Summary Background Transmission of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus seems to be predominantly between poultry and people. In the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and ...Nanjing—where most human cases of infection have occurred—live poultry markets (LPMs) were closed in April, 2013, soon after the initial outbreak, as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the effect of LPM closure in these cities on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus. Methods We obtained information about every laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported in the four cities by June 7, 2013, from a database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data for age, sex, location, residence type (rural or urban area), and dates of illness onset. We obtained information about LPMs from official sources. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incidence of cases reported in each city on the basis of the assumption of a constant force of infection before LPM closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Findings 85 human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing by June 7, 2013, of which 60 were included in our main analysis. Closure of LPMs reduced the mean daily number of infections by 99% (95% credibility interval 93–100%) in Shanghai, by 99% (92–100%) in Hangzhou, by 97% (68–100%) in Huzhou, and by 97% (81–100%) in Nanjing. Because LPMs were the predominant source of exposure to avian influenza A H7N9 virus for confirmed cases in these cities, we estimated that the mean incubation period was 3·3 days (1·4–5·7). Interpretation LPM closures were effective in the control of human risk of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection in the spring of 2013. In the short term, LPM closure should be rapidly implemented in areas where the virus is identified in live poultry or people. In the long term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of market rest days and central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China–US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; and the US National Institutes of Health.
Summary Background Characterisation of the severity profile of human infections with influenza viruses of animal origin is a part of pandemic risk assessment, and an important part of the assessment ...of disease epidemiology. Our objective was to assess the clinical severity of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus, which emerged in China in early 2013. Methods We obtained information about laboratory-confirmed cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported as of May 28, 2013, from an integrated database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the risk of fatality, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients who required hospital admission for medical reasons. We also used information about laboratory-confirmed cases detected through sentinel influenza-like illness surveillance to estimate the symptomatic case fatality risk. Findings Of 123 patients with laboratory-confirmed avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection who were admitted to hospital, 37 (30%) had died and 69 (56%) had recovered by May 28, 2013. After we accounted for incomplete data for 17 patients who were still in hospital, we estimated the fatality risk for all ages to be 36% (95% CI 26–45) on admission to hospital. Risks of mechanical ventilation or fatality (69%, 95% CI 60–77) and of admission to an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or fatality (83%, 76–90) were high. With assumptions about coverage of the sentinel surveillance network and health-care-seeking behaviour for patients with influenza-like illness associated with influenza A H7N9 virus infection, and pro-rata extrapolation, we estimated that the symptomatic case fatality risk could be between 160 (63–460) and 2800 (1000–9400) per 100 000 symptomatic cases. Interpretation Human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus seem to be less serious than has been previously reported. Many mild cases might already have occurred. Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts are needed to minimise the risk of human infection. Funding Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China–US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; and the US National Institutes of Health.
Summary Background The novel influenza A H7N9 virus emerged recently in mainland China, whereas the influenza A H5N1 virus has infected people in China since 2003. Both infections are thought to be ...mainly zoonotic. We aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics of the complete series of laboratory-confirmed cases of both viruses in mainland China so far. Methods An integrated database was constructed with information about demographic, epidemiological, and clinical variables of laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 (130 patients) and H5N1 (43 patients) that were reported to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention until May 24, 2013. We described disease occurrence by age, sex, and geography, and estimated key epidemiological variables. We used survival analysis techniques to estimate the following distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, onset to laboratory confirmation, admission to death, and admission to discharge. Findings The median age of the 130 individuals with confirmed infection with H7N9 was 62 years and of the 43 with H5N1 was 26 years. In urban areas, 74% of cases of both viruses were in men, whereas in rural areas the proportions of the viruses in men were 62% for H7N9 and 33% for H5N1. 75% of patients infected with H7N9 and 71% of those with H5N1 reported recent exposure to poultry. The mean incubation period of H7N9 was 3·1 days and of H5N1 was 3·3 days. On average, 21 contacts were traced for each case of H7N9 in urban areas and 18 in rural areas, compared with 90 and 63 for H5N1. The fatality risk on admission to hospital was 36% (95% CI 26–45) for H7N9 and 70% (56–83%) for H5N1. Interpretation The sex ratios in urban compared with rural cases are consistent with exposure to poultry driving the risk of infection—a higher risk in men was only recorded in urban areas but not in rural areas, and the increased risk for men was of a similar magnitude for H7N9 and H5N1. However, the difference in susceptibility to serious illness with the two different viruses remains unexplained, since most cases of H7N9 were in older adults whereas most cases of H5N1 were in younger people. A limitation of our study is that we compared laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 and H5N1 infection, and some infections might not have been ascertained. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease and University Grants Committee, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; and the US National Institutes of Health.
