Nonparametric star formation histories (SFHs) have long promised to be the "gold standard" for galaxy spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling as they are flexible enough to describe the full ...diversity of SFH shapes, whereas parametric models rule out a significant fraction of these shapes a priori. However, this flexibility is not fully constrained even with high-quality observations, making it critical to choose a well-motivated prior. Here, we use the SED-fitting code Prospector to explore the effect of different nonparametric priors by fitting SFHs to mock UV-IR photometry generated from a diverse set of input SFHs. First, we confirm that nonparametric SFHs recover input SFHs with less bias and return more accurate errors than do parametric SFHs. We further find that, while nonparametric SFHs robustly recover the overall shape of the input SFH, the primary determinant of the size and shape of the posterior star formation rate as a function of time (SFR(t)) is the choice of prior, rather than the photometric noise. As a practical demonstration, we fit the UV-IR photometry of ∼6000 galaxies from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly survey and measure scatters between priors to be 0.1 dex in mass, 0.8 dex in SFR100 Myr, and 0.2 dex in mass-weighted ages, with the bluest star-forming galaxies showing the most sensitivity. An important distinguishing characteristic for nonparametric models is the characteristic timescale for changes in SFR(t). This difference controls whether galaxies are assembled in bursts or in steady-state star formation, corresponding respectively to (feedback-dominated/accretion-dominated) models of galaxy formation and to (larger/smaller) confidence intervals derived from SED fitting. High-quality spectroscopy has the potential to further distinguish between these proposed models of SFR(t).
Parametric models for galaxy star formation histories (SFHs) are widely used, though they are known to impose strong priors on physical parameters. This has consequences for measurements of the ...galaxy stellar-mass function, star formation rate density (SFRD), and star-forming main sequence (SFMS). We investigate the effects of the exponentially declining, delayed exponentially declining, lognormal, and double power-law SFH models using Bagpipes. We demonstrate that each of these models imposes strong priors on specific star formation rates (SFRs), potentially biasing the SFMS, and also imposes a strong prior preference for young stellar populations. We show that stellar mass, SFR, and mass-weighted age inferences from high-quality mock photometry vary with the choice of SFH model by at least 0.1, 0.3, and 0.2 dex, respectively. However, the biases with respect to the true values depend more on the true SFH shape than the choice of model. We also demonstrate that photometric data cannot discriminate between SFH models, meaning that it is important to perform independent tests to find well-motivated priors. We finally fit a low-redshift, volume-complete sample of galaxies from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) Survey with each model. We demonstrate that our stellar masses and SFRs at redshift z ∼ 0.05 are consistent with other analyses. However, our inferred cosmic SFRDs peak at z ∼ 0.4, approximately 6 Gyr later than direct observations suggest, meaning that our mass-weighted ages are significantly underestimated. This makes the use of parametric SFH models for understanding mass assembly in galaxies challenging. In a companion paper, we consider nonparametric SFH models.
Abstract
The primary method for inferring the stellar mass (
M
*
) of a galaxy is through spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling. However, the technique rests on assumptions such as the galaxy ...star formation history (SFH) and dust attenuation law that can severely impact the accuracy of derived physical properties from SED modeling. Here we examine the effect that the assumed SFH has on the stellar properties inferred from SED fitting by ground-truthing them against mock observations of high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamic galaxy formation simulations. Classically, SFHs are modeled with simplified parameterized functional forms, but these forms are unlikely to capture the true diversity of galaxy SFHs and may impose systematic biases with underreported uncertainties on results. We demonstrate that flexible nonparametric SFHs outperform traditional parametric forms in capturing variations in galaxy SFHs and, as a result, lead to significantly improved stellar masses in SED fitting. We find a decrease in the average bias of 0.4 dex with a delayed-
τ
model to a bias under 0.1 dex for the nonparametric model, though this is heavily dependent on the choice of prior for the nonparametric model. Similarly, using nonparametric SFHs in SED fitting results in increased accuracy in recovered galaxy star formation rates and stellar ages.
Forward modeling of the full galaxy SED is a powerful technique, providing self-consistent constraints on stellar ages, dust properties, and metallicities. However, the accuracy of these results is ...contingent on the accuracy of the model. One significant source of uncertainty is the contribution of obscured AGN, as they are relatively common and can produce substantial mid-IR (MIR) emission. Here we include emission from dusty AGN torii in the Prospector SED-fitting framework, and fit the UV-IR broadband photometry of 129 nearby galaxies. We find that 10% of the fitted galaxies host an AGN contributing >10% of the observed galaxy MIR luminosity. We demonstrate the necessity of this AGN component in the following ways. First, we compare observed spectral features to spectral features predicted from our model fit to the photometry. We find that the AGN component greatly improves predictions for observed H and Hβ luminosities, as well as mid-infrared Akari and Spitzer/IRS spectra. Second, we show that inclusion of the AGN component changes stellar ages and SFRs by up to a factor of 10, and dust attenuations by up to a factor of 2.5. Finally, we show that the strength of our model AGN component correlates with independent AGN indicators, suggesting that these galaxies truly host AGN. Notably, only 46% of the SED-detected AGN would be detected with a simple MIR color selection. Based on these results, we conclude that SED models which fit MIR data without AGN components are vulnerable to substantial bias in their derived parameters.
