This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has ...been associated with lower growth than expected. The relation is particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may in part reflect learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
This review examines the structural validity of negative symptoms focusing on 2 questions: (1) Do negative symptoms represent a domain separate from other symptoms in schizophrenia? and (2) Within ...negative symptoms, is there a structure that suggests multidimensionality? Results from exploratory and confirmatory factor analytic studies are examined to address these questions. Across studies and symptom instruments, negative symptoms appear to consistently emerge as a factor separate from other dimensions of the illness in schizophrenia. Whether 2-, 3-, or 5-factor models are identified, negative symptoms consistently load on a factor separate from positive symptoms, affective symptoms of depression or anxiety, and symptoms of disorganization. Focusing on negative symptoms themselves, factor analytic findings suggest that this construct is multidimensional with at least 2 factors (involving diminished expression and anhedonia-asociality). Although these factors were replicable, serious limitations were noted in this literature. Thus, 2- (or even 3- or 5-) factor models of negative symptoms should not be considered definitive, but rather all converge to support the general conclusion of the multidimensionality of negative symptoms. The later findings indicate the importance of employing assessments that provide adequate coverage of the broad domain of negative symptoms. Importantly, caution is noted in the interpretability of findings based on existing instruments, and implications for future assessment are discussed.
We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations in which consumers form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect output in the short ...run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in agents' estimates (noise). We show that structural VARs cannot be used to identify news and noise shocks, but identification is possible via a method of moments or maximum likelihood. Next, we estimate our model on US data. Our results suggest that noise shocks explain a sizable fraction of short-run consumption fluctuations. (JEL D84, E13, E21, E32)
We assessed the prognostic value of minimal residual disease (MRD) detection in multiple myeloma (MM) patients using a sequencing-based platform in bone marrow samples from 133 MM patients in at ...least very good partial response (VGPR) after front-line therapy. Deep sequencing was carried out in patients in whom a high-frequency myeloma clone was identified and MRD was assessed using the IGH-VDJH, IGH-DJH, and IGK assays. The results were contrasted with those of multiparametric flow cytometry (MFC) and allele-specific oligonucleotide polymerase chain reaction (ASO-PCR). The applicability of deep sequencing was 91%. Concordance between sequencing and MFC and ASO-PCR was 83% and 85%, respectively. Patients who were MRD– by sequencing had a significantly longer time to tumor progression (TTP) (median 80 vs 31 months; P < .0001) and overall survival (median not reached vs 81 months; P = .02), compared with patients who were MRD+. When stratifying patients by different levels of MRD, the respective TTP medians were: MRD ≥10−3 27 months, MRD 10−3 to 10−5 48 months, and MRD <10−5 80 months (P = .003 to .0001). Ninety-two percent of VGPR patients were MRD+. In complete response patients, the TTP remained significantly longer for MRD– compared with MRD+ patients (131 vs 35 months; P = .0009).
•MRD assessment by sequencing is prognostic of TTP and OS in multiple myeloma patients.•Among patients in complete response, MRD assessment by sequencing enables identification of 2 distinct subgroups with different TTP.
The conductivity of room temperature ionic liquids is not described adequately by the Nernst-Einstein equation, which accounts only for Brownian motion of the ions. We report on the conductivity of ...the ionic liquid 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolum bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl) imide (BMIM TFSI), comparing the known conductivity of this RTIL to the diffusion constants of the cationic and anionic species over a range of length scales, using time-resolved fluorescence depolarization and fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) measurements of chromophores in the RTIL. Our data demonstrate that the diffusional contribution to molar conductivity is
ca.
50%. Another mechanism for the transmission of charged species in RTILs is responsible for the "excess" molar conductivity, and we consider possible contributions.
The conductivity of room temperature ionic liquids is not described adequately by the Nernst-Einstein equation, which accounts only for Brownian motion of the ions.
Negative symptoms in schizophrenia are related to poor functional outcome, persistent over time, a source of burden for caregivers, and only minimally responsive to currently available medications. A ...major challenge to developing efficacious interventions concerns the valid and reliable assessment of negative symptoms. In a recent consensus statement on negative symptoms, a central recommendation was the need to develop new assessment approaches that address the limitations of existing instruments. In the current report, we summarize the background and rationale for the Collaboration to Advance Negative Symptom Assessment in Schizophrenia (CANSAS). The CANSAS project is an National Institute of Mental Health-funded multisite study that is constructing a next-generation negative symptom scale, the Clinical Assessment Interview for Negative Symptoms (CAINS). The CAINS is being developed within a data-driven iterative process that seeks to ensure the measure's reliability, validity, and utility for both basic psychopathology and treatment development research.
