The value of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is defined by the balance of benefits, i.e., early tumor detection, and potential harms, related to false positive and indeterminate results. ...Although physical harms can be observed in 15%-20% of patients with cirrhosis undergoing HCC surveillance, previous cost-effectiveness analyses have not incorporated costs of harms. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HCC surveillance including both benefits and harms.
We constructed a Markov model to compare surveillance strategies of ultrasound (US) alone, US and alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and no surveillance in 1 million simulated patients with compensated cirrhosis. Harms included imaging and biopsy in patients undergoing surveillance for HCC. Model inputs were based on literature review, and costs were derived from the Medicare fee schedule, with all costs inflated to 2018 dollars. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per incremental quality-adjusted life-year.
In the base case analysis, US with AFP was the dominant strategy over both US alone and no surveillance. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, US with AFP was the most cost-effective strategy in 80.1% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. In our threshold analyses, an HCC incidence >0.4% per year and surveillance adherence >19.5% biannually were necessary for US with AFP to be cost-effective compared with no surveillance.
Accounting for both surveillance-related benefits and harms, US and AFP is more cost-effective for HCC surveillance than US alone or no surveillance in patients with compensated cirrhosis.
University students are at significantly higher risk of serogroup B meningococcal (MenB) infection, which can result in debilitating sequelae and excessive healthcare usage. This study aimed to ...elucidate the impact of universal pre-enrollment vaccination on MenB outbreak probability and the cost-effectiveness in outbreak-only scenarios.
We developed an infectious disease transmission model to determine the number of outbreaks averted under universal vaccination and a Markov model to simulate the costs accrued and QALYs lost associated with infection. The analysis was done on a hypothetical population of 40,000 college students over a four-year time frame. We used the outputs of these two models to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of universal MenB vaccination from a societal perspective.
We find that the vaccination strategy was estimated to reduce MenB incidence by 63% and outbreak frequency rate by 90%. Under base case assumptions, the ICER of universal vaccination was $748,129 per QALY and in outbreak-only scenarios, it was cost-saving.
Universal vaccination is not cost-effective at the current low MenB incidence levels and vaccine price in the U.S., but it is cost-saving if outbreak is imminent.
Epilepsy is a common, serious condition. Fortunately, seizure risk decreases with increasing seizure-free time on antiseizure medications (ASMs). Eventually, patients may consider whether to stop ...ASMs, which requires weighing treatment benefit versus burden. We developed a questionnaire to quantify patient preferences relevant to ASM decision-making. Respondents rated how concerning they would finding relevant items (e.g., seizure risks, side effects, cost) on a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS, 0-100) and then repeatedly chose the most and least concerning item from subsets (best-worst scaling, BWS). We pretested with neurologists, then recruited adults with epilepsy who were seizure-free at least one year. Primary outcomes were recruitment rate, and qualitative and Likert-based feedback. Secondary outcomes included VAS ratings and best-minus-worst scores. Thirty-one of 60 (52%) contacted patients completed the study. Most patients felt VAS questions were clear (28; 90%), easy to use (27; 87%), and assessed preferences well (25; 83%). Corresponding results for BWS questions were 27 (87%), 29 (97%), and 23 (77%). Physicians suggested adding a 'warmup' question showing a completed example and simplifying terminology. Patients suggested ways to clarify instructions. Cost, inconvenience of taking medication, and laboratory monitoring were the least concerning items. Cognitive side effects and a 50% seizure risk in the next year were the most concerning items. Twelve (39%) of patients made at least one 'inconsistent choice' for example ranking a higher seizure risk as lower concern compared with a lower seizure risk, though 'inconsistent choices' represented only 3% of all question blocks. Our recruitment rate was favorable, most patients agreed the survey was clear, and we describe areas for improvement. 'Inconsistent' responses may lead us to collapse seizure probability items into a single 'seizure' category. Evidence regarding how patients weigh benefits and harms may inform care and guideline development.
