Numerous prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Unknown parameters of these models are often estimated based on observational data. However, lag in case-reporting, ...changing testing policy or incompleteness of data lead to biased estimates. Moreover, parametrization is time-dependent due to changing age-structures, emerging virus variants, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccination programs. To cover these aspects, we propose a principled approach to parametrize a SIR-type epidemiologic model by embedding it as a hidden layer into an input-output non-linear dynamical system (IO-NLDS). Observable data are coupled to hidden states of the model by appropriate data models considering possible biases of the data. This includes data issues such as known delays or biases in reporting. We estimate model parameters including their time-dependence by a Bayesian knowledge synthesis process considering parameter ranges derived from external studies as prior information. We applied this approach on a specific SIR-type model and data of Germany and Saxony demonstrating good prediction performances. Our approach can estimate and compare the relative effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and provide scenarios of the future course of the epidemic under specified conditions. It can be translated to other data sets, i.e., other countries and other SIR-type models.
Stratification of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) based on HPV16 DNA and RNA status, gene expression patterns, and mutated candidate genes may facilitate patient treatment decision. We ...characterize head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) with different HPV16 DNA and RNA (E6*I) status from 290 consecutively recruited patients by gene expression profiling and targeted sequencing of 50 genes. We show that tumors with transcriptionally inactive HPV16 (DNA+ RNA‐) are similar to HPV‐negative (DNA‐) tumors regarding gene expression and frequency of TP53 mutations (47%, 8/17 and 43%, 72/167, respectively). We also find that an immune response‐related gene expression cluster is associated with lymph node metastasis, independent of HPV16 status and that disruptive TP53 mutations are associated with lymph node metastasis in HPV16 DNA‐ tumors. We validate each of these associations in another large data set. Four gene expression clusters which we identify differ moderately but significantly in overall survival. Our findings underscore the importance of measuring the HPV16 RNA (E6*I) and TP53‐mutation status for patient stratification and identify associations of an immune response‐related gene expression cluster and TP53 mutations with lymph node metastasis in HNSCC.
What's new?
Often, head and neck cancers are categorized by HPV16 status, because the presence of the virus tends to correlate with better survival. But the presence of HPV16 DNA in the tumor may not influence the disease characteristics if that DNA isn't expressed. These authors examined gene expression profiles and molecular characteristics of HNSCC cells, and found that those containing HPV16 DNA, but not RNA, shared characteristics with those containing no HPV16 DNA at all. Thus, to get meaningful predictive information about the cancer, it's important to verify that the HPV16 DNA is being expressed by testing for HPV16 RNA.
Abstract
Context
Steroid hormones are important regulators of physiological processes in humans and are under genetic control. A link to coronary artery disease (CAD) is supposed.
Objective
Our main ...objective was to identify genetic loci influencing steroid hormone levels. As a secondary aim, we searched for causal effects of steroid hormones on CAD.
Design
We conducted genome-wide meta-association studies for eight steroid hormones: cortisol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS), estradiol, and testosterone in two independent cohorts (LIFE-Adult, LIFE-Heart, maximum n = 7667), and progesterone, 17-hydroxyprogesterone, androstenedione, and aldosterone in LIFE-Heart only (maximum n = 2070). All genome-wide significant loci were tested for sex interactions. Furthermore, we tested whether previously reported CAD single-nucleotide polymorphisms were associated with our steroid hormone panel and investigated causal links between hormone levels and CAD status using Mendelian randomization (MR) approaches.
Results
We discovered 15 novel associated loci for 17-hydroxyprogesterone, progesterone, DHEAS, cortisol, androstenedione, and estradiol. Five of these loci relate to genes directly involved in steroid metabolism, that is, CYP21A1, CYP11B1, CYP17A1, STS, and HSD17B12, almost completing the set of steroidogenic enzymes with genetic associations. Sexual dimorphisms were found for seven of the novel loci. Other loci correspond, for example, to the WNT4/β-catenin pathway. MR revealed that cortisol, androstenedione, 17-hydroxyprogesterone, and DHEA-S had causal effects on CAD. We also observed enrichment of cortisol and testosterone associations among known CAD hits.
Conclusion
Our study greatly improves insight into genetic regulation of steroid hormones and their dependency on sex. These results could serve as a basis for analyzing sexual dimorphism in other complex diseases.
