The impacts of climate change on soil erosion are mainly caused by the changes in the amount and intensity of rainfall and rising temperature. The combination of rainfall and temperature change is ...likely to be accompanied by negative or positive variations in agricultural and forest management. Turkey contains vast fertile plains, high mountain chains and semi-arid lands, with a climate that ranges from marine to continental and therefore is susceptible to soil erosion under climate change, particularly on high gradients and in semi-arid areas. This study aims to model the soil erosion risk under climate change scenarios in Turkey using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Assessment (PESERA) model, predicting the likely effects of land use/cover and climate change on sediment transport and soil erosion in the country. For this purpose, PESERA was applied to estimate the monthly and annual soil loss for 12 land use/cover types in Turkey. The model inputs included 128 variables derived from soil, climate, land use/cover and topography data. The total soil loss from the land surface is speculated to be approximately 285.5 million tonnes per year. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report of four climate change scenarios, the total soil losses were predicted as 308.9, 323.5, 320.3 and 355.3 million tonnes for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively from 2060 to 2080. The predicted amounts of fertile soil loss from agricultural land in a year were predicted to be 55.5 million tonnes at present, and 62.7, 59.9, 61.7 and 58.1 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 respectively. This confirms that approximately 30% of the total erosion occurs over the agricultural lands. In this respect, degraded forests, scrub and arable lands were subjected to the highest erosion rate (68%) of the total, whereas, fruit trees and berry plantations reflected the lowest erosion rates. Low soil organic carbon, sparse vegetation cover and variable climatic conditions significantly enhanced the erosion of the cultivated lands by primarily removing the potential food for organisms. Finally, process-based models offer a valuable resource for decision-makers when improving environmental management schemes and also decrease uncertainty when considering risks.
Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology offers children with quadriplegic cerebral palsy unique opportunities for communication, environmental exploration, learning, and game play. Research in ...adults demonstrates a negative impact of fatigue on BCI enjoyment, while effects on BCI performance are variable. To date, there have been no pediatric studies of BCI fatigue. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of two different BCI paradigms, motor imagery and visual P300, on the development of self-reported fatigue and an electroencephalography (EEG) biomarker of fatigue in typically developing children.
Thirty-seven typically-developing school-aged children were recruited to a prospective, crossover study. Participants attended three sessions: (A) motor imagery-BCI, (B) visual P300-BCI, and (C) video viewing (control). The motor imagery task involved an imagined left- or right-hand squeeze. The P300 task involved attending to one square on a 3 × 3 grid during a random single flash sequence. Each paradigm had respective calibration periods and a similar visual counting game. Primary outcomes were self-reported fatigue and the power of the EEG alpha band both collected during resting-state periods pre- and post-task. Self-reported fatigue was measured using a 10-point visual analog scale. EEG alpha band power was calculated as the integrated power spectral density from 8 to 12 Hz of the EEG spectrum.
Thirty-two children completed the protocol (age range 7-16, 63% female). Self-reported fatigue and EEG alpha band power increased across all sessions (F
= 33.9, p < 0.001; F = 5.0
, p = 0.027 respectively). No differences in fatigue development were observed between session types. There was no correlation between self-reported fatigue and EEG alpha band power change. BCI performance varied between participants and paradigms as expected but was not associated with self-reported fatigue or EEG alpha band power.
Short periods (30-mintues) of BCI use can increase self-reported fatigue and EEG alpha band power to a similar degree in children performing motor imagery and P300 BCI paradigms. Performance was not associated with our measures of fatigue; the impact of fatigue on useability and enjoyment is unclear. Our results reflect the variability of fatigue and the BCI experience more broadly in children and warrant further investigation.
