Health care provision is increasingly focused on the prediction of patients’ individual risk for developing a particular health outcome in planning further tests and treatments. There has been a ...steady increase in the development and publication of prognostic models for various maternal and fetal outcomes in obstetrics. We undertook a systematic review to give an overview of the current status of available prognostic models in obstetrics in the context of their potential advantages and the process of developing and validating models. Important aspects to consider when assessing a prognostic model are discussed and recommendations on how to proceed on this within the obstetric domain are given. We searched MEDLINE (up to July 2012) for articles developing prognostic models in obstetrics. We identified 177 papers that reported the development of 263 prognostic models for 40 different outcomes. The most frequently predicted outcomes were preeclampsia (n = 69), preterm delivery (n = 63), mode of delivery (n = 22), gestational hypertension (n = 11), and small-for-gestational-age infants (n = 10). The performance of newer models was generally not better than that of older models predicting the same outcome. The most important measures of predictive accuracy (ie, a model’s discrimination and calibration) were often (82.9%, 218/263) not both assessed. Very few developed models were validated in data other than the development data (8.7%, 23/263). Only two-thirds of the papers (62.4%, 164/263) presented the model such that validation in other populations was possible, and the clinical applicability was discussed in only 11.0% (29/263). The impact of developed models on clinical practice was unknown. We identified a large number of prognostic models in obstetrics, but there is relatively little evidence about their performance, impact, and usefulness in clinical practice so that at this point, clinical implementation cannot be recommended. New efforts should be directed toward evaluating the performance and impact of the existing models.
Summary Background Robust evidence to direct management of pregnant women with mild hypertensive disease at term is scarce. We investigated whether induction of labour in women with a singleton ...pregnancy complicated by gestational hypertension or mild pre-eclampsia reduces severe maternal morbidity. Methods We undertook a multicentre, parallel, open-label randomised controlled trial in six academic and 32 non-academic hospitals in the Netherlands between October, 2005, and March, 2008. We enrolled patients with a singleton pregnancy at 36–41 weeks' gestation, and who had gestational hypertension or mild pre-eclampsia. Participants were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio by block randomisation with a web-based application system to receive either induction of labour or expectant monitoring. Masking of intervention allocation was not possible. The primary outcome was a composite measure of poor maternal outcome—maternal mortality, maternal morbidity (eclampsia, HELLP syndrome, pulmonary oedema, thromboembolic disease, and placental abruption), progression to severe hypertension or proteinuria, and major post-partum haemorrhage (>1000 mL blood loss). Analysis was by intention to treat and treatment effect is presented as relative risk. This study is registered, number ISRCTN08132825. Findings 756 patients were allocated to receive induction of labour (n=377 patients) or expectant monitoring (n=379). 397 patients refused randomisation but authorised use of their medical records. Of women who were randomised, 117 (31%) allocated to induction of labour developed poor maternal outcome compared with 166 (44%) allocated to expectant monitoring (relative risk 0·71, 95% CI 0·59–0·86, p<0·0001). No cases of maternal or neonatal death or eclampsia were recorded. Interpretation Induction of labour is associated with improved maternal outcome and should be advised for women with mild hypertensive disease beyond 37 weeks' gestation. Funding ZonMw.
ST-analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram (ECG) (STAN® ) combined with cardiotocography (CTG) for intrapartum fetal monitoring has been developed following many years of animal research. Changes in ...the ST-segment of the fetal ECG correlated with fetal hypoxia occurring during labor. In 1993 the first randomized controlled trial (RCT), comparing CTG with CTG + ST-analysis was published. STAN® was introduced for daily practice in 2000. To date, six RCTs have been performed, out of which five have been published. Furthermore, there are six published meta-analyses. The meta-analyses showed that CTG + ST-analysis reduced the risks of vaginal operative delivery by about 10% and fetal blood sampling by 40%. There are conflicting results regarding the effect on metabolic acidosis, much because of controveries about which RCTs should be included in a meta-analysis, and because of differences in methodology, execution and quality of the meta-analyses. Several cohort studies have been published, some showing significant decrease of metabolic acidosis after the introduction of ST-analysis. In this review, we discuss not only the scientific evidence from the RCTs and meta-analyses, but also the limitations of these studies. In conclusion, ST-analysis is effective in reducing operative vaginal deliveries and fetal blood sampling but the effect on neonatal metabolic acidosis is still under debate. Further research is needed to determine the place of ST-analysis in the labor ward for daily practice.
