BackgroundFalls are the leading cause of fatal injuries among elderly adults. While socioeconomic status including education is a well-documented predictor of many individual health outcomes ...including mortality, little is known about socioeconomic inequalities in falls mortality among adults. This study aimed to assess educational inequalities in falls mortality among older adults in Sweden using multiple cause of death data.MethodsAll residents aged 50‒75 years in the Skåne region, Sweden, during 1998‒2013 (n=566 478) were followed until death, relocation outside Skåne or end of 2014. We identified any mention of falls on death certificates (n=1047). We defined three levels of education. We used an additive hazards model and Cox regression with age as time scale adjusted for marital status and country of birth to calculate slope and relative indices of inequality (SII/RII). We also computed the population attributable fraction of lower educational attainment. Analyses were performed separately for men and women.ResultsBoth SII and RII revealed statistically significant educational inequalities in falls mortality among men in favour of high educated (SII (95% CI): 15.5 (9.8 to 21.3) per 100 000 person-years; RII: 2.19 (1.60 to 3.00)) but not among women. Among men, 34% (95% CI 19 to 46) of falls deaths were attributable to lower education.ConclusionsThere was an inverse association between education and deaths from falls among men but not women. The results suggest that individual’s education should be considered in falls reduction interventions.
To evaluate the effect of alcohol cessation on the risk of developing laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers, combining available evidence in the scientific literature in a meta-analysis.
A systematic ...literature review was conducted, and a meta-analysis was applied on the retrieved studies. The generalised least squares method was used to estimate the trend from dose-response data to assess changes in the risks of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers after drinking cessation.
A total of 9 case-control studies were included in the meta-analysis (4 and 8 estimates for laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers, respectively). On average, alcohol drinking cessation was associated with a 2% yearly reduction in the risk of developing laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers. There was a considerable heterogeneity between the studies of pharyngeal cancer, but this was mostly due to two studies. The increased risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers caused by alcohol was reversible; the time periods until the risks became equal to those of never drinkers were 36 (95% CI 11-106) and 39 (95% CI 13-103) years, respectively. Moreover, 5 years of drinking cessation was associated with a reduction of around 15% in the alcohol-related elevated risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers.
Although a long time period is required to completely eliminate the alcohol-related elevated risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers, a substantial risk reduction can be seen in the short term (5-10 years), and drinking cessation should therefore be encouraged to reduce the incidence of these cancers.
Comparable estimates of health spending are crucial for the assessment of health systems and to optimally deploy health resources. The methods used to track health spending continue to evolve, but ...little is known about the distribution of spending across diseases. We developed improved estimates of health spending by source, including development assistance for health, and, for the first time, estimated HIV/AIDS spending on prevention and treatment and by source of funding, for 188 countries.
We collected published data on domestic health spending, from 1995 to 2015, from a diverse set of international agencies. We tracked development assistance for health from 1990 to 2017. We also extracted 5385 datapoints about HIV/AIDS spending, between 2000 and 2015, from online databases, country reports, and proposals submitted to multilateral organisations. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to generate complete and comparable estimates for health and HIV/AIDS spending. We report most estimates in 2017 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars and adjust all estimates for the effect of inflation.
Between 1995 and 2015, global health spending per capita grew at an annualised rate of 3·1% (95% uncertainty interval UI 3·1 to 3·2), with growth being largest in upper-middle-income countries (5·4% per capita UI 5·3–5·5) and lower-middle-income countries (4·2% per capita 4·2–4·3). In 2015, $9·7 trillion (9·7 trillion to 9·8 trillion) was spent on health worldwide. High-income countries spent $6·5 trillion (6·4 trillion to 6·5 trillion) or 66·3% (66·0 to 66·5) of the total in 2015, whereas low-income countries spent $70·3 billion (69·3 billion to 71·3 billion) or 0·7% (0·7 to 0·7). Between 1990 and 2017, development assistance for health increased by 394·7% ($29·9 billion), with an estimated $37·4 billion of development assistance being disbursed for health in 2017, of which $9·1 billion (24·2%) targeted HIV/AIDS. Between 2000 and 2015, $562·6 billion (531·1 billion to 621·9 billion) was spent on HIV/AIDS worldwide. Governments financed 57·6% (52·0 to 60·8) of that total. Global HIV/AIDS spending peaked at 49·7 billion (46·2–54·7) in 2013, decreasing to $48·9 billion (45·2 billion to 54·2 billion) in 2015. That year, low-income and lower-middle-income countries represented 74·6% of all HIV/AIDS disability-adjusted life-years, but just 36·6% (34·4 to 38·7) of total HIV/AIDS spending. In 2015, $9·3 billion (8·5 billion to 10·4 billion) or 19·0% (17·6 to 20·6) of HIV/AIDS financing was spent on prevention, and $27·3 billion (24·5 billion to 31·1 billion) or 55·8% (53·3 to 57·9) was dedicated to care and treatment.