This paper shows how, with the aid of computer models developed in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to quantify and map how policy decisions are likely ...to affect multiple ecosystem services in future. In this way, potential trade-offs and complementarities between different ecosystem services can be identified, so that policies can be designed to avoid the worst trade-offs, and where possible, enhance multiple services. The paper brings together evidence from across the Rural Economy and Land Use Programme’s Sustainable Uplands project for the first time, with previously unpublished model outputs relating to runoff, agricultural suitability, biomass, heather cover, age, and utility for Red Grouse (Lagopus scotica), grass cover, and accompanying scenario narratives and video. Two contrasting scenarios, based on policies to extensify or intensify land management up to 2030, were developed through a combination of interviews and discussions during site visits with stakeholders, literature review, conceptual modeling, and process-based computer models, using the Dark Peak of the Peak District National Park in the UK as a case study. Where extensification leads to a significant reduction in managed burning and grazing or land abandonment, changes in vegetation type and structure could compromise a range of species that are important for conservation, while compromising provisioning services, amenity value, and increasing wildfire risk. However, where extensification leads to the restoration of peatlands damaged by former intensive management, there would be an increase in carbon sequestration and storage, with a number of cobenefits, which could counter the loss of habitats and species elsewhere in the landscape. In the second scenario, land use and management was significantly intensified to boost UK self-sufficiency in food. This would benefit certain provisioning services but would have negative consequences for carbon storage and water quality and would lead to a reduction in the abundance of certain species of conservation concern. The paper emphasizes the need for spatially explicit models that can track how ecosystem services might change over time, in response to policy or environmental drivers, and in response to the changing demands and preferences of society, which are far harder to anticipate. By developing such models in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to depict scenarios of real concern to those who need to use the research findings. By engaging these collaborators with the research findings through film, it was possible to discuss adaptive options to minimize trade-offs and enhance the provision of multiple ecosystem services under the very different future conditions depicted by each scenario. By preparing for as wide a range of futures as possible in this way, it may be possible for decision makers to act rapidly and effectively to protect and enhance the provision of ecosystem services in the face of unpredictable future change.
Severe watershed degradation continues to occur in the tropical regions of southern Africa. This has raised interest to harness and manipulate the potential of the watershed resources for human ...benefit as the populations grow. Songwe River is one such degrading watershed causing biennial flooding among other problems. In this study, climatic, land use, topographic and physiographic properties were assembled for this watershed and used in a process-based Geographical Information System (GIS) with the aim of determining the hydrological sediment potential of Songwe River watershed and quantifying possibilities of reservoir sedimentation. The study further aimed at determining the critical sediment generating areas for prioritized conservation management and the relationship between the increasing flood events in the floodplains and the rainfall trends. Based on hydrological runoff processes using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model, the estimated amount of sediment transported downstream is potentially huge. Most of the sediment generation was established to be occurring in the upper sub-basin and specifically from built up village and degraded natural land. These trends have not only caused the increased flooding events in the lower sub-basin, but also pose a great sustainability risk of sedimentation to the proposed reservoir.
A recently developed fluvial erosion model for blanket peatlands, PESERA-PEAT, was applied at ten sites across Great Britain to predict the response of blanket peat erosion to environmental change. ...Climate change to 2099 was derived from seven UKCP09 future projections and the UK Met Office’s historical dataset. Land management scenarios were established based on outputs from earlier published investigations. Modelling results suggested that as climate changes, the response of blanket peat erosion will be spatially very variable across Great Britain. Both relative changes and absolute values of sediment yield were predicted to be higher in southern and eastern areas than in western and northern parts of Great Britain, peaking in the North York Moors of eastern England. Areas with high precipitation and low temperature were predicted to have low relative erosion changes and absolute sediment yield. The model suggested that summer desiccation may become more important for blanket peat erosion under future climate change, and that temperature was more dominant than precipitation in controlling long-term blanket peat erosion change. However, in the North York Moors, precipitation appeared to be more dominant in driving long-term erosion change. Land management measures were shown to provide a means to mitigate against the impacts of climate change on blanket peat erosion.