Objective The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of electronic fetal monitoring (EFM) alone and with additional ST analysis (EFM + ST) in laboring women with a singleton term ...pregnancy that is in cephalic presentation in the prevention of metabolic acidosis by the application of individual patient data metaanalysis. Study Design We conducted an individual patient data metaanalysis using data from 4 randomized trials, which enabled us to account for missing data and investigate relevant subgroups. The primary outcome was metabolic acidosis, which was defined as an umbilical cord-artery pH <7.05 and a base deficit that had been calculated in the extra cellular fluid compartment >12 mmol/L. We performed 8 explanatory subgroup analyses for 8 different endpoints. Results We analyzed data from 12,987 women and their newborn infants. Metabolic acidosis was present in 57 women (0.9%) in the EFM + ST group and 73 women (1.1%) in the EFM alone group (relative risk RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.53–1.10). Compared with EFM alone, the use of EFM + ST resulted in a reduction in the frequency of instrumental vaginal deliveries (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83–0.99) and fetal blood samples (RR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.44–0.55). Cesarean delivery rates were comparable between both groups (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.91–1.09). Subgroup analyses showed that EFM + ST resulted in fewer admissions to a neonatal intensive care unit for women with a duration of pregnancy of >41 weeks (RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39–0.95). Conclusion EFM + ST does not reduce the risk of metabolic acidosis, but it does reduce the need for instrumental vaginal deliveries and fetal blood sampling.
Objective The evidence for the management of near term prelabor rupture of membranes is poor. From January 2007 until September 2009, we performed the PPROM Expectant Management versus Induction of ...Labor (PPROMEXIL) trial. In this trial, we showed that in women with preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM), the incidence of neonatal sepsis was low, and the induction of labor (IoL) did not reduce this risk. Because the PPROMEXIL trial was underpowered and because of a lower-than-expected incidence of neonatal sepsis, we performed a second trial (PPROMEXIL-2), aiming to randomize 200 patients to improve the evidence in near-term PPROM. Study Design In a nationwide multicenter study, nonlaboring women with PPROM between 34 and 37 weeks' gestational age were eligible for inclusion. Patients were randomized to IoL or expectant management (EM). The primary outcome measure was neonatal sepsis. Results From December 2009 until January 2011, we randomized 100 women to IoL and 95 to EM. Neonatal sepsis was seen in 3 neonates (3.0%) in the IoL-group versus 4 neonates (4.1%) in the EM group (relative risk, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.17–3.2). One of the sepsis cases in the IoL group resulted in neonatal death because of asphyxia. There were no significant differences in secondary outcomes. Conclusion The risk of neonatal sepsis after PPROM near term is low. Induction of labor does not reduce this risk.
Objective We sought to study long-term (neuro)developmental and behavioral outcome of pregnancies complicated by intrauterine growth restriction at term in relation to induction of labor or an ...expectant management. Study Design Parents of 2-year-old children included in the Disproportionate Intrauterine Growth Intervention Trial at Term (DIGITAT) answered the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) and Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). Results We approached 582 (89.5%) of 650 parents. The response rate was 50%. Of these children, 27% had an abnormal score on the ASQ and 13% on the CBCL. Results of the ASQ and the CBCL for the 2 policies were comparable. Low birthweight, positive Morbidity Assessment Index score, and admission to intermediate care increased the risk of an abnormal outcome of the ASQ. This effect was not seen for the CBCL. Conclusion In women with intrauterine growth restriction at term, neither a policy of induction of labor nor expectant management affect developmental and behavioral outcome when compared to expectant management.
Objective To evaluate the management of imminent preterm delivery with respect to prescription of antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) and referral to a tertiary center. Study Design A retrospective ...cohort study existing of 1 perinatal center and 9 referring hospitals. All women who received their first dose of ACS in 1 of the 10 hospitals between 24+0 and 32+0 weeks of gestation and/or delivered before 32 weeks of gestation from 2005 until 2010. Patients were identified using the electronic database of hospital pharmacies. Main outcome measures were time interval from administration to delivery for different indications and number of women who were not referred in time to a tertiary center. Results In total, 1375 women received ACS. Main indications were suspected preterm labor (44.7%), preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (15.9%), maternal indication (12.8%), fetal indication (9.2%) and vaginal blood loss (8.4%). Overall, 467 (34.0%) women delivered ≤7 days after ACS administration; 8.7% of women with vaginal blood loss and 54.5% of women with maternal indication. Among the 931 women who received ACS in the secondary hospitals, 452 (48.5%) women were referred to a tertiary hospital and 89 (6.5%) women delivered in a secondary hospital with a gestational age of less than 32 weeks. Conclusion One-third of all women receiving ACS delivered within 7 days and half of the women who received ACS in a secondary hospital were referred to a tertiary center. There seems to be room for improvement regarding the timing of ACS administration and subsequently referral to a tertiary center.
Objective The Disproportionate Intrauterine Growth Intervention Trial at Term (DIGITAT) compared induction of labor and expectant management in suspected intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) at ...term. In this subanalysis, we report neonatal morbidity between the policies based on the Morbidity Assessment Index for Newborns (MAIN). Study Design We used data from the DIGITAT. For each neonate, we calculated the MAIN score, a validated outcome scale. Results There were no differences in mean MAIN scores or in MAIN morbidity categories. We found that neonatal admissions are lower after 38 weeks' gestational age compared with 36 and 37 weeks in both groups. Conclusion The incidence of neonatal morbidity in IUGR at term is comparable and relatively mild either after induction or after an expectant policy. However, neonatal admissions are lower after 38 weeks of pregnancy, so if induction to preempt possible stillbirth is considered, it is reasonable to delay until 38 weeks, provided watchful monitoring.
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