The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.0) calculates biomass burning emissions by assimilating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) observations from the MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua ...satellites. It corrects for gaps in the observations, which are mostly due to cloud cover, and filters spurious FRP observations of volcanoes, gas flares and other industrial activity. The combustion rate is subsequently calculated with land cover-specific conversion factors. Emission factors for 40 gas-phase and aerosol trace species have been compiled from a literature survey. The corresponding daily emissions have been calculated on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid from 2003 to the present. General consistency with the Global Fire Emission Database version 3.1 (GFED3.1) within its accuracy is achieved while maintaining the advantages of an FRP-based approach: GFASv1.0 makes use of the quantitative information on the combustion rate that is contained in the FRP observations, and it detects fires in real time at high spatial and temporal resolution. GFASv1.0 indicates omission errors in GFED3.1 due to undetected small fires. It also exhibits slightly longer fire seasons in South America and North Africa and a slightly shorter fire season in Southeast Asia. GFASv1.0 has already been used for atmospheric reactive gas simulations in an independent study, which found good agreement with atmospheric observations. We have performed simulations of the atmospheric aerosol distribution with and without the assimilation of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD). They indicate that the emissions of particulate matter need to be boosted by a factor of 2–4 to reproduce the global distribution of organic matter and black carbon. This discrepancy is also evident in the comparison of previously published top-down and bottom-up estimates. For the time being, a global enhancement of the particulate matter emissions by 3.4 is recommended. Validation with independent AOD and PM10 observations recorded during the Russian fires in summer 2010 show that the global Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Change (MACC) aerosol model with GFASv1.0 aerosol emissions captures the smoke plume evolution well when organic matter and black carbon are enhanced by the recommended factor. In conjunction with the assimilation of MODIS AOD, the use of GFASv1.0 with enhanced emission factors quantitatively improves the forecast of the aerosol load near the surface sufficiently to allow air quality warnings with a lead time of up to four days.
This paper presents the aerosol modeling now part of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It includes new prognostic variables for the mass of sea salt, dust, organic matter and black ...carbon, and sulphate aerosols, interactive with both the dynamics and the physics of the model. It details the various parameterizations used in the IFS to account for the presence of tropospheric aerosols. Details are given of the various formulations and data sets for the sources of the different aerosols and of the parameterizations describing their sinks. Comparisons of monthly mean and daily aerosol quantities like optical depths against satellite and surface observations are presented. The capability of the forecast model to simulate aerosol events is illustrated through comparisons of dust plume events. The ECMWF IFS provides a good description of the horizontal distribution and temporal variability of the main aerosol types. The forecast‐only model described here generally gives the total aerosol optical depth within 0.12 of the relevant observations and can therefore provide the background trajectory information for the aerosol assimilation system described in part 2 of this paper.
A new fast clear-sky model called McClear was developed to estimate the downwelling shortwave direct and global irradiances received at ground level under clear skies. It is a fully physical model ...replacing empirical relations or simpler models used before. It exploits the recent results on aerosol properties, and total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC project (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate). It accurately reproduces the irradiance computed by the libRadtran reference radiative transfer model with a computational speed approximately 105 times greater by adopting the abaci, or look-up table, approach combined with interpolation functions. It is therefore suited for geostationary satellite retrievals or numerical weather prediction schemes with many pixels or grid points, respectively. McClear irradiances were compared to 1 min measurements made in clear-sky conditions at several stations within the Baseline Surface Radiation Network in various climates. The bias for global irradiance comprises between −6 and 25 W m−2. The RMSE ranges from 20 W m−2 (3% of the mean observed irradiance) to 36 W m−2 (5%) and the correlation coefficient ranges between 0.95 and 0.99. The bias for the direct irradiance comprises between −48 and +33 W m−2. The root mean square error (RMSE) ranges from 33 W m−2 (5%) to 64 W m−2 (10%). The correlation coefficient ranges between 0.84 and 0.98. This work demonstrates the quality of the McClear model combined with MACC products, and indirectly the quality of the aerosol properties modelled by the MACC reanalysis.