ABSTRACT
The variety of star formation histories (SFHs) of z ≳ 6 galaxies provides important insights into early star formation, but has been difficult to systematically quantify. Some observations ...suggest that many z ∼ 6–9 galaxies are dominated by ≳200 Myr stellar populations, implying significant star formation at z ≳ 9, while others find that most reionization era galaxies are ≲10 Myr, consistent with little z ≳ 9 star formation. Here, we quantify the distribution of ages of UV-bright ($-22.5\lesssim M_{\rm \small UV}\lesssim -21$) galaxies colour-selected to lie at z ≃ 6.6–6.9, an ideal redshift range to systematically study the SFHs of reionization era galaxies with ground-based observatories and Spitzer. We infer galaxy properties with two SED modelling codes and compare results, finding that stellar masses are largely insensitive to the model, but the inferred ages can vary by an order of magnitude. We infer a distribution of ages assuming a simple, parametric SFH model, finding a median age of ∼30–70 Myr depending on SED model. We quantify the fractions of ≤10 and ≥250 Myr galaxies, finding that these systems comprise ∼15–30 per cent and ∼20–25 per cent of the population, respectively. With a flexible SFH model, the shapes of the SFHs are consistent with those implied by the simple model (e.g. young galaxies have rapidly rising SFHs). However, stellar masses can differ significantly, with those of young systems sometimes being more than an order of magnitude larger with the flexible SFH. We quantify the implications of these results for z ≳ 9 stellar mass assembly and discuss improvements expected from JWST.
Galaxy observations are influenced by many physical parameters: stellar masses, star formation rates (SFRs), star formation histories (SFHs), metallicities, dust, black hole activity, and more. As a ...result, inferring accurate physical parameters requires high-dimensional models that capture or marginalize over this complexity. Here we reassess inferences of galaxy stellar masses and SFRs using the 14-parameter physical model Prospector- built in the Prospector Bayesian inference framework. We fit the photometry of 58,461 galaxies from the 3D-HST catalogs at 0.5 < z < 2.5. The resulting stellar masses are ∼0.1-0.3 dex larger than the fiducial masses while remaining consistent with dynamical constraints. This change is primarily due to the systematically older SFHs inferred with Prospector. The SFRs are ∼0.1-1+ dex lower than UV+IR SFRs, with the largest offsets caused by emission from "old" (t > 100 Myr) stars. These new inferences lower the observed cosmic SFR density by ∼0.2 dex and increase the observed stellar mass growth by ∼0.1 dex, finally bringing these two quantities into agreement and implying an older, more quiescent universe than found by previous studies at these redshifts. We corroborate these results by showing that the Prospector- SFHs are both more physically realistic and much better predictors of the evolution of the stellar mass function. Finally, we highlight examples of observational data that can break degeneracies in the current model; these observations can be incorporated into priors in future models to produce new and more accurate physical parameters.
Abstract
We present a forward-modeling framework for estimating galaxy redshift distributions from photometric surveys. Our forward model is composed of: a detailed population model describing the ...intrinsic distribution of the physical characteristics of galaxies, encoding galaxy evolution physics; a stellar population synthesis model connecting the physical properties of galaxies to their photometry; a data model characterizing the observation and calibration processes for a given survey; and explicit treatment of selection cuts, both into the main analysis sample and for the subsequent sorting into tomographic redshift bins. This approach has the appeal that it does not rely on spectroscopic calibration data, provides explicit control over modeling assumptions and builds a direct bridge between photo-
z
inference and galaxy evolution physics. In addition to redshift distributions, forward modeling provides a framework for drawing robust inferences about the statistical properties of the galaxy population more generally. We demonstrate the utility of forward modeling by estimating the redshift distributions for the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey and the Vimos VLT Deep Survey (VVDS), validating against their spectroscopic redshifts. Our baseline model is able to predict tomographic redshift distributions for GAMA and VVDS with respective biases of Δ
z
≲ 0.003 and Δ
z
≃ 0.01 on the mean redshift—comfortably accurate enough for Stage III cosmological surveys—without any hyperparameter tuning (i.e., prior to doing any fitting to those data). We anticipate that with additional hyperparameter fitting and modeling improvements, forward modeling will provide a path to accurate redshift distribution inference for Stage IV surveys.