Genome-wide analysis of eight steroid hormones revealed 15 novel loci involving several steroid-converting enzymes. Mendelian randomization found four steroids causally related to coronary artery disease.
Understanding mild to moderate symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is important in order to identify active cases early and thus counteract transmission.
In March 2020, Leipzig University ...Hospital established an outpatient clinic for patients potentially infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Confirmed cases with mild to moderate symptoms self-isolated at home and were followed-up by daily telephone calls for at least 14 days. Symptoms and course of illness of these patients are reported here.
From March 20 to April 17, 2020, 1460 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by naso- or oropharyngeal swab for real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Covid-19 was confirmed in 91 (6.2%) patients, of which 87 were included in the final analysis. Patients presented for testing after a mean of 5.9 days (IQR = 2.0-8.5). The median age was 37.0 years (IQR = 28.5-53), and 48 (55.2%) were female. Five (5.7%) patients required hospital admission during the course of illness. Most frequently reported symptoms were fatigue (n = 64, 74%), cough (n = 58, 67%), and hyposmia/hypogeusia (n = 44, 51%). In contrast to previous reports, fever occurred in less than a third of patients (n = 25, 29%). By day 14, more than half of the patients had recovered completely (n = 37/70, 52.9%).
Fever seems to be less common in patients of relatively young age diagnosed with mild to moderate Covid-19. This suggests that body temperature alone may be an insufficient indicator of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Background The pathophysiology of arterial stiffness is not completely understood. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is an established marker for arterial stiffness. We compare genetics of three PWV modes, ...namely carotid-femoral PWV (cfPWV), brachial-ankle (baPWV) and brachial-femoral (bfPWV), reflecting different vascular segments to analyse association with genetic variants, heritability and genetic correlation with other biological traits. Furthermore we searched for shared genetic architecture concerning PWV, blood pressure (BP) and coronary artery disease (CAD) and examined the causal relationship between PWV and BP. Methods and results We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for cfPWV, baPWV and bfPWV in LIFE-Adult (N = 3,643-6,734). We analysed the overlap of detected genetic loci with those of BP and CAD and performed genetic correlation analyses. By bidirectional Mendelian Randomization, we assessed the causal relationships between PWV and BP. For cfPWV we identified a new locus with genome-wide significance near SLC4A7 on cytoband 3p24.1 (lead SNP rs939834: p = 2.05x10.sup.-8). We replicated a known PWV locus on cytoband 14q32.2 near RP11-61O1.1 (lead SNPs: rs17773233, p = 1.38x10.sup.-4 ; rs1381289, p = 1.91x10.sup.-4) For baPWV we estimated a heritability of 28% and significant genetic correlation with hypertension (rg = 0.27, p = 6.65x10.sup.-8). We showed a positive causal effect of systolic blood pressure on PWV modes (cfPWV: p = 1.51x10.sup.-4 ; bfPWV: p = 1.45x10.sup.-3 ; baPWV: p = 6.82x10.sup.-15). Conclusions We identified a new locus for arterial stiffness and successfully replicated an earlier proposed locus. PWV shares common genetic architecture with BP and CAD. BP causally affects PWV. Larger studies are required to further unravel the genetic determinants and effects of PWV.
Arousal affects cognition, emotion, and behavior and has been implicated in the etiology of psychiatric disorders. Although environmental conditions substantially contribute to the level of arousal, ...stable interindividual characteristics are well-established and a genetic basis has been suggested. Here we investigated the molecular genetics of brain arousal in the resting state by conducting a genome-wide association study (GWAS). We selected N = 1877 participants from the population-based LIFE-Adult cohort. Participants underwent a 20-min eyes-closed resting state EEG, which was analyzed using the computerized VIGALL 2.1 (Vigilance Algorithm Leipzig). At the SNP-level, GWAS analyses revealed no genome-wide significant locus (p < 5E-8), although seven loci were suggestive (p < 1E-6). The strongest hit was an expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) of TMEM159 (lead-SNP: rs79472635, p = 5.49E-8). Importantly, at the gene-level, GWAS analyses revealed significant evidence for TMEM159 (p = 0.013, Bonferroni-corrected). By mapping our SNPs to the GWAS results from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, we found that all corresponding markers of TMEM159 showed nominally significant associations with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD; 0.006 ≤ p ≤ 0.011). More specifically, variants associated with high arousal levels have previously been linked to an increased risk for MDD. In line with this, the MetaXcan database suggests increased expression levels of TMEM159 in MDD, as well as Autism Spectrum Disorder, and Alzheimer's Disease. Furthermore, our pathway analyses provided evidence for a role of sodium/calcium exchangers in resting state arousal. In conclusion, the present GWAS identifies TMEM159 as a novel candidate gene which may modulate the risk for psychiatric disorders through arousal mechanisms. Our results also encourage the elaboration of the previously reported interrelations between ion-channel modulators, sleep-wake behavior, and psychiatric disorders.