IMPORTANCE: Anti–vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) medicines have revolutionized diabetic macular edema (DME) treatment. A recent randomized clinical trial comparing anti-VEGF agents for ...patients with decreased vision from DME found that at 1 year aflibercept (2.0 mg) achieved better visual outcomes than repackaged (compounded) bevacizumab (1.25 mg) or ranibizumab (0.3 mg); the worse the starting vision, the greater the treatment benefit with aflibercept. However, aflibercept and ranibizumab, respectively, are approximately 31 and 20 times more expensive than bevacizumab. OBJECTIVE: To examine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of aflibercept, bevacizumab, and ranibizumab for the treatment of DME. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Post hoc analysis of efficacy, safety, and resource utilization data at 1-year follow-up from the Diabetic Retinopathy Clinical Research Network Comparative Effectiveness Trial. Patients were enrolled from August 22, 2012, through August 28, 2013, and analysis was performed from August 21, 2014, through November 7, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The ICERs for all trial participants and subgroups with baseline vision of approximate Snellen equivalent 20/32 to 20/40 (better vision) and baseline vision of approximate Snellen equivalent 20/50 or worse (worse vision). One-year trial data were used to calculate cost-effectiveness for 1 year for the 3 anti-VEGF agents; mathematical modeling was then used to project 10-year cost-effectiveness results. RESULTS: The study included 624 participants (mean SD age, 60.6 10.5 years; 45.7% female; 65.5% white), 209 in the aflibercept group, 207 in the bevacizumab group, and 208 in the ranibizumab group. For all participants, during 1 year, the ICERs of aflibercept and ranibizumab compared with bevacizumab were $1 110 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and $1 730 000 per QALY, respectively. During 10 years, they were $349 000 per QALY and $603 000 per QALY, respectively. Compared with ranibizumab, aflibercept’s ICER was $648 000 per QALY at 1 year and $203 000 per QALY at 10 years. For the subgroup with worse baseline vision, the 10-year ICERs of aflibercept and ranibizumab compared with bevacizumab were $287 000 per QALY and $817 000 per QALY, respectively. In eyes with decreased vision from DME, treatment costs of aflibercept and ranibizumab would need to decrease by 69% and 80%, respectively, to reach a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 000 per QALY compared with bevacizumab during a 10-year horizon; for the subgroup with worse baseline vision, the costs would need to decrease by 62% and 84%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Aflibercept (2.0 mg) and ranibizumab (0.3 mg) are not cost-effective relative to bevacizumab for treatment of DME unless their prices decrease substantially. These results highlight the challenges that physicians, patients, and policymakers face when safety and efficacy results are at odds with cost-effectiveness results.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine have concluded that eliminating the public health problem of chronic hepatitis B is feasible. We examined the economic and public health ...impact of reaching the World Health Organization targets of having 90 percent of chronic hepatitis B cases diagnosed and 80 percent being treated by 2030 in the United States with an annual incremental increase in screening and treatment rates. To reach the targets by 2030 would require screening approximately 14.5 million adults in at-risk populations to diagnose an estimated 870,000 undiagnosed cases and would result in substantial health gains: an increase of 16.5 million quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and reductions in liver-related deaths of 37 percent and in cases of compensated cirrhosis of 24 percent, decompensated liver cirrhosis of 51 percent, and liver cancer of 35 percent. Achieving the targets by 2030 would be highly cost-effective at $103 per QALY and would be cost-saving if the antiviral drug price were no more than $114 per month. Achieving them by 2025 would be cost-saving and would reduce liver-related deaths by 47 percent.