Summary Background In December, 2007, a family cluster of two individuals infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus was identified in Jiangsu Province, China. Field and ...laboratory investigations were implemented immediately by public-health authorities. Methods Epidemiological, clinical, and virological data were collected and analysed. Respiratory specimens from the patients were tested by reverse transcriptase (RT) PCR and by viral culture for the presence of H5N1 virus. Contacts of cases were monitored for symptoms of illness for 10 days. Any contacts who became ill had respiratory specimens collected for H5N1 testing by RT PCR. Sera were obtained from contacts for H5N1 serological testing by microneutralisation and horse red-blood-cell haemagglutinin inhibition assays. Findings The 24-year-old index case died, and the second case, his 52-year-old father, survived after receiving early antiviral treatment and post-vaccination plasma from a participant in an H5N1 vaccine trial. The index case's only plausible exposure to H5N1 virus was a poultry market visit 6 days before the onset of illness. The second case had substantial unprotected close exposure to his ill son. 91 contacts with close exposure to one or both cases without adequate protective equipment provided consent for serological investigation. Of these individuals, 78 (86%) received oseltamivir chemoprophylaxis and two had mild illness. Both ill contacts tested negative for H5N1 by RT PCR. All 91 close contacts tested negative for H5N1 antibodies. H5N1 viruses isolated from the two cases were genetically identical except for one non-synonymous nucleotide substitution. Interpretation Limited, non-sustained person-to-person transmission of H5N1 virus probably occurred in this family cluster. Funding Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology; US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases.
Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a common postoperative complication of knee/hip arthroplasty. There is a continued need for artificial intelligence-based methods of predicting lower extremity DVT risk ...after knee/hip arthroplasty. In this study, we performed a retrospective study to analyse the data from patients who underwent primary knee/hip arthroplasty between January 2017 and December 2021 with postoperative bilateral lower extremity venous ultrasonography. Patients’ features were extracted from electronic health records (EHRs) and assigned to the training (80%) and test (20%) datasets using six models: eXtreme gradient boosting, random forest, support vector machines, logistic regression, ensemble, and backpropagation neural network. The Caprini score was calculated according to the Caprini score measurement scale, and the corresponding optimal cut-off Caprini score was calculated according to the largest Youden index. In total, 6897 cases of knee/hip arthroplasty were included (average age, 65.5 ± 8.9 years; 1702 men), among which 1161 (16.8%) were positive and 5736 (83.2%) were negative for deep vein thrombosis. Among the six models, the ensemble model had the highest area under the curve 0.9206 (0.8956, 0.9364), with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score of 0.8027, 0.9059, 0.6100, 0.9573 and 0.7003, respectively. The corresponding optimal cut-off Caprini score was 10, with an area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive values of 0.5703, 0.8915, 0.2491, 0.1937, 0.9191, and 0.3183, respectively. In conclusion, machine learning models based on EHRs can help predict the risk of deep vein thrombosis after knee/hip arthroplasty.
Summary Background Human infections with different avian influenza viruses—eg, H5N1, H9N2, and H7N9—have raised concerns about pandemic potential worldwide. We report the first human infection with a ...novel reassortant avian influenza A H10N8 virus. Methods We obtained and analysed clinical, epidemiological, and virological data from a patient from Nanchang City, China. Tracheal aspirate specimens were tested for influenza virus and other possible pathogens by RT-PCR, viral culture, and sequence analyses. A maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree was constructed. Findings A woman aged 73 years presented with fever and was admitted to hospital on Nov 30, 2013. She developed multiple organ failure and died 9 days after illness onset. A novel reassortant avian influenza A H10N8 virus was isolated from the tracheal aspirate specimen obtained from the patient 7 days after onset of illness. Sequence analyses revealed that all the genes of the virus were of avian origin, with six internal genes from avian influenza A H9N2 viruses. The aminoacid motif GlnSerGly at residues 226–228 of the haemagglutinin protein indicated avian-like receptor binding preference. A mixture of glutamic acid and lysine at residue 627 in PB2 protein—which is associated with mammalian adaptation—was detected in the original tracheal aspirate samples. The virus was sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors. Sputum and blood cultures and deep sequencing analysis indicated no co-infection with bacteria or fungi. Epidemiological investigation established that the patient had visited a live poultry market 4 days before illness onset. Interpretation The novel reassortant H10N8 virus obtained is distinct from previously reported H10N8 viruses. The virus caused human infection and could have been associated with the death of a patient. Funding Emergency Research Project on human infection with avian influenza H7N9 virus, the National Basic Research Program of China, and the National Mega-projects for Infectious Diseases.
PDF