Prey species show specific adaptations that allow recognition, avoidance and defense against predators. For many mammalian species this includes sensitivity towards predator-derived odors. The ...typical sources of such odors include predator skin and fur, urine, feces and anal gland secretions. Avoidance of predator odors has been observed in many mammalian prey species including rats, mice, voles, deer, rabbits, gophers, hedgehogs, possums and sheep. Field and laboratory studies show that predator odors have distinctive behavioral effects which include (1) inhibition of activity, (2) suppression of non-defensive behaviors such as foraging, feeding and grooming, and (3) shifts to habitats or secure locations where such odors are not present. The repellent effect of predator odors in the field may sometimes be of practical use in the protection of crops and natural resources, although not all attempts at this have been successful. The failure of some studies to obtain repellent effects with predator odors may relate to (1) mismatches between the predator odors and prey species employed, (2) strain and individual differences in sensitivity to predator odors, and (3) the use of predator odors that have low efficacy. In this regard, a small number of recent studies have suggested that skin and fur-derived predator odors may have a more profound lasting effect on prey species than those derived from urine or feces. Predator odors can have powerful effects on the endocrine system including a suppression of testosterone and increased levels of stress hormones such as corticosterone and ACTH. Inhibitory effects of predator odors on reproductive behavior have been demonstrated, and these are particularly prevalent in female rodent species. Pregnant female rodents exposed to predator odors may give birth to smaller litters while exposure to predator odors during early life can hinder normal development. Recent research is starting to uncover the neural circuitry activated by predator odors, leading to hypotheses about how such activation leads to observable effects on reproduction, foraging and feeding.
Accurate information on the growth rates of fish is crucial for fisheries stock assessment and management. Empirical life history parameters (von Bertalanffy growth) are widely fitted to ...cross-sectional size-at-age data sampled from fish populations. This method often assumes that environmental factors affecting growth remain constant over time. The current study utilized longitudinal life history information contained in otoliths from 412 juveniles and adults of gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, a commercially important species fished and farmed throughout the Mediterranean. Historical annual growth rates over 11 consecutive years (2002-2012) in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean) were reconstructed to investigate the effect of temperature variations on the annual growth of this fish. S. aurata growth was modelled linearly as the relationship between otolith size at year t against otolith size at the previous year t-1. The effect of temperature on growth was modelled with linear mixed effects models and a simplified linear model to be implemented in a cohort Integral Projection Model (cIPM). The cIPM was used to project S. aurata growth, year to year, under different temperature scenarios. Our results determined current increasing summer temperatures to have a negative effect on S. aurata annual growth in the Gulf of Lions. They suggest that global warming already has and will further have a significant impact on S. aurata size-at-age, with important implications for age-structured stock assessments and reference points used in fisheries.
ObjectiveA major barrier to developing treatments for negative symptoms has been measurement concerns with existing assessment tools. Fulfilling the top recommendation of the National Institute of ...Mental Health’s Consensus Development Conference on Negative Symptoms, the Clinical Assessment Interview for Negative Symptoms (CAINS) was developed using an iterative, empirical approach, and includes items assessing motivation, pleasure, and emotion expression. The authors employed multiple analytic techniques to develop the CAINS and here provide final development and validation results.MethodThe CAINS structure, interrater agreement, test-retest reliability, and convergent and discriminant validity were assessed in a large and diverse sample of 162 outpatients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder recruited from four sites.ResultsThree items with poor psychometric properties were removed, resulting in a 13-item CAINS. The CAINS factor structure was replicated, demonstrating two modestly correlated scales: expression (four items) and motivation/pleasure (nine items). The scales demonstrated good internal consistency, test-retest stability, and interrater agreement. Strong convergent validity was demonstrated by linkages with other negative symptom measures, self-report scales of sociality, pleasure, and motivation, and coded facial expressions. Discriminant validity was shown by independence from depression, medication side effects, and cognition. Notably, the CAINS scales were related to real-world vocational, independent living, and social/familial functioning.ConclusionsThe CAINS is an empirically developed and evaluated measure of negative symptoms. Findings indicate that the CAINS is brief yet comprehensive and employable across a wide range of research and clinical contexts.
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