Chronic liver disease and liver cancer associated with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are leading causes of death among adults in China. Although newborn hepatitis B immunization has successfully reduced ...the prevalence of CHB in children, about 100 million Chinese adults remain chronically infected. If left unmanaged, 15-25% will die from liver cancer or liver cirrhosis. Antiviral treatment is not necessary for all patients with CHB, but when it is indicated, good response to treatment would prevent disease progression and reduce disease mortality and morbidity, and costly complications. The aim of this study is to analyze the cost-effectiveness of generic and brand antiviral drugs for CHB treatment in China, and assessing various thresholds at which a highly potent, low resistance antiviral drug would be cost-saving and/or cost-effective to introduce in a national treatment program. We developed a Markov simulation model of disease progression using effectiveness and cost data from the medical literature. We measured life-time costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and clinical outcomes. The no treatment strategy incurred the highest health care costs ($12,932-$25,293) per patient, and the worst health outcomes, compared to the antiviral treatment strategies. Monotherapy with either entecavir or tenofovir yielded the most QALYs (14.10-19.02) for both HBeAg-positive and negative patients, with or without cirrhosis. Threshold analysis showed entercavir or tenofovir treatment would be cost saving if the drug price is $32-75 (195-460 RMB) per month, highly cost-effective at $62-110 (379-670 RMB) per month and cost-effective at $63-120 (384-734 RMB) per month. This study can support policy decisions regarding the implementation of a national health program for chronic hepatitis B treatment in China at the population level.
Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major burden on individuals and health care systems. The Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes (Project ECHO) enables primary care providers to ...deliver best-practice care for complex conditions to underserved populations. The US Congress passed the ECHO Act in late 2016, requiring the Department of Health and Human Services to investigate the model. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to assess diagnosis and treatment of HCV infection in a primary care patient panel with and without the implementation of Project ECHO.
We used Markov models to simulate disease progression, quality of life, and life expectancy among individuals with HCV infection and for the general population. Data from the University of New Mexico's ECHO operation for HCV show an increase in treatment rates. Corresponding increases in survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and resulting budget impact between ECHO and non-ECHO patients with HCV were then compared.
Project ECHO increased costs and QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECHO was $10,351 per QALY compared with the status quo; >99.9% of iterations fell below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. We were unable to confirm whether the increase in rates of treatment associated with Project ECHO were due to increased or more targeted screening, higher adherence, or access to treatment. Our sensitivity analyses show that the results are largely independent of the cause. Budget impact analysis shows payers would have to invest an additional $339.54 million over a 5-year period to increase treatment by 4446 patients, per 1 million covered lives.
Using a simulated primary care patient panel, we showed that Project ECHO is a cost-effective way to find and treat patients with HCV infection at scale using existing primary care providers. This approach could substantially reduce the burden of chronic HCV infection in the United States, but high budgetary costs suggest that incremental rollout of ECHO may be best.
Abstract Objectives Fidaxomicin is a novel treatment for Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs). This new treatment, however, is associated with a higher acquisition cost compared with alternatives. ...The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fidaxomicin or oral vancomycin for the treatment of CDIs. Methods We performed a cost-utility analysis comparing fidaxomicin with oral vancomycin for the treatment of CDIs in the United States by creating a decision analytic model from the third-party payer perspective. Results The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with fidaxomicin compared with oral vancomycin was $67,576/quality-adjusted life-year. A probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showed that fidaxomicin had an 80.2% chance of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year. Fidaxomicin remained cost-effective under all fluctuations of both fidaxomicin and oral vancomycin costs. The decision analytic model was sensitive to variations in clinical cure and recurrence rates. Secondary analyses revealed that fidaxomicin was cost-effective in patients receiving concominant antimicrobials, in patients with mild to moderate CDIs, and when compared with oral metronidazole in patients with mild to moderate disease. Fidaxomicin was dominated by oral vancomycin if CDI was caused by the NAP1/Bl/027 Clostridium difficile strain and was dominant in institutions that did not compound oral vancomycin. Conclusion Results of our model showed that fidaxomicin may be a more cost-effective option for the treatment of CDIs when compared with oral vancomycin under most scenarios tested.
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