From 1995 to 2015, total health spending increased worldwide, with the fastest per capita growth in middle-income countries. While these national disparities are relatively well known, low-income countries spent less per person on health and HIV/AIDS than did high-income and middle-income countries. Furthermore, declines in development assistance for health continue, including for HIV/AIDS. Additional cuts to development assistance could hasten this decline, and risk slowing progress towards global and national goals.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Equity in access to and utilization of health services is a common goal of policy-makers in most countries. The current study aimed to evaluate the distribution of need and access to health care ...services among Iran's rural population between 2006 and 2009.
Census data on population's characteristics in each province were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and National Organization for civil registration. Data about the Rural Health Houses (RHHs) were obtained from the Ministry of Health. The Health Houses-to-rural population ratio (RHP), crude birth rate (CBR) and crude mortality rate (CMR) in rural population were calculated in order to compare their distribution among the provinces. Lorenz curves of RHHs, CMR and CBR were plotted and their decile ratio, Gini Index and Index of Dissimilarity were calculated. Moreover, Spearman rank-order correlation was used to examine the relation between RHHs and CMR and CBR.
There were substantial differences in RHHs, CMR and CBR across the provinces. CMR and CBR experienced changes toward more equal distributions between 2006 and 2009, while inverse trend was seen for RHHs. Excluding three provinces with markedly changes in data between 2006 and 2009 as outliers, did not change observed trends. Moreover; there was a significant positive relationship between CMR and RHP in 2009 and a significant negative association between CBR and RHP in 2006 and 2009. When three provinces with outliers were excluded, these significant associations were disappeared.
Results showed that there were significant variations in the distribution of RHHs, CMR and CBR across the country. Moreover, the distribution of RHHs did not reflect the needs for health care in terms of CMR and CBR in the study period.
Predicting the risk of future events is an essential part of health economic simulation models. In pursuit of this goal, the current study aims to predict the risk of developing first and second ...acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, non-acute ischaemic heart disease, and stroke after diagnosis in patients with type 2 diabetes, using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.
Register data on 29,034 patients with type 2 diabetes were analysed over five years of follow up (baseline 2003). To develop and validate the risk equations, the sample was randomly divided into training (75%) and test (25%) subsamples. The Weibull proportional hazard model was used to estimate the coefficients of the risk equations, and these were validated in both the training and the test samples.
In total, 4,547 first and 2,418 second events were observed during the five years of follow up. Experiencing a first event substantially elevated the risk of subsequent events. There were heterogeneities in the effects of covariates within as well as between events; for example, while for females the hazard ratio of having a first acute myocardial infarction was 0.79 (0.70-0.90), the hazard ratio of a second was 1.21 (0.98-1.48). The hazards of second events decreased as the time since first events elapsed. The equations showed adequate calibration and discrimination (C statistics range: 0.70-0.84 in test samples).
The accuracy of health economic simulation models of type 2 diabetes can be improved by ensuring that they account for the heterogeneous effects of covariates on the risk of first and second cardiovascular events. Thus it is important to extend such models by including risk equations for second cardiovascular events.
IntroductionDespite favourable results from structured face-to-face treatment of osteoarthritis (OA) in Sweden through the Better management of patients with OsteoArthritis (BOA) initiative, only ...around 20% of people with knee or hip OA receive the primary treatment recommended by international guidelines (ie, information, exercise, weight management). In 2014, a digital treatment programme named Joint Academy was introduced in Sweden, based on the same concept as the face-to-face BOA programme. In line with BOA, Joint Academy follows national and international guidelines and best practice for OA treatment. Results from observational studies suggest that this digital treatment is a valuable alternative to the traditional treatment approach and can positively impact patients’ function and pain. However, conclusions from such studies commonly suggest that more rigorous testing is necessary to ascertain the benefits of digital treatment delivery for people with OA.Methods and analysisA randomised clinical trial will be performed, comparing regular face-to-face care according to BOA with the digital version, Joint Academy. A total of 270 participants with clinically diagnosed knee OA will be recruited at primary care centres and randomised to either standard treatment (BOA) for 3 months, or the experimental group (digital intervention programme). Both groups will receive educational sessions and exercises yet with a difference in programme deliverance. The objective of the trial is to evaluate the effectiveness of the online treatment programme, in comparison with BOA. The two treatment groups will be compared with respect to the number of repetitions of the 30 s chair stand test at 3, 6 and 12 months, using a mixed model repeated measures analysis of variance.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been attained from the Regional Board of Ethics in Lund, Sweden (Dnr 2017/719). Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration number NCT03328741.
Esophagus cancer (EC) is among the five most common cancers in both sexes in Iran, with an incidence rate well above world average. Social rank (SR) of individuals and regions are well-known ...independent predictors of EC incidence. The aim of current study was to assess gender and social disparities in EC incidence across Iran's provinces through 2003-2009.
Data on distribution of population at province level were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates of EC were gathered from the National Cancer Registry. The Human Development Index (HDI) was used to assess the province social rank. Rate ratios and Kunst and Mackenbach relative indices of inequality (RIIKM) were used to assess gender and social inequalities, respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated using joinpoint regression.
EC incidence rate increased 4.6% and 6.5% per year among females and males, respectively. There were no gender disparities in EC incidence over the study period. There were substantial social disparities in favor of better-off provinces in Iran. These social disparities were generally the same between males and females and were stable over the study period.