The Loess Plateau suffers from severe soil erosion that leads to a series of ecological and economic problems such as reduced land productivity, exacerbated rural poverty, decreased biodiversity and ...sedimentation of the riverbed in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. Soil erosion models are commonly used on the Loess Plateau to help target sustainable land management strategies to control soil erosion. In this study, we compared eleven soil erosion models that were previously used on the Loess Plateau. We studied their prediction accuracy, process representation, data and calibration requirements, and potential application in scenario studies. The selected models consisted of a broad range of model types, structures and scales. The comparison showed that process-based and empirical models did not necessarily yield more accurate results over one another for the Loess Plateau. Among the process-based models, Si’ model, WEPP and MMF had the highest prediction accuracy. However, some of the selected models were tested with total sediment load while others were tested with suspended sediment load (i.e. bedload is not included), which is subject to several drawbacks. Research questions that each of the models can address on the Loess Plateau were suggested. Further improvement of soil erosion models for the Loess Plateau should concentrate on enhancing the quality of data for model implementation and testing, incorporating key processes into process-based models according to their aims and scales, comparing models that address the same research questions, and implementing internal and spatial model testing.
Abstract
Peatlands are important terrestrial carbon stores particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Many peatlands, such as those in the British Isles, Sweden, and Canada, have undergone increased ...erosion, resulting in degraded water quality and depleted soil carbon stocks. It is unclear how climate change may impact future peat erosion. Here we use a physically based erosion model (Pan‐European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment‐PEAT), driven by seven different global climate models (GCMs), to predict fluvial blanket peat erosion in the Northern Hemisphere under 21st‐century climate change. After an initial decline, total hemispheric blanket peat erosion rates are found to increase during 2070–2099 (2080s) compared with the baseline period (1961–1990) for most of the GCMs. Regional erosion variability is high with changes to baseline ranging between −1.27 and +21.63 t ha
−1
yr
−1
in the 2080s. These responses are driven by effects of temperature (generally more dominant) and precipitation change on weathering processes. Low‐latitude and warm blanket peatlands are at most risk to fluvial erosion under 21st‐century climate change.
Key Points
A fluvial blanket peat erosion model was driven by seven GCMs to predict future erosion of Northern Hemisphere blanket peatlands
Total hemispheric blanket peat erosion rates are likely to increase during 2070–2099 compared with 1961–1990
Low‐latitude and warm blanket peatlands are at most erosion risk from climate change
Many peatlands across the world suffer from degradation. Blanket peatlands are found mainly in high latitude oceanic areas and subpolar islands. Exacerbated erosion of blanket peatlands is common ...particularly where they have been disturbed by human influence or where climate has become more marginal for their functioning. A recently developed fluvial blanket peat erosion model, PESERA-PEAT was applied across 845km2 of blanket peatlands in the North Pennines of northern England. The aim was to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of erosion rates under climate change and land management scenarios. Climate change data to the end of the 21st Century, derived from UKCP09 median emission projections aligned to the UK Met Office's historical meteorological dataset, were downscaled to 100m cells. Land management scenarios were developed which included intensified and extensified grazing, artificial drainage and prescribed burning. The modelling results showed that under current management, 21st Century climate change would slightly increase the overall fluvial erosion rates for the study region from the climatic baseline (2.2tha−1yr−1) to the 2080s (2.3tha−1yr−1). However, the predicted response to climate change was spatially very variable. Predicted erosion rates decreased at locations that are currently wet and cold while they increased in some warmer and drier locations by >50%. Summer desiccation was found to become more important for the study region under climate change. Thus, predicted autumn sediment yields became the biggest component of the annual budget by the 2080s. Less intensive management was shown to reduce blanket peat erosion but potentially enhance wildfire severity. The results demonstrated that land management change will be useful in mitigating the impact of 21st Century climate change on the amount and spatial pattern of blanket peat erosion. The results of our study can be used within blanket peatland regions to inform spatially-targeted management strategies.
•Many blanket peatlands are eroded due to management and climate change.•PESERA-PEAT was applied to a blanket peatland region with environmental scenarios.•Modelling suggested climate change would slightly increase blanket peat erosion.•Summer desiccation may play a role in future peat erosion in the North Pennines.•Less intensive management may mitigate climate impact but enhance wildfire risk.
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