This paper measures the economic impacts of Brazil's climate mitigation strategies contained in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). To do so, we employ the computable general equilibrium ...MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model and simulate alternative carbon pricing scenarios (sectoral versus economy-wide carbon markets), set to achieve the country's overall emissions targets announced under the Paris Agreement. The results show relatively cheap emissions reductions from land-use changes and agriculture in the short run: the cost of the Brazilian NDC is predicted to be only 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2030. Further efforts to reduce carbon emissions beyond 2030 would require policy changes, since all the potential emissions reductions from deforestation would be finished and the capacity to expand renewable energy sources would be constrained. In this case, an economy-wide carbon pricing system would help substantially to avoid higher compliance costs.
Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large ...differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.
Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Important? Melillo, Jerry M; Reilly, John M; Kicklighter, David W ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
12/2009, Volume:
326, Issue:
5958
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, ...we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.
Using the Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA6) model, this paper assesses Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) cooperation between Brazil and Europe, using harmonised sectoral coverage ...(electricity generation and energy-intensive sectors). Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) related emissions, which are significant in Brazil, are excluded from trading in the analysis, for two main reasons: (i) in an effort to closely align with existing provisions of the EUETS and (ii) to encourage other sectors of the economy to broaden their mitigation effort to comply with national climate targets. As a result, the relatively decarbonised electricity sector and the energy-intensive sectors in Brazil adopt ambitious targets under the proposal. The effects of the proposal are examined under three scenarios: a national ETS policy, a bilateral cooperation, and a global cooperation. Results show that a domestic ETS reduces emissions and promotes technological substitution towards alternative energy for both participants. Cooperation scenarios imply lower emission reductions in Brazil compared to a domestic ETS, where importing allowances from Europe is more cost-effective. For Europe, cooperating with Brazil has very limited impact on further mitigation. The global scenario sees both regions opt to acquire carbon permits from other regions where abatement costs are lower.
•National ETS reduces emissions and increases alternative energy in Brazil and EU.•Brazil imports allowances more cost effectively from EU in linked scenario.•For EU, linking with Brazil has very limited impact on further mitigation.•Both EU and Brazil opt to purchase allowances from other regions in global scenario.•Brazil should consider including LULUCF related emissions in ETS Policy.
•An ETS linkage of brazil with a developed region (Europe) and two developing regions (Latin america and China) would increase opportunities for mitigation at lower cost.•Brazil exhibits a ...permit-importer profile in all linkage scenarios.•The magnitude of the ETS linkage effects varies according to the partner energy profile, macroeconomic development and mitigation commitments.•Matching with a trading partner suitable in the selected priorities (economic performance, environment outcomes and political acceptance) is recommended.•Brazil should consider including land use and forestry-related emissions in ETS policy and linkage agreement.
The Paris Agreement has recently underlined the relevance of international cooperation via carbon pricing to tackle climate change. With Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) emerging in developed and developing regions worldwide, linking ETS systems is likely to be necessary in the future. This raises the question as to the appropriateness of linking ETS systems from the perspective of each trading partner. This paper analyses the impact of a hypothetical ETS, covering the electricity and energy-intensive sectors of Brazil, using a global economy-wide model - the EPPA6. We simulate links for Brazil with a developed region (Europe) and two developing regions (Latin America and China). Linking Brazil with a heterogeneous partner such as Europe results in more substantial emissions reductions, a movement towards low carbon energy and losses in GDP and welfare, as both regions assume ambitious targets. Linking with China is less costly due to less stringent targets. A link with Latin America, a region of similar energy and economic profile to Brazil, produces moderate reductions. Accordingly, there are advantages and disadvantages associated with each proposed trading situation. An ETS with a less stringent cap, or one that encompasses additional sectors, might allow for mitigation opportunities at lower costs for Brazil.
This paper assesses the distributional effects of carbon pricing on Brazilian households. We apply a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with representation of multiple ...households according to a family expenditure survey. Important questions for policy makers in Brazil are addressed. What are the economic effects of introducing carbon pricing in Brazil? Is there a double dividend, with economic and environmental benefits, when carbon revenue is recycled through tax rebates? Could carbon revenue contribute to the financing of social spending and to income distribution improvements in Brazil? Results show that carbon pricing avoids further carbon intensive infrastructure lock-in by further promoting biomass in electricity generation and biofuels in the transportation sector. Lump-sum transfers from carbon revenue help boosting income of lower deciles up to +4.5%, while targeting transfers to most vulnerable groups leads to an income growth of +42.2% by 2030. Brazil has a large gap in terms of effective carbon pricing when compared to other countries that could be addressed in the context of the ongoing tax reform debate, with carbon revenue contributing to the financing of social spending. Our analysis examines different policy design options and contribute to the debate about fiscal reform and socioeconomic effects of carbon pricing in Brazil.
•Carbon pricing could finance social spending by adding nearly USD 140 to households' budget under the extreme poverty line.•Source-side impacts prevail, leading to progressive effects in lump-sum scenarios.•Welfare gains are restricted to a few low-income deciles and suggest a double dividend in its weak form.•Moderate GDP growth is found for Brazil, mainly driven by trade effects, due to worldwide carbon pricing.
Land use in the United States (US) is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, such as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, ...and changing diets. Future land use has implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slight increases in grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends to intensify under higher pressures for agriculture land and reduce under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture activities, and CO2 emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under land use forcing scenarios.
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•Land use changes in the US depend on global economic and environmental pressures•Pasture and grassland expand under higher economic and population growth•Increase in livestock and fertilizer use brings challenging environmental outcomes•Complex systems interactions where resilience in one system shifts forces to others
Earth sciences; Agricultural science; Agricultural economics; Land use.
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to ...different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land.We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.
•Recreation use of New England natural lands valued at $56–88 billion•Applying the travel cost method with a Poisson regression model•Data from the National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, & ...Wildlife-Associated Recreation•Home region, race, and population density play a role in shaping recreation habits
It is well recognized that natural land is of great importance, and measures of the value of natural lands are required when making data-driven policy decisions between land development and land preservation. One of the most important values of natural land areas is the recreational services provided. In this study, we estimate the recreation use value provided by the natural land in New England. Specifically, we apply the travel cost method to calculate the total consumer surplus for hunting, fishing, and wildlife-watching in the New England region. We also investigate whether and how people from households of different demographic backgrounds have different recreational habits. Using data from the National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, & Wildlife-Associated Recreation, we found that New England natural lands provide a remarkable amount of recreation use value—$88 billion per year to U.S. citizens who partake in wildlife-related activities. Our estimates can serve as input for economic projection and policy analysis models and allow more equitable and appropriate data-driven policy decisions.
Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon ...dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO
sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.
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