In September and October 2015 widespread forest and peatland fires burned over large parts of maritime southeast Asia, most notably Indonesia, releasing large amounts of terrestrially-stored carbon ...into the atmosphere, primarily in the form of CO2, CO and CH4. With a mean emission rate of 11.3 Tg CO2 per day during Sept-Oct 2015, emissions from these fires exceeded the fossil fuel CO2 release rate of the European Union (EU28) (8.9 Tg CO2 per day). Although seasonal fires are a frequent occurrence in the human modified landscapes found in Indonesia, the extent of the 2015 fires was greatly inflated by an extended drought period associated with a strong El Niño. We estimate carbon emissions from the 2015 fires to be the largest seen in maritime southeast Asia since those associated with the record breaking El Niño of 1997. Compared to that event, a much better constrained regional total carbon emission estimate can be made for the 2015 fires through the use of present-day satellite observations of the fire's radiative power output and atmospheric CO concentrations, processed using the modelling and assimilation framework of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and combined with unique in situ smoke measurements made on Kalimantan.
New-generation drug-eluting stents (DES) have mostly been investigated in head-to-head non-inferiority trials against early-generation DES and have typically shown similar efficacy and superior ...safety. How the safety profile of new-generation DES compares with that of bare-metal stents (BMS) is less clear.
We did an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials to compare outcomes after implantation of new-generation DES or BMS among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. The primary outcome was the composite of cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Data were pooled in a one-stage random-effects meta-analysis and examined at maximum follow-up and a 1-year landmark. Risk estimates are reported as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. This study is registered in PROSPERO, number CRD42017060520.
We obtained individual data for 26 616 patients in 20 randomised trials. Mean follow-up was 3·2 (SD 1·8) years. The risk of the primary outcome was reduced in DES recipients compared with BMS recipients (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·78–0·90, p<0·001) owing to a reduced risk of myocardial infarction (0·79, 0·71–0·88, p<0·001) and a possible slight but non-significant cardiac mortality benefit (0·89, 0·78–1·01, p=0·075). All-cause death was unaffected (HR with DES 0·96, 95% CI 0·88–1·05, p=0·358), but risk was lowered for definite stent thrombosis (0·63, 0·50–0·80, p<0·001) and target-vessel revascularisation (0·55, 0·50–0·60, p<0·001). We saw a time-dependent treatment effect, with DES being associated with lower risk of the primary outcome than BMS up to 1 year after placement. While the effect was maintained in the longer term, there was no further divergence from BMS after 1 year.
The performance of new-generation DES in the first year after implantation means that BMS should no longer be considered the gold standard for safety. Further development of DES technology should target improvements in clinical outcomes beyond 1 year.
Bern University Hospital.
An eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003–2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by ...assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system. This reanalysis provides fields of chemically reactive gases, namely carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, as well as aerosols and greenhouse gases globally at a horizontal resolution of about 80 km for both the troposphere and the stratosphere. This paper describes the assimilation system for the reactive gases and presents validation results for the reactive gas analysis fields to document the data set and to give a first indication of its quality. Tropospheric CO values from the MACC reanalysis are on average 10–20% lower than routine observations from commercial aircrafts over airports through most of the troposphere, and have larger negative biases in the boundary layer at urban sites affected by air pollution, possibly due to an underestimation of CO or precursor emissions. Stratospheric ozone fields from the MACC reanalysis agree with ozonesondes and ACE-FTS data to within ±10% in most seasons and regions. In the troposphere the reanalysis shows biases of −5% to +10% with respect to ozonesondes and aircraft data in the extratropics, but has larger negative biases in the tropics. Area-averaged total column ozone agrees with ozone fields from a multi-sensor reanalysis data set to within a few percent. NO2 fields from the reanalysis show the right seasonality over polluted urban areas of the NH and over tropical biomass burning areas, but underestimate wintertime NO2 maxima over anthropogenic pollution regions and overestimate NO2 in northern and southern Africa during the tropical biomass burning seasons. Tropospheric HCHO is well simulated in the MACC reanalysis even though no satellite data are assimilated. It shows good agreement with independent SCIAMACHY retrievals over regions dominated by biogenic emissions with some anthropogenic input, such as the eastern US and China, and also over African regions influenced by biogenic sources and biomass burning.
The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of carriage of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) in a representative sample of the general adult Dutch community, to identify ...risk factors and to gain understanding of the epidemiology of these resistant strains.
Adults enrolled in five general practices in Amsterdam were approached by postal mail and asked to fill in a questionnaire and to collect a faecal sample. Samples were analysed for the presence of ESBL-E. ESBL genes were characterized by PCR and sequencing. Strains were typed using MLST and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and plasmids were identified by PCR-based replicon typing. Risk factors for carriage were investigated by multivariate analysis.
