Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of ...methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.
We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the ...first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km2) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.
Display omitted
•Climate change may increase pollutant transfers from agricultural land.•High temporal resolution data enabled present day nutrient dynamics to be analysed.•High flow events (>Q10) transported >90% of sediment, >80% of phosphorus•Longer periods of low flow and high concentration will increase ecological risk.•Average phosphorus loads may increase by 9% with higher rainfall volume and intensity.
The Mediterranean troposphere exhibits a marked and localised summertime ozone maximum, which has the potential to strongly impact regional air quality and radiative forcing. The Mediterranean region ...can be perturbed by long-range pollution import from Northern Europe, North America and Asia, in addition to local emissions, which may all contribute to regional ozone enhancements. We exploit ozone profile observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) satellite instruments, and an offline 3-D global chemical transport model (TOMCAT) to investigate the geographical and vertical structure of the summertime tropospheric ozone maximum over the Mediterranean region. We show that both TES and GOME-2 are able to detect enhanced levels of ozone in the lower troposphere over the region during the summer. These observations, together with surface measurements, are used to evaluate the TOMCAT model's ability to capture the observed ozone enhancement. The model is used to quantify sensitivities of the ozone maximum to anthropogenic and natural volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, anthropogenic NOx emissions, wildfire emissions and long-range import of ozone and precursors. Our results show a dominant sensitivity to natural VOC emissions in the Mediterranean basin over anthropogenic VOC emissions. However, local anthropogenic NOx emissions are result in the overall largest sensitivity in near-surface ozone. We also show that in the lower troposphere, global VOC emissions account for 40% of the ozone sensitivity to VOC emissions in the region, whereas, for NOx the ozone sensitivity to local sources is 9 times greater than that for global emissions at these altitudes. However, in the mid and upper troposphere ozone is most sensitive to non-local emission sources. In terms of radiative effects on regional climate, ozone contributions from non-local emission sources are more important, as these have a larger impact on ozone in the upper troposphere where its radiative effects are larger, with Asian monsoon outflow having the greatest impact. Our results allow improved understanding of the large-scale processes controlling air quality and climate in the region of the Mediterranean basin.
Using a global atmospheric chemistry model, we have quantified for the first time, intercontinental transboundary contributions to crop ozone exposure and subsequent yield reductions in the Northern ...Hemisphere. We apply four metrics (AOT40, M7, M12, W126) to assess the impacts of 100% reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions from North (N) America, South East (SE) Asia and Europe on global and regional exposure of 6 major agricultural crop types to surface ozone, and resultant crop production losses during the year 2000 growing season. Using these metrics, model calculations show that for wheat, rice, cotton and potato, 100 % reductions in SE Asian anthropogenic NOx emissions tend to produce the greatest global reduction in crop production losses (42.3–95.2%), and a 100 % reduction to N~American anthropogenic NOx emissions results in the greatest global impact on crop production losses for maize and soybean (59.2–85.9%). A 100% reduction in N~American anthropogenic NOx emissions produces the largest transboundary impact, resulting in European production loss reductions of between 14.2% and 63.2%. European NOx emissions tend to produce a smaller transboundary impact, due to inefficiency of transport from the European domain. The threshold nature of the AOT40 ozone-exposure metric results in strong dependence of non-local emissions impacts on the local ozone concentration distribution. Our calculations of absolute crop production change under emission reduction scenarios differ between the metrics used, however we find the relative importance of each region's transboundary impact remains robust between metrics. Our results demonstrate that local air quality and emission control strategies have the potential to partly alleviate ozone-induced crop yield loss in continents downstream, in addition to effectively mitigating local ozone-induced production losses.
Numerical models are essential tools for understanding the complex and dynamic nature of the natural environment. The ability to evaluate how well these models represent reality is critical in their ...use and future development. This study presents a combination of changepoint analysis and fuzzy logic to assess the ability of numerical models to capture local scale temporal events seen in observations. The fuzzy union based metric factors in uncertainty of the changepoint location to calculate individual similarity scores between the numerical model and reality for each changepoint in the observed record. The application of the method is demonstrated through a case study on a high resolution model dataset which was able to pick up observed changepoints in temperature records over Greenland to varying degrees of success. The case study is presented using the DataLabs framework, a cloud-based collaborative platform which simplifies access to complex statistical methods for environmental science applications.
•New fuzzy changepoint based evaluation method focussed on local scale temporal events.•The method factors in uncertainty of changepoint locations in evaluation of timing.•Provides framework to evaluate numerical model ability to capture fine scale events.
We developed a parsimonious topography-based hydrologic model coupled with a soil biogeochemistry sub-model in order to improve understanding and prediction of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) ...transfer in agricultural headwater catchments. The model structure aims to capture the dominant hydrological and biogeochemical processes identified from multiscale observations in a research catchment (Kervidy–Naizin, 5 km2). Groundwater fluctuations, responsible for the connection of soil SRP production zones to the stream, were simulated with a fully distributed hydrologic model at 20 m resolution. The spatial variability of the soil phosphorus content and the temporal variability of soil moisture and temperature, which had previously been identified as key controlling factors of SRP solubilization in soils, were included as part of an empirical soil biogeochemistry sub-model. The modelling approach included an analysis of the information contained in the calibration data and propagation of uncertainty in model predictions using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) "limits of acceptability" framework. Overall, the model appeared to perform well given the uncertainty in the observational data, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency on daily SRP loads between 0.1 and 0.8 for acceptable models. The role of hydrological connectivity via groundwater fluctuation and the role of increased SRP solubilization following dry/hot periods were captured well. We conclude that in the absence of near-continuous monitoring, the amount of information contained in the data is limited; hence, parsimonious models are more relevant than highly parameterized models. An analysis of uncertainty in the data is recommended for model calibration in order to provide reliable predictions.
Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution is known to damage vegetation, reducing photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, resulting in modified plant transpiration to the atmosphere. We use an Earth system ...model to show that global transpiration response to near‐present‐day surface tropospheric ozone results in large‐scale global perturbations to net outgoing long‐wave and incoming shortwave radiation. Our results suggest that the radiative effect is dominated by a reduction in shortwave cloud forcing in polluted regions, in response to ozone‐induced reduction in land‐atmosphere moisture flux and atmospheric humidity. We simulate a statistically significant response of annual surface air temperature of up to ~ +1.5 K due to this ozone effect in vegetated regions subjected to ozone pollution. This mechanism is expected to further increase the net warming resulting from historic and future increases in tropospheric ozone.
Plain Language Summary
Ozone is a pollutant near the Earth's surface, where it is harmful to health and vegetation. Ozone is formed by chemical reactions in the atmosphere driven by the action of sunlight on emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sources. Ozone harms vegetation by entering leaves through small pores on leaves called stomata. These stomata are also the route by which gases such as water vapor and CO2 are naturally exchanged between plants and the atmosphere. Ozone damage to vegetation affects the efficiency with which gases pass through plant stomata, typically reducing both photosynthesis and stomatal conductance due to biochemical damage. This results in a change in the amount of water vapor that plants put into the atmosphere. In this study we use a computer model to estimate for the first time how this modification in plant water vapor source to the atmosphere changes climate. We show widespread surface warming and changes in clouds due to the impact of ozone on plants. This has important implications for policies aimed at limiting global and regional temperature increases in the presence of ozone pollution and provides evidence for an additional climate benefit to reducing ozone pollution.
Key Points
We make the first estimate of global radiation balance and surface temperature response to vegetation damage by ozone
Radiative changes are dominated by atmospheric moisture and cloud response to ozone‐induced changes in plant transpiration
Ozone‐vegetation‐hydrology interactions should be considered in future climate scenarios and simulations
Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will ...result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying–rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.
Core Ideas
UK Climate Projections predict long dry hot periods followed by intense rainfall.
Frequency of longer dry periods increase under climate change.
Critical breakpoints of 7–15 dry days have been identified that solubilize more P from soil.
Increased dry period frequency will result in an overall increase in SRP concentration solubilized.
We use an Earth System model (HadGEM2‐ES) to investigate the sensitivity of midnineteenth century tropospheric ozone to vegetation distribution and atmospheric chemistry‐vegetation interaction ...processes. We conduct model experiments to isolate the response of midnineteenth century tropospheric ozone to vegetation cover changes between the 1860s and present day and to CO2‐induced changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition over the same period. Changes in vegetation distribution and CO2 suppression of isoprene emissions between midnineteenth century and present day lead to decreases in global isoprene emissions of 19% and 21%, respectively. This results in increases in surface ozone over the continents of up to 2 ppbv and of 2–6 ppbv in the tropical upper troposphere. The effects of CO2 increases on suppression of isoprene emissions and suppression of dry deposition to vegetation are small compared with the effects of vegetation cover change. Accounting for present‐day climate in addition to present‐day vegetation cover and atmospheric CO2 concentrations leads to increases in surface ozone concentrations of up to 5 ppbv over the entire northern hemisphere (NH) and of up to 8 ppbv in the NH free troposphere, compared with a midnineteenth century control simulation. Ozone changes are dominated by the following: (1) the role of isoprene as an ozone sink in the low NOx midnineteenth century atmosphere and (2) the redistribution of NOx to remote regions and the free troposphere via PAN (peroxyacetyl nitrate) formed from isoprene oxidation. We estimate a tropospheric ozone radiative forcing of 0.264 W m−2 and a sensitivity in ozone radiative forcing to midnineteenth century to present‐day vegetation cover change of −0.012 W m−2.
Key Points
Simulated midnineteenth century ozone distribution is sensitive to assumed model vegetation distribution
Impact of midnineteenth century to present day vegetation change on tropospheric ozone dominated by change in isoprene emissions
Ozone radiative forcing is sensitive to assumption regarding midnineteenth century vegetation distribution
This paper documents the tropospheric chemical mechanism scheme used in the TOMCAT 3-D chemical transport model. The current scheme includes a more detailed representation of hydrocarbon chemistry ...than previously included in the model, with the inclusion of the emission and oxidation of ethene, propene, butane, toluene and monoterpenes. The model is evaluated against a range of surface, balloon, aircraft and satellite measurements. The model is generally able to capture the main spatial and seasonal features of high and low concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and reactive nitrogen. However, model biases are found in some species, some of which are common to chemistry models and some that are specific to TOMCAT and warrant further investigation. The most notable of these biases are (1) a negative bias in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter and spring CO and a positive bias in Southern Hemisphere (SH) CO throughout the year, (2) a positive bias in NH O3 in summer and a negative bias at high latitudes during SH winter and (3) a negative bias in NH winter C2 and C3 alkanes and alkenes. TOMCAT global mean tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations are higher than estimates inferred from observations of methyl chloroform but similar to, or lower than, multi-model mean concentrations reported in recent model intercomparison studies. TOMCAT shows peak OH concentrations in the tropical lower troposphere, unlike other models which show peak concentrations in the tropical upper troposphere. This is likely to affect the lifetime and transport of important trace gases and warrants further investigation.
PDF
