathy for the common people.
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