ESBL-E were found in 145/1695 (8.6%) samples; 91% were Escherichia coli. Most ESBL genes were of the CTX-M group (blaCTX-M-1 and blaCTX-M-15). MLST ST131 was predominant and mainly associated with CTX-M-15-producing E. coli. One isolate with reduced susceptibility to ertapenem produced OXA-48. In multivariate analyses, use of antimicrobial agents, use of antacids and travel to Africa, Asia and Northern America were associated with carriage of ESBL-E, in particular strains with blaCTX-M-14/15.
This study showed a high prevalence of ESBL-E carriage in the general Dutch community. Also, outside hospitals, the use of antibiotics was a risk factor; interestingly, use of antacids increased the risk of carriage. A major risk factor in the general population was travel to countries outside Europe, in particular to Asia, Africa and Northern America.
This study presents the new aerosol assimilation system, developed at the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, for the Global and regional Earth‐system Monitoring using Satellite and ...in‐situ data (GEMS) project. The aerosol modeling and analysis system is fully integrated in the operational four‐dimensional assimilation apparatus. Its purpose is to produce aerosol forecasts and reanalyses of aerosol fields using optical depth data from satellite sensors. This paper is the second of a series which describes the GEMS aerosol effort. It focuses on the theoretical architecture and practical implementation of the aerosol assimilation system. It also provides a discussion of the background errors and observations errors for the aerosol fields, and presents a subset of results from the 2‐year reanalysis which has been run for 2003 and 2004 using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on the Aqua and Terra satellites. Independent data sets are used to show that despite some compromises that have been made for feasibility reasons in regards to the choice of control variable and error characteristics, the analysis is very skillful in drawing to the observations and in improving the forecasts of aerosol optical depth.
Characterising the dynamics of landscape-scale wildfires at very high temporal resolutions is best achieved using observations from Earth Observation (EO) sensors mounted onboard geostationary ...satellites. As a result, a number of operational active fire products have been developed from the data of such sensors. An example of which are the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) products, the FRP-PIXEL and FRP-GRID products, generated by the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA SAF) from imagery collected by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series of geostationary EO satellites. The processing chain developed to deliver these FRP products detects SEVIRI pixels containing actively burning fires and characterises their FRP output across four geographic regions covering Europe, part of South America and Northern and Southern Africa. The FRP-PIXEL product contains the highest spatial and temporal resolution FRP data set, whilst the FRP-GRID product contains a spatio-temporal summary that includes bias adjustments for cloud cover and the non-detection of low FRP fire pixels. Here we evaluate these two products against active fire data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and compare the results to those for three alternative active fire products derived from SEVIRI imagery. The FRP-PIXEL product is shown to detect a substantially greater number of active fire pixels than do alternative SEVIRI-based products, and comparison to MODIS on a per-fire basis indicates a strong agreement and low bias in terms of FRP values. However, low FRP fire pixels remain undetected by SEVIRI, with errors of active fire pixel detection commission and omission compared to MODIS ranging between 9–13 % and 65–77 % respectively in Africa. Higher errors of omission result in greater underestimation of regional FRP totals relative to those derived from simultaneously collected MODIS data, ranging from 35 % over the Northern Africa region to 89 % over the European region. High errors of active fire omission and FRP underestimation are found over Europe and South America and result from SEVIRI's larger pixel area over these regions. An advantage of using FRP for characterising wildfire emissions is the ability to do so very frequently and in near-real time (NRT). To illustrate the potential of this approach, wildfire fuel consumption rates derived from the SEVIRI FRP-PIXEL product are used to characterise smoke emissions of the 2007 "mega-fire" event focused on Peloponnese (Greece) and used within the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a demonstration of what can be achieved when using geostationary active fire data within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Qualitative comparison of the modelled smoke plumes with MODIS optical imagery illustrates that the model captures the temporal and spatial dynamics of the plume very well, and that high temporal resolution emissions estimates such as those available from a geostationary orbit are important for capturing the sub-daily variability in smoke plume parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), which are increasingly less well resolved using daily or coarser temporal resolution emissions data sets. Quantitative comparison of modelled AOD with coincident MODIS and AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) AOD indicates that the former is overestimated by ~ 20–30 %, but captures the observed AOD dynamics with a high degree of fidelity. The case study highlights the potential of using geostationary FRP data to drive fire emissions estimates for use within atmospheric transport models such as those implemented in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) series of projects for the CAMS.
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