Developmental dyslexia, a severe deficit in literacy learning, is a neurodevelopmental learning disorder. Yet, it is not clear whether existing neurobiological accounts of dyslexia capture potential ...predispositions of the deficit or consequences of reduced reading experience. Here, we longitudinally followed 32 children from preliterate to school age using functional and structural magnetic resonance imaging techniques. Based on standardised and age-normed reading and spelling tests administered at school age, children were classified as 16 dyslexic participants and 16 controls. This longitudinal design allowed us to disentangle possible neurobiological predispositions for developing dyslexia from effects of individual differences in literacy experience. In our sample, the disorder can be predicted already before literacy learning from auditory cortex gyrification and aberrant downstream connectivity within the speech processing system. These results provide evidence for the notion that dyslexia may originate from an atypical maturation of the speech network that precedes literacy instruction.
•Longitudinal MRI study following preliterate children developing dyslexia.•Auditory cortex folding was more variable in dyslexic children.•Altered speech network connectivity in dyslexia predates literacy instruction.•Combination of neural and behavioural data reliably predicted dyslexia before school.
Carboxyl ester lipase is a digestive pancreatic enzyme encoded by the CEL gene. Mutations in CEL cause maturity-onset diabetes of the young as well as pancreatic exocrine dysfunction. Here we ...describe a hybrid allele (CEL-HYB) originating from a crossover between CEL and its neighboring pseudogene, CELP. In a discovery series of familial chronic pancreatitis cases, we observed CEL-HYB in 14.1% (10/71) of cases compared to 1.0% (5/478) of controls (odds ratio (OR) = 15.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.1-46.9; P = 1.3 × 10(-6) by two-tailed Fisher's exact test). In three replication studies of nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis, we identified CEL-HYB in a total of 3.7% (42/1,122) cases and 0.7% (30/4,152) controls (OR = 5.2; 95% CI = 3.2-8.5; P = 1.2 × 10(-11); formal meta-analysis). The allele was also enriched in alcoholic chronic pancreatitis. Expression of CEL-HYB in cellular models showed reduced lipolytic activity, impaired secretion, prominent intracellular accumulation and induced autophagy. These findings implicate a new pathway distinct from the protease-antiprotease system of pancreatic acinar cells in chronic pancreatitis.
Carotid artery plaque is an established marker of subclinical atherosclerosis with pronounced sex-dimorphism. Here, we aimed to identify genetic variants associated with carotid plaque burden (CPB) ...and to examine potential sex-specific genetic effects on plaque sizes.
We defined six operationalizations of CPB considering plaques in common carotid arteries, carotid bulb, and internal carotid arteries. We performed sex-specific genome-wide association analyses for all traits in the LIFE-Adult cohort (n = 727 men and n = 550 women) and tested significantly associated loci for sex-specific effects. In order to identify causal genes, we analyzed candidate gene expression data for correlation with CPB traits and corresponding sex-specific effects. Further, we tested if previously reported SNP associations with CAD and plaque prevalence are also associated with CBP. We found seven loci with suggestive significance for CPB (p<3.33x10-7), explaining together between 6 and 13% of the CPB variance. Sex-specific analysis showed a genome-wide significant hit for men at 5q31.1 (rs201629990, β = -0.401, p = 5.22x10-9), which was not associated in women (β = -0.127, p = 0.093) with a significant difference in effect size (p = 0.008). Analyses of gene expression data suggested IL5 as the most plausible candidate, as it reflected the same sex-specific association with CPBs (p = 0.037). Known plaque prevalence or CAD loci showed no enrichment in the association with CPB.
We showed that CPB is a complementary trait in analyzing genetics of subclinical atherosclerosis. We detected a novel locus for plaque size in men only suggesting a role of IL5. Several estrogen response elements in this locus point towards a functional explanation of the observed sex-specific effect.
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