We report the serendipitous detection of two 3 mm continuum sources found in deep ALMA Band 3 observations to study intermediate-redshift galaxies in the COSMOS field. One is near a foreground galaxy ...at 1 3, but is a previously unknown dust-obscured star-forming galaxy (DSFG) at probable zCO = 3.329, illustrating the risk of misidentifying shorter wavelength counterparts. The optical-to-millimeter spectral energy distribution (SED) favors a gray λ−0.4 attenuation curve and results in significantly larger stellar mass and SFR compared to a Calzetti starburst law, suggesting caution when relating progenitors and descendants based on these quantities. The other source is missing from all previous optical/near-infrared/submillimeter/radio catalogs ("ALMA-only"), and remains undetected even in stacked ultradeep optical (>29.6 AB) and near-infrared (>27.9 AB) images. Using the ALMA position as a prior reveals faint signal-to-noise ratio ∼ 3 measurements in stacked IRAC 3.6+4.5, ultradeep SCUBA2 850 m, and VLA 3 GHz, indicating the source is real. The SED is robustly reproduced by a massive M* = 1010.8M and Mgas = 1011M , highly obscured AV ∼ 4, star-forming SFR ∼ 300 M yr−1 galaxy at redshift z = 5.5 1.1. The ultrasmall 8 arcmin2 survey area implies a large yet uncertain contribution to the cosmic star formation rate density CSFRD(z = 5) ∼ 0.9 × 10−2 M yr−1 Mpc−3, comparable to all ultraviolet-selected galaxies combined. These results indicate the existence of a prominent population of DSFGs at z > 4, below the typical detection limit of bright galaxies found in single-dish submillimeter surveys, but with larger space densities ∼3 × 10−5 Mpc−3, higher duty cycles of 50%-100%, contributing more to the CSFRD, and potentially dominating the high-mass galaxy stellar mass function.
There has been a long-standing factor-of-two tension between the observed star formation rate density and the observed stellar mass buildup after z ∼ 2. Recently, we have proposed that sophisticated ...panchromatic SED models can resolve this tension, as these methods infer systematically higher masses and lower star formation rates than standard approaches. In a series of papers, we now extend this analysis and present a complete, self-consistent census of galaxy formation over 0.2 < z < 3 inferred with the Prospector galaxy SED-fitting code. In this work, Paper I, we present the evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function using new mass measurements of ∼105 galaxies in the 3D-HST and COSMOS-2015 surveys. We employ a new methodology to infer the mass function from the observed stellar masses: instead of fitting independent mass functions in a series of fixed redshift intervals, we construct a continuity model that directly fits for the redshift evolution of the mass function. This approach ensures a smooth picture of galaxy assembly and makes use of the full, non-Gaussian uncertainty contours in our stellar mass inferences. The resulting mass function has higher number densities at a fixed stellar mass than almost any other measurement in the literature, largely owing to the older stellar ages inferred by Prospector. The stellar mass density is ∼50% higher than previous measurements, with the offset peaking at z ∼ 1. The next two papers in this series will present the new measurements of the star-forming main sequence and the cosmic star formation rate density, respectively.
Abstract
The first few 100 Myr at
z
> 10 mark the last major uncharted epoch in the history of the universe, where only a single galaxy (GN-z11 at
z
≈ 11) is currently spectroscopically confirmed. ...Here we present a search for luminous
z
> 10 galaxies with JWST/NIRCam photometry spanning ≈1–5
μ
m and covering 49 arcmin
2
from the public JWST Early Release Science programs (CEERS and GLASS). Our most secure candidates are two
M
UV
≈ −21 systems: GLASS-z12 and GLASS-z10. These galaxies display abrupt ≳1.8 mag breaks in their spectral energy distributions (SEDs), consistent with complete absorption of flux bluewards of Ly
α
that is redshifted to
z
=
12.4
−
0.3
+
0.1
and
z
=
10.4
−
0.5
+
0.4
. Lower redshift interlopers such as quiescent galaxies with strong Balmer breaks would be comfortably detected at >5
σ
in multiple bands where instead we find no flux. From SED modeling we infer that these galaxies have already built up ∼10
9
solar masses in stars over the ≲300–400 Myr after the Big Bang. The brightness of these sources enable morphological constraints. Tantalizingly, GLASS-z10 shows a clearly extended exponential light profile, potentially consistent with a disk galaxy of
r
50
≈ 0.7 kpc. These sources, if confirmed, join GN-z11 in defying number density forecasts for luminous galaxies based on Schechter UV luminosity functions, which require a survey area >10× larger than we have studied here to find such luminous sources at such high redshifts. They extend evidence from lower redshifts for little or no evolution in the bright end of the UV luminosity function into the cosmic dawn epoch, with implications for just how early these galaxies began forming. This, in turn, suggests that future deep JWST observations may identify relatively bright galaxies to much earlier epochs than might have been anticipated.
PDF