The results showed an inverse association between the provinces' social rank and EC incidence rate in Iran. In addition, I found that, in contrast with international trends, women are at the same risk of EC as men in Iran. Further investigations are needed to explain these disparities in EC incidence across the provinces.
Summary measures of health are essential in making estimates of health status that are comparable across time and place. They can be used for assessing the performance of health systems, informing ...effective policy making, and monitoring the progress of nations toward achievement of sustainable development goals. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) as main summary measures of health. We assessed the trends of health status in Iran and 15 neighboring countries using these summary measures.
We used the results of GBD 2015 to present the levels and trends of DALYs, life expectancy (LE), and HALE in Iran and its 15 neighboring countries from 1990 to 2015. For each country, we assessed the ratio of observed levels of DALYs and HALE to those expected based on socio-demographic index (SDI), an indicator composed of measures of total fertility rate, income per capita, and average years of schooling.
All-age numbers of DALYs reached over 19 million years in Iran in 2015. The all-age number of DALYs has remained stable during the past two decades in Iran, despite the decreasing trends in all-age and age-standardized rates. The all-cause DALY rates decreased from 47,200 in 1990 to 28,400 per 100,000 in 2015. The share of non-communicable diseases in DALYs increased in Iran (from 42% to 74%) and all of its neighbors between 1990 and 2015; the pattern of change is similar in almost all 16 countries. The DALY rates for NCDs and injuries in Iran were higher than global rates and the average rate in High Middle SDI countries, while those for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders were much lower in Iran. Among men, cardiovascular diseases ranked first in all countries of the region except for Bahrain. Among women, they ranked first in 13 countries. Life expectancy and HALE show a consistent increase in all countries. Still, there are dissimilarities indicating a generally low LE and HALE in Afghanistan and Pakistan and high expectancy in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Iran ranked 11th in terms of LE at birth and 12th in terms of HALE at birth in 1990 which improved to 9th for both metrics in 2015. Turkey and Iran had the highest increase in LE and HALE from 1990 to 2015 while the lowest increase was observed in Armenia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq.
The levels and trends in causes of DALYs, life expectancy, and HALE generally show similarities between the 16 countries, although differences exist. The differences observed between countries can be attributed to a myriad of determinants, including social, cultural, ethnic, religious, political, economic, and environmental factors as well as the performance of the health system. Investigating the differences between countries can inform more effective health policy and resource allocation. Concerted efforts at national and regional levels are required to tackle the emerging burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries in Iran and its neighbors.
To estimate cause-specific mortality in osteoarthritis patients compared to the general population.
We identified all residents in southern Sweden aged 45–84 years in 2003. Through the Skåne ...Healthcare Register (SHR) we identified those diagnosed with osteoarthritis in peripheral joints between 1998 and 2003. We followed all residents from 2004 until relocation outside of the region, death, or end of 2014. We classified the underlying cause of death from death certificates into: cardiovascular and neoplasms, diabetes, infections, dementia, diseases of digestive system, or other causes. For estimation, we used multi-state adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.
We identified 15,901 patients (mean age SD 67 years 10, 41% men) with prevalent doctor-diagnosed osteoarthritis in knee, 9347 in hip, 4004 in hand and 5447 in other peripheral joints among 469,177 residents. For most causes of death in osteoarthritis patients, we found no increased mortality, with hazard ratios (HRs) close to 1, similar for men and women. However, for knee and hip osteoarthritis and cardiovascular death, HRs were non proportional and increased to 1.19 (95%CI 1.10, 1.28) and 1.13 (1.03, 1.24) during 9–11 years of follow-up, mostly due to excess mortality from chronic ischemic heart diseases and heart failure.
The risk of cardiovascular excess deaths increases with duration of knee and hip osteoarthritis. The major contributors are chronic ischemic heart diseases and heart failure. Our results call for improved implementation of osteoarthritis treatment guidelines, with major focus on interventions to address mobility limitations and maintaining or increase physical activity level.
To aid informed health sector decision-making, data from sufficient high quality economic evaluations must be available to policy makers. To date, no known study has analysed the quantity and quality ...of available Iranian economic evaluation studies. This study aimed to assess the quantity, quality and targeting of economic evaluation studies conducted in the Iranian context. The study systematically reviewed full economic evaluation studies (n = 30) published between 1999 and 2012 in international and local journals. The findings of the review indicate that although the literature on economic evaluation in Iran is growing, these evaluations were of poor quality and suffer from several major methodological flaws. Furthermore, the review reveals that economic evaluation studies have not addressed the major health problems in Iran. While the availability of evidence is no guarantee that it will be used to aid decision-making, the absence of evidence will certainly preclude its use. Considering the deficiencies in the data identified by this review, current economic evaluations cannot be a useful source of information for decision makers in Iran. To improve the quality and overall usefulness of economic evaluations we would recommend; 1) developing clear national guidelines for the conduct of economic evaluations, 2) highlighting priority areas where information from such studies would be most useful and 3) training researchers and policy makers in the calculation and use of economic evaluation data.
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