Farmland abandonment is a widespread land-use change in temperate regions, due to increasing yields on productive lands, conservation policies, and the increasing imports of agricultural products ...from other regions. Assessing the environmental outcomes of abandonment and the potential for recultivation hinges on incomplete knowledge about the spatial patterns of fallow and abandoned farmland, especially at broad geographic scales. Our goals were to develop a methodology to map active and fallow land using MODIS Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series and to provide the first European-wide map of the extent of abandoned farmland (cropland and grassland) and recultivation. We used a geographically well-distributed training dataset to classify active and fallow farmland annually from 2001 to 2012 using a Random Forests classifier and validated the maps using independent observations from the field and from satellite images. The annual maps had an average overall accuracy of 90.1% (average user's accuracy of the fallow class was 73.9%), and we detected an average of 128.7 million hectares (Mha) of fallow land (24.4% of all farmland). Using the fallow/active time series, we mapped fallow frequency and hotspots of farmland abandonment and recultivation of unused farmland. We found a total of 46.1Mha of permanently fallow farmland, much of which may be linked to abandonment that occurred after the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc. Up to 7.6Mha of farmland was additionally abandoned from 2001 to 2012, mainly in Eastern Europe, Southern Scandinavia, and Europe's mountain regions. Yet, recultivation is widespread too (up to 11.2Mha) and occurred predominantly in Eastern Europe (e.g., European Russia, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, and Lithuania) and in the Balkans. We also tested the robustness of our maps in relation to different abandonment and recultivation definitions, highlighting the usefulness of time series approaches to overcome problems when mapping transient land-use change. Our maps provide, to our knowledge, the first European-wide assessment of fallow, abandoned and recultivated farmland, thereby forming a basis for assessing the environmental outcomes of abandonment and recultivation and the potential of unused land for food production, bioenergy, and carbon storage.
•Mapping active and fallow farmland across Europe using MODIS NDVI time series•Translating land-use information into management intensity and land-use change trajectories•Approach allows various definitions of farmland abandonment and recultivation.•Farmland abandonment continues to be a crucial land change process in Europe.•Recultivation of unused farmland increasingly outweighs farmland abandonment.
Global agricultural production will likely need to increase in the future due to population growth, changing diets, and the rising importance of bioenergy. Intensifying already existing cropland is ...often considered more sustainable than converting more natural areas. Unfortunately, our understanding of cropping patterns and intensity is weak, especially at broad geographic scales. We characterized and mapped cropping systems in Europe, a region containing diverse cropping systems, using four indicators: (a) cropping frequency (number of cropped years), (b) multi-cropping (number of harvests per year), (c) fallow cycles, and (d) crop duration ratio (actual time under crops) based on the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from 2000 to 2012. Second, we used these cropping indicators and self-organizing maps to identify typical cropping systems. The resulting six clusters correspond well with other indicators of agricultural intensity (e.g., nitrogen input, yields) and reveal substantial differences in cropping intensity across Europe. Cropping intensity was highest in Germany, Poland, and the eastern European Black Earth regions, characterized by high cropping frequency, multi-cropping and a high crop duration ratio. Contrarily, we found lowest cropping intensity in eastern Europe outside the Black Earth region, characterized by longer fallow cycles. Our approach highlights how satellite image time series can help to characterize spatial patterns in cropping intensity-information that is rarely surveyed on the ground and commonly not included in agricultural statistics: our clustering approach also shows a way forward to reduce complexity when measuring multiple indicators. The four cropping indicators we used could become part of continental-scale agricultural monitoring in order to identify target regions for sustainable intensification, where trade-offs between intensification and the environmental should be explored.
Where are Europe's last primary forests? Sabatini, Francesco Maria; Burrascano, Sabina; Keeton, William S. ...
Diversity & distributions,
October 2018, Volume:
24, Issue:
9/10
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Aim: Primary forests have high conservation value but are rare in Europe due to historic land use. Yet many primary forest patches remain unmapped, and it is unclear to what extent they are ...effectively protected. Our aim was to (1) compile the most comprehensive European-scale map of currently known primary forests, (2) analyse the spatial determinants characterizing their location and (3) locate areas where so far unmapped primary forests likely occur. Location: Europe. Methods: We aggregated data from a literature review, online questionnaires and 32 datasets of primary forests. We used boosted regression trees to explore which biophysical, socio-economic and forest-related variables explain the current distribution of primary forests. Finally, we predicted and mapped the relative likelihood of primary forest occurrence at a 1-km resolution across Europe. Results: Data on primary forests were frequently incomplete or inconsistent among countries. Known primary forests covered 1.4 Mha in 32 countries (0.7% of Europe's forest area). Most of these forests were protected (89%), but only 46% of them strictly. Primary forests mostly occurred in mountain and boreal areas and were unevenly distributed across countries, biogeographical regions and forest types. Unmapped primary forests likely occur in the least accessible and populated areas, where forests cover a greater share of land, but wood demand historically has been low. Main conclusions: Despite their outstanding conservation value, primary forests are rare and their current distribution is the result of centuries of land use and forest management. The conservation outlook for primary forests is uncertain as many are not strictly protected and most are small and fragmented, making them prone to extinction debt and human disturbance. Predicting where unmapped primary forests likely occur could guide conservation efforts, especially in Eastern Europe where large areas of primary forest still exist but are being lost at an alarming pace.
•We map megatrends to gain foresight on the future of European agriculture.•Mapped megatrends are climate, demography, value system, and environmental regulation.•Different regions face pressures ...from different combinations of megatrends.•Regions range from highly susceptible to systemic change to highly persistent.•For sustainability transitions, megatrends inform what governance is needed.
A range of intensifying pressures is making the future of European agriculture dynamic and contested. Insights into these pressures are needed to inform debates about the future of the sector. In this study, we use a foresight approach to identify, quantify and map megatrends. Megatrends are long-term driving forces which are observable today and will likely have transformational potential in the future. By mapping these megatrends at the regional scale, we establish a geography of megatrends and detect where they coincide. Four megatrends significant for the future of European agriculture at the regional scale are assessed: Climate change, demographic change, (post-) productivism shifts, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The direction and intensity of these megatrends differs between regions, which drives regions into different systemic lock-ins or dynamics. In most regions, megatrends converge to destabilize the current system, forewarning impending systemic changes. While the specific megatrends contributing to this instability differ regionally, this result highlights that many regions are on a dynamic rather than stable trajectory, and the governance challenge is to steer these dynamics towards a desirable future. However, some regions are found to be highly persistent, indicating that megatrends reinforce business as usual, and change needs to be triggered through purposeful governance. In a minority of regions megatrends may drive marginalization as the current system becomes increasingly unviable. We argue that research and policies concerning agricultural sustainability transitions should be cognizant of the regional diversity of European megatrends and the pressures they create.
Hotspots of land use change in Europe Kuemmerle, Tobias; Levers, Christian; Erb, Karlheinz ...
Environmental research letters,
06/2016, Volume:
11, Issue:
6
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Assessing changes in the extent and management intensity of land use is crucial to understanding land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, changes in the spatial patterns ...of land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to changes in the extent of land uses, remains unclear for many world regions. We compiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatially-explicit land-use change indicators capturing changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropland, grazing land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990–2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity changes. We found a clear East–West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropland declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropland contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land-use change hotspot during 1990–2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of land use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of land-use changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering changes in the extent and management intensity of land use, as well as feedbacks among land-use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of land-use change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of land-use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized land-use policy making.
•We present a landscape characterization based on three dimensions of rural cultural landscapes.•Landscapes are categorized using maps of landscape structure, management intensity, and landscape ...value and meaning.•We map distinct spatial patterns of cultural landscapes across Europe.•Hotspots of cultural landscapes were mainly found in the Mediterranean.
Almost all rural areas in Europe have been shaped or altered by humans and can be considered cultural landscapes, many of which now are considered to entail valuable cultural heritage. Current dynamics in land management have put cultural landscapes under a huge pressure of agricultural intensification and land abandonment. To prevent the loss of cultural landscapes, knowledge on the location of different types of cultural landscapes is needed. In this paper, we present a characterization of European cultural landscapes based on the prevalence of three key dimensions of cultural landscapes: landscape structure, management intensity, and value and meaning. We mapped these dimensions across Europe at a 1-km resolution by combining proxies on management intensity and landscape structure with new indicators such as social media usage and registered traditional food products. We integrated the three dimensions into a continuous “cultural landscape index” that allows for a characterization of Europe’s rural landscapes. The characterization identifies hotspots of cultural landscapes, where all three dimensions are present, such as in the Mediterranean. On the other hand, Eastern and Northern European cultural landscapes are mostly characterized by only one of the dimensions. Our paper can help to identify pressures to cultural landscapes and thus to target measures for the conservation of these landscapes, to link similar landscapes in different regions, and to inform policy design on the most important characteristics of cultural landscapes at a regional scale.
Scattered trees support high levels of farmland biodiversity and ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes, but they are threatened by agricultural intensification, urbanization, and land ...abandonment. This study aimed to map and quantify the decline of orchard meadows (scattered fruit trees of high nature conservation value) for a region in Southwestern Germany for the 1968 2009 period and to identify the driving forces of this decline. We derived orchard meadow loss from 1968 and 2009 aerial images and used a boosted regression trees modelling framework to assess the relative importance of 18 environmental, demographic, and socio-economic variables to test five alternative hypothesis explaining orchard meadow loss. We found that orchard meadow loss occurred in flatter areas, in areas where smaller plot sizes and fragmented orchard meadows prevailed, and in areas near settlements and infrastructure. The analysis did not confirm that orchard meadow loss was higher in areas where agricultural intensification was stronger and in areas of lower implementation levels of conservation policies. Our results demonstrated that the influential drivers of orchard meadow loss were those that reduce economic profitability and increase opportunity costs for orchards, providing incentives for converting orchard meadows to other, more profitable land uses. These insights could be taken up by local- and regional-level conservation policies to identify the sites of persistent orchard meadows in agricultural landscapes that would be prioritized in conservation efforts.
Agricultural expansion into tropical and subtropical forests often leads to major social-ecological trade-offs. Yet, despite ever-more detailed information on where deforestation occurs, how ...agriculture expands into forests remains unclear, which is hampered by a lack of spatially and temporally detailed reconstruction of agricultural expansion. Here, we developed and mapped a novel set of metrics that quantify agricultural frontier processes at unprecedented spatial and temporal detail. Specifically, we first derived consistent annual time series of land-use/cover to, second, describe archetypical patterns of frontier expansion, pertaining to the speed, the diffusion and activity of deforestation, as well as post-deforestation land use. We exemplify this approach for understanding agricultural frontier expansion across the entire South American Chaco (1.1 million km 2 ), a global deforestation hotspot. Our study provides three major insights. First, agricultural expansion has been rampant in the Chaco, with more than 19.3 million ha of woodlands converted between 1985 and 2020, including a surge in deforestation after 2019. Second, land-use trajectories connected to frontier processes have changed in major ways over the 35 year study period we studied, including substantial regional variations. For instance, while ranching expansion drove most of the deforestation in the 1980s and 1990s, cropland expansion dominated during the mid-2000s in Argentina, but not in Paraguay. Similarly, 40% of all areas deforested were initially used for ranching, but later on converted to cropping. Accounting for post-deforestation land-use change is thus needed to properly attribute deforestation and associated environmental impacts, such as carbon emissions or biodiversity loss, to commodities. Finally, we identified major, recurrent frontier types that may be a useful spatial template for land governance to match policies to specific frontier situations. Collectively, our study reveals the diversity of frontier processes and how frontier metrics can capture and structure this diversity to uncover major patterns of human–nature interactions, which can be used to guide spatially-targeted policies.
The world's grasslands, both natural and managed, provide food and many non-provisioning ecosystem services. Although most grasslands today are used for livestock grazing or fodder production, little ...is known about the spatial patterns of grassland management intensity, especially at broad geographic scales. Using the European Union as a case study, we mapped mowing frequency as a key indicator of grassland management intensity. We used MODIS NDVI time series from 2000-2012 to map mowing frequency using a spline-fitting algorithm that detects up to five mowing events within a single growing season. We combined mowing frequency maps with existing maps of livestock distribution and grassland management frequency to identify clusters of similar grassland management intensity across Europe. Our results highlight generally high mowing frequency in areas of high grassland productivity, especially in Ireland, northern and central France, and the Netherlands. Our analyses also show distinct clusters of similar grassland management, representing different grassland-management intensity regimes. High intensity clusters occurred particularly in western and southern Europe, especially in Ireland, in the northern and central parts of France and Spain, and the Netherlands but also in northern and southern Germany and eastern Poland. Low intensity clusters were found mainly in central and eastern Europe and in mountainous regions but also in Extremadura in Spain, Wales and western England (UK). Generally, our analyses emphasize the usefulness of jointly using satellite time series and agricultural statistics to monitor grassland intensity across broad geographic extents. Our maps allow for a new, spatially-detailed view of management intensity in grassland systems and may help to improve regionally targeted land-use and conservation policies.
Agricultural expansion threatens biodiversity due to habitat loss and fragmentation. In the Gran Chaco, a global deforestation hotspot, rampant cropland and pasture expansion raise concerns about the ...sustainability of these land-use changes. Zoning policies were recently enacted in the Argentine Chaco to balance agriculture and conservation, yet the environmental outcomes of implementing these policies remain unclear. Here, we focused on the province of Formosa (Argentina) to evaluate how fully implementing zoning there would affect forest loss and connectivity, and how multiscale landscape planning could enhance environmental outcomes. Specifically, we simulated potential future forest cover for different spatial planning scenarios to assess the effect of (a) implementing regional corridors and (b) enacting additional policies to minimize forest fragmentation at the plot level, under both high and low deforestation rates. We then quantified forest connectivity and fragmentation using morphological image segmentation and landscape indices. Our results show that implementing regional corridors reduced the extent of potential deforestation by 650,000 ha (43%), and this alone strongly increased forest connectivity compared with scenarios without corridors. However, how deforestation would be carried out at the plot level was critically important. Plot-level spatial planning could have a strong and positive effect on mitigating fragmentation and on maintaining connectivity, even in scenarios with high deforestation rates (i.e., reducing the number of forest fragments by up to 35%, increasing the core forest by up to 6%). Moreover, under high deforestation rates, implementing regional corridors and plot-level design had a strong complementary effect on mitigating forest fragmentation (17% less forest fragments than when implementing either of the two strategies alone). Our analyses clearly highlight the opportunities of multiscale spatial planning and the need to complement broad-scale zoning with plot-level landscape design in order to mitigate the negative impacts of deforestation in the Chaco and other active agricultural frontiers